The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility

Public
Creator Series Issue number
  • 387
Date Created
  • 2007-03-01
Abstract
  • We investigate the consequences of demographic change for business cycle analysis. We find that changes in the age composition of the labor force account for a significant fraction of the variation in business cycle volatility observed in the U.S. and other G7 economies. During the postwar period, these countries experienced dramatic demographic change, although details regarding extent and timing differ from place to place. Using panel-data methods, we exploit this variation to show that the age composition of the workforce has a large and statistically significant effect on cyclical volatility. We conclude by relating these findings to the recent decline in U.S. business cycle volatility. Using both simple accounting exercises and a quantitative general equilibrium model, we find that demographic change accounts for a significant part of this moderation.

Subject (JEL) Related information Corporate Author
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department
Publisher
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Resource type DOI
License

Relationships

In Collection:
Last modified

Downloadable Content

Download PDF

Zipped Files

Download a zip file that contains all the files in this work.

Items