; ; ; "ActiveFedora::Aggregation::ListSource" . a , ; "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions"; ; "batchuser@example.com"; "Sims, Christopher A.", "Doan, Thomas", "Litterman, Robert B."; "Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis"; "Macroeconomic modeling", "Conditional projections", "Vector autoregressions", "Rayesian analysis", "Forecasting"; """This paper develops a forecasting procedure based on a Bayesian method for estimating vector autoregressions. We apply the procedure to 10 macroeconomic variables and show that it produces more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than univariate equations do. Although cross-variable responses are damped by the prior, our estimates capture considerable interaction among the variables. We provide unconditional forecasts as of 1982:12 and 1983:3. We also describe how a model such as this can be used to make conditional projections and analyze policy alternatives. As an example, we analyze a Congressional Budget Office forecast made in 1982:12. While no automatic casual interpretations arise from models like ours, such models provide a detailed characterization of the dynamic statistical interdependence of a set of economic variables. That information may help evaluate casual hypotheses without containing any such hypotheses."""^^; "1986-07"; "2019-10-21T15:59:24.665483698+00:00"^^; "https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.93"; ; "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/"; "Thu Nov 7 22:19:28 2019"; "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/"; "Research Paper"; "192", "459", "727"; "Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department)"; "093"; "Conditional projections", "Vector autoregressions", "Forecasting", "Macroeconomic modeling", "Rayesian analysis"; ; ; ; ; "Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department"; "Published in: _Econometric Reviews_ (Vol. 3, No. 1, 1984, pp. 1-100) https://doi.org/10.1080/07474938408800053. "^^; ; "Publication" . ; .