; ; ; "ActiveFedora::Aggregation::ListSource" . a , ; "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions"; ; "batchuser@example.com"; "Litterman, Robert B.", "Sims, Christopher A.", "Doan, Thomas"; "Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis"; "Forecasting", "Macroeconomics", "Bayesian methods"; "E27 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications", "C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General"; "This paper develops a forecasting procedure based on a Bayesian method for estimating vector autoregressions. The procedure is applied to ten macroeconomic variables and is shown to improve out-of-sample forecasts relative to univariate equations. Although cross-variables responses are damped by the prior, considerable interaction among the variables is shown to be captured by the estimates. We provide unconditional forecasts as of 1982:12 and 1963:3* We also describe how a model such as this can be used to make conditional projections and to analyse policy alternatives. As an example, we analyze a Congressional Budget Office forecast made in 1982:12. While no automatic causal interpretations arise from models like ours, they provide a detailed characterization of the dynamic statistical interdependence of a set of economic variables, which may help in evaluating causal hypotheses, without containing any such hypotheses themselves."^^; "1983-08"; "2018-03-13T20:38:06.735894753+00:00"^^; "https://doi.org/10.21034/wp.243"; ; "19860700fedmsr93"; "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/"; "2020-05-08T20:25:23.475202917+00:00"^^; "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/"; "Research Paper"; "727", "192", "459"; "Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department)"; "243"; "Forecasting", "Macroeconomics", "Bayesian methods"; ; ; ; ; "Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department"; "Published in _Econometric Reviews_ (vol. 3, iss. 1, 1984, pp. 1-100), https://doi.org/10.1080/07474938408800053."^^; ; "Publication" . ; .