; ; ; "ActiveFedora::Aggregation::ListSource" . a , ; "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour"; ; "batchuser@example.com"; "Sims, Christopher A.", "Uhlig, Harald, 1961-"; "Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis"; "Bayesian econometrics", "Unit roots", "Autoregression"; "C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General"; "For the first-order univariate autoregression without constant term, the joint p.d.f (corresponding to a flat prior) for the true coeffecient _p_ and the least squares estimate _p-hat_ is estimated by Monte Carlo and graphically displayed. The graphs show how the symmetric distribution of _p|p-hat_ coexists with the assymetric distribution of _p-hat|p_. Treating tail areas of the _p-hat|p_ distribution as if they summarized evidence in the data about the location of _p_ amounts to ignoring the shrinkage in the variance of _p-hat|p_ as _p_ approaches one. Prior p.d.f.'s implicit in treating classical significance levels as if they were Bayesian conditional probabilities are calculated. They are shown to depend sensitively on _p-hat_ and to put substantial probability on _p_'s above one."^^; "1988-06-01"; "2019-05-21T20:07:50.84635962+00:00"^^; "https://doi.org/10.21034/dp.4"; ; "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/"; "Wed Apr 22 16:45:34 2020"; "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/"; "Research Paper"; "727", "802"; "Discussion paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics)"; "004"; "Autoregression", "Unit roots", "Bayesian econometrics"; ; ; ; ; "Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics"; "Published in: _Econometrica_ (Vol. 59, No. 6, November 1991, pp. 1591-1599) https://doi.org/10.2307/2938280."^^; ; "Publication" . ; .