; ; ; "ActiveFedora::Aggregation::ListSource" . a , ; "A Systems Approach to Recursive Economic Forecasting and Seasonal Adjustment"; ; "batchuser@example.com"; "Armitage, Peter", "Young, Peter C., 1939-", "Ng, Cho"; "Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis"; "C51 - Model Construction and Estimation", "C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection"; "The paper discusses a new, fully recursive approach to the adaptive modeling, forecasting and seasonal adjustment of nonstationary economic time-series. The procedure is based around a time variable parameter (TVP) version of the well known “component” or “structural” model. It employs a novel method of sequential spectral decomposition (SSD), based on recursive state-space smoothing, to decompose the series into a number of quasi-orthogonal components. This SSD procedure can be considered as a complete approach to the problem of model identification and estimation, or it can be used as a first step in maximum likelihood estimation. Finally, the paper illustrates the overall adaptive approach by considering a practical example of a UK unemployment series which exhibits marked nonstationarity caused by various economic factors. "^^; "1989-01-01"; "2019-05-21T19:58:22.032271071+00:00"^^; "https://doi.org/10.21034/dp.8"; ; "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/"; "Wed Apr 22 16:47:47 2020"; "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/"; "Research Paper"; "561", "872", "34"; "Discussion paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics)"; "008"; ; ; ; ; "Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics"; """Published in: _Computers and Mathematics with Applications_ (Vol. 18, No. 6-7, 1989, pp. 481-501) https://doi.org/10.1016/0898-1221(89)90102-8. Published in: Mittnik, S., ed. _System-Theoretic Methods in Economic Modelling II_. Pergamon, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1016/C2009-0-14787-6."""^^; ; "Publication" . ; .