Explaining forecast revisions Pubblico Deposited

Creator Series Issue number
  • 355
Date Created
  • 1988-06
Abstract
  • Forecasts are routinely revised, and these revisions are often the subject of informal analysis and discussion. This paper argues 1) that forecast revisions are analyzed because they help forecasters and forecast users to evaluate forecasts and forecasting procedures, and 2) that these analyses can be sharpened by using the forecasting model to systematically express its forecast revision as the sum of components identified with specific data revisions and forecast errors. An algorithm for this purpose is explained and illustrated.

Subject (JEL) Parola chiave Contributori Date Modified
  • 03/15/2018
Publisher
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Division.
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