Tests for structural change and prediction intervals for the reduced forms of two structural models of the U.S. : the FRB-MIT and Michigan quarterly models Público Deposited

Creator Series Issue number
  • 19
Date Created
  • 1972
Abstract
  • Prediction interval tests are applied to the reduced forms of two quarterly models of the U.S. (the "old" FRB-MIT model and the Michigan model). The results illustrate the range of tests one can perform on an estimated simultaneous equation model. In particular, the tests determine whether ex post forecast errors can be attributed to structural deficiencies of the models. The paper examines confidence regions and other aspects of forecast distributions-comparisons between mean forecasts and nonstochastic forecasts, comparisons between ,forecast variances from multiperiod endogenous simulations and those from oneperiod simulations, and comparisons between forecast variances and residual variances.

Subject (JEL) Palabra Clave Alternative title
  • Notes and preliminary results for "Ex post predictive tests of large scale econometric models" / T. Muench, A. Rolnick, N. Wallace, W. Weiler.
Colaboradores Date Modified
  • 08/22/2018
Publisher
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Division.
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