Creator: Faust, Jon. Series: Conference on economics and politics Abstract:
The Federal Reserve Act erected a unique structure of government decisionmaking, independent with elaborate rules balancing internal power. Historical evidence suggests that this outcome was a response to public conflict over inflation's redistributive powers. This paper documents and formalizes this argument: in the face of conflict over redistributive inflation, policy by majority can lead to policy that is worse, even fo the majority, than obvious alternatives. The bargaining solution of an independent board with properly balanced interests leads to a better outcome. Technically, this paper extends earlier work in making policy preferences endogenous and in extending the notion of equilibirum policy to such a world. Substantively, this work provides a simple grounding of policy preferences-largely missing heretofore-linking game theoretic models of policy to historical evidence about the formation of an independent monetary authority.
学科: E58 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Central banks and their policies, N12 - Macroeconomics and monetary economics ; Growth and fluctuations - United States ; Canada : 1913-, and E52 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Monetary policy
Creator: Geweke, John. Series: New methods in business cycle research Abstract:
A simple stochastic model of the firm is constructed in which a dynamic monopolist who maximizes a discounted profits stream subject to labor adjustment costs and given factor prices sets output price as a distributed lag of past wages and input prices. If the observed relation of wages and prices in manufacturing arises solely from this behavior then wages and input prices are exogenous with respect to output prices. In tests using quarterly and monthly series for the straight time wage, an index of raw materials prices and the wholesale price index for manufacturing and its durable and nondurable subsectors this hypothesis cannot be refuted for the period 1955:1 to 1971:11. During the period 1926:1 to 1940:11, however, symmetrically opposite behavior is observed manufacturing wholesale prices are exogenous with respect to the wage rate, a relation which can arise if dynamically monopsonistic firms compete in product markets. Neither structural relation has withstood direct wage and price controls.
关键词: Wages, Manufacturing, Labor, Wholesale, and Prices 学科: E31 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Price level ; Inflation ; Deflation, L60 - Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General, and E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles
Creator: Bryant, John B. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 155 Abstract:
A new approach to market behavior is suggested. This approach has a coherent game theoretic foundaton, addresses such anomalous economic behaviors as strikes, rigid wages and unemployment, regulation of financial markets, de-presssion, and nonmarket allocation, and, more generally, provides insights for Finance, Oligopoly Theory, Industrial Organization, and Macroeconomics. The central theme of the approach is that exchange technologies are a basic building block in a model, as are tastes, endowments, and production technologies. Moreover, the key feature of an institution of exchange is that it allows the making of a binding final offer.
关键词: Bargaining problem, Market behavior, and Competitive allocation 学科: D51 - General equilibrium and disequilibrium - Exchange and production economies and C72 - Game theory and bargaining theory - Noncooperative games
Creator: Chari, V. V. and Hopenhayn, Hugo Andres. Series: Models of economic growth and development Abstract:
We present a model of vintage human capital. The economy exhibits exogenous deterministic technological change. Technology requires skills that are specific to the vintage. A stationary competitive equilibrium is defined and shown to exist and be unique, as well as Pareto optimal. The stationary equilibrium is characterized by an endogenous distribution of skilled workers across vintages. The distribution is shown to be single peaked, and under general conditions there is a lag between the time when a technology appears and the peak of its usage, what is known as diffusion. An increase in the rate of exogenous technological charge shirts the distribution of human capital to more recent vintages and increases the relative wage of the unskilled workers in each vintage.
学科: J24 - Demand and supply of labor - Human capital ; Skills ; Occupational choice ; Labor productivity, O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, and O31 - Technological change ; Research and development - Innovation and invention : Processes and incentives
Creator: Chari, V. V. and Hopenhayn, Hugo Andres. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 326 Abstract:
'Structural unemployment' is said to occur in regions or 'sectors' of the economy as a consequence of technological changes. In this paper we present a model which provides an environment which gives rise to unemployment which could be labelled structural unemployment. There is exogenous technological change and vintage specific human capital. Unemployment arises as workers specialized in a particular technology within a vintage decide to search for a job within their vintage, so that their previously acquired special skills are used, instead of getting employed as unskilled workers in the newest vintage. As the rate of technological change increases, the incentives to reassign specialized workers to their same vintage, inccuring therefore in search costs, becomes less attractive, and in consequence the fraction of specialized workers doing search activities decreases. This provides some rationale for the negative correlation between rates of growth and unemployment observed in the data.
关键词: Vintage human capital, Structural unemployment, Skills, Human capital, Growth, Labor market, Unemployment, and Technology 学科: J24 - Demand and supply of labor - Human capital ; Skills ; Occupational choice ; Labor productivity and E24 - Macroeconomics : Consumption, saving, production, employment, and investment - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational income distribution ; Aggregate human capital
Creator: Chari, V. V. and Hopenhayn, Hugo Andres. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 375 Abstract:
This paper develops a model of vintage human capital in which each technology requires vintage specific skills. We examine the properties of a stationary equilibrium for our economy. The stationary equilibrium is characterized by an endogenous distribution of skilled workers across vintages. The distribution is shown to be single peaked and, under general conditions, there is a lag between the time when a technology appears and the peak of it's usage, a phenomenon known as diffusion. An increase in the rate of exogenous technological change shifts the distribution of human capital to more recent vintages thereby increasing the diffusion rate.
关键词: Workers, Technology, Skills, and Innovation 学科: O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, O31 - Technological change ; Research and development - Innovation and invention : Processes and incentives, and J24 - Demand and supply of labor - Human capital ; Skills ; Occupational choice ; Labor productivity