Tests for Structural Change and Prediction Intervals for the Reduced Forms of Two Structural Models of the U.S.: The FRB-MIT and Michigan Quarterly Models

Creator Series Issue number
  • 019
Date Created
  • 1972
  • Prediction interval tests are applied to the reduced forms of two quarterly models of the U.S. (the "old" FRB-MIT model and the Michigan model). The results illustrate the range of tests one can perform on an estimated simultaneous equation model. In particular, the tests determine whether ex post forecast errors can be attributed to structural deficiencies of the models. The paper examines confidence regions and other aspects of forecast distributions-comparisons between mean forecasts and nonstochastic forecasts, comparisons between, forecast variances from multiperiod endogenous simulations and those from one period simulations, and comparisons between forecast variances and residual variances.

Subject (JEL) Palavra-chave Alternative title
  • Notes and preliminary results for "Ex post predictive tests of large scale econometric models" / T. Muench, A. Rolnick, N. Wallace, W. Weiler.
Date Modified
  • 07/11/2019
Corporate Author
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
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