Comparing Predictive Accuracy I: An Asymptotic Test

Public
Creator Series Issue number
  • 052
Date created
  • 1991-09-01
Abstract
  • We propose and evaluate an explicit test of the null hypothesis of no difference in the accuracy of two competing forecasts. In contrast to previously developed tests, a wide variety of accuracy measures can be used (in particular, the loss function need not be quadratic, and need not even be symmetric), and forecast errors can be non-Gaussian, nonzero mean, serially correlated and contemporaneously correlated.

Subject (JEL) Related information Corporate Author
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
Publisher
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
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