Creator

• Chin, Daniel M.
• Geweke, John
• Miller, Preston J.

Series

• Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department)

Issue number

• 267

Date created

• 2000-06

Abstract

• This paper presents a new method for predicting turning points. The paper formally defines a turning point; develops a probit model for estimating the probability of a turning point; and then examines both the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performance of the model. The model performs better than some other methods for predicting turning points.

Corporate Author

• Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department

Publisher

• Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Resource type

• Research Paper

DOI

•  https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.267

License

• Creative Commons BY-NC Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International

In Collection:

• Staff Reports

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