Creator: Bryant, John B. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 155 Abstract:
A new approach to market behavior is suggested. This approach has a coherent game theoretic foundaton, addresses such anomalous economic behaviors as strikes, rigid wages and unemployment, regulation of financial markets, depresssion, and nonmarket allocation, and, more generally, provides insights for Finance, Oligopoly Theory, Industrial Organization, and Macroeconomics. The central theme of the approach is that exchange technologies are a basic building block in a model, as are tastes, endowments, and production technologies. Moreover, the key feature of an institution of exchange is that it allows the making of a binding final offer.
关键词: Competitive allocation, Market behavior, and Bargaining problem 学科: C72 - Noncooperative Games and D51 - Exchange and Production Economies
Creator: Lagos, Ricardo and Rocheteau, Guillaume Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 408 Abstract:
We develop a search-theoretic model of financial intermediation and use it to study how trading frictions affect the distribution of asset holdings, asset prices, efficiency, and standard measures of liquidity. A distinctive feature of our theory is that it allows for unrestricted asset holdings, so market participants can accommodate trading frictions by adjusting their asset positions. We show that these individual responses of asset demands constitute a fundamental feature of illiquid markets: they are a key determinant of bid-ask spreads, trade volume, and trading delays—all the dimensions of market liquidity that search-based theories seek to explain.
This paper is an extension of Ricardo Lagos’s work while he was in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
关键词: Execution delay, Liquidity, Search, Trade volume, and Bid-ask spread 学科: D10 - Household Behavior: General and D83 - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
Creator: Chari, V. V. and Christiano, Lawrence J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 552 Abstract:
The ﬁnancialization view is that increased trading in commodity futures markets is associated with increases in the growth rate and volatility of commodity spot prices. This view gained credence be-cause in the 2000s trading volume increased sharply and many commodity prices rose and became more volatile. Using a large panel dataset we constructed, which includes commodities with and with-out futures markets, we ﬁnd no empirical link between increased futures market trading and changes in price behavior. Our data sheds light on the economic role of futures markets. The conventional view is that futures markets provide one-way insurance by allowing outsiders, traders with no direct interest in a commodity, to insure insiders, traders with a direct interest. The data are not consistent with the conventional view and we argue that they point to an alternative mutual insurance view, in which all participants insure each other. We formalize this view in a model and show that it is consistent with key features of the data.
关键词: Spot price volatility, Open interest, Futures market returns, and Net financial flows 学科: E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy, G23 - Pension Funds; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors, and G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
Creator: Adam, Klaus, Marcet, Albert, and Nicolini, Juan Pablo Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 720 Abstract:
Consumption-based asset pricing models with time-separable preferences can generate realistic amounts of stock price volatility if one allows for small deviations from rational expectations. We consider rational investors who entertain subjective prior beliefs about price behavior that are not equal but close to rational expectations. Optimal behavior then dictates that investors learn about price behavior from past price observations. We show that this imparts momentum and mean reversion into the equilibrium behavior of the price-dividend ratio, similar to what can be observed in the data. When estimating the model on U.S. stock price data using the method of simulated moments, we find that it can quantitatively account for the observed volatility of returns, the volatility and persistence of the price-dividend ratio, and the predictability of long-horizon returns. For reasonable degrees of risk aversion, the model generates up to one-half of the equity premium observed in the data. It also passes a formal statistical test for the overall goodness of fit, provided one excludes the equity premium from the set of moments to be matched.
关键词: Subjective beliefs, Asset pricing, Learning, and Internal rationality 学科: E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy and G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
Creator: Boyd, John H. and Jagannathan, Ravi Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 173 Abstract:
This study examines common stock prices around ex-dividend dates. Such price data usually contain a mixture of observations—some with and some without arbitrageurs and/or dividend capturers active. Our theory predicts that such mixing will result in some nonlinear relation between percentage price drop and dividend yield—not the commonly assumed linear relation. This prediction and another important prediction of theory are supported empirically. In a variety of tests, marginal price drop is not significantly different from the dividend amount. Thus, over the last several decades, one-for-one marginal price drop has been an excellent (average) rule of thumb.
学科: G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates and G14 - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
Creator: Eichenbaum, Martin S. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 148 Abstract:
A critical roadblock to modelling inventories of finished goods has been the claim that production and inventory decisions of a perfectly competitive firm are determined independently of each other. A basic goal of this study is to specify fundamental preferences of economic agents, technologies, constraints and market structures that are, in a rough way, capable of generating patterns of serial correlation and cross correlation between inventories and employment of factors of production that are consistent with those observed in the data. The claim is made that the time series for inventories, output and employment can be interpreted as emerging from a well specified dynamic, stochastic competitive equilibrium in which economic agents are assumed to form rational expectations about variables not included in their information sets. Inventories and employment will not be related in a direct way if and only if the price elasticity of demand for output is equal to infinity.
关键词: Time series analysis and Competitive equilibrium 学科: C32 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models and D51 - Exchange and Production Economies
Creator: Bils, Mark, Klenow, Peter J., and Malin, Benjamin A. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 516 Abstract:
Employment and hours appear far more cyclical than dictated by the behavior of productivity and consumption. This puzzle has been called “the labor wedge” — a cyclical intratemporal wedge between the marginal product of labor and the marginal rate of substitution of consumption for leisure. The intratemporal wedge can be broken into a product market wedge (price markup) and a labor market wedge (wage markup). Based on the wages of employees, the literature has attributed the intratemporal wedge almost entirely to labor market distortions. Because employee wages may be smoothed versions of the true cyclical price of labor, we instead examine the self-employed and intermediate inputs, respectively. Looking at the past quarter century in the United States, we find that price markup movements are at least as important as wage markup movements — including during the Great Recession and its aftermath. Thus, sticky prices and other forms of countercyclical markups deserve a central place in business cycle research, alongside sticky wages and matching frictions.
关键词: Wage markups, Business cycles, Labor wedge, and Price markups 学科: E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles and E24 - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
Creator: McGrattan, Ellen R. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 370 Abstract:
Real business cycles are recurrent fluctuations in an economy’s incomes, products, and factor inputs—especially labor—that are due to nonmonetary sources. These sources include changes in technology, tax rates and government spending, tastes, government regulation, terms of trade, and energy prices. Most real business cycle (RBC) models are variants or extensions of a neoclassical growth model. One such prototype is introduced. It is then shown how RBC theorists, applying the methodology of Kydland and Prescott (Econometrica 1982), use theory to make predictions about actual time series. Extensions of the prototype model, current issues, and open questions are also discussed.
关键词: Productivity shocks, Real business cycles, International business cycles, Home production, Household budget constraint, Competitive equilibrium, Labour-market search, Technology shocks, Stochastic growth models, Total factor productivity, Labour supply, Real exchange rates, Markov processes, Stabilization policies, and Research and development 学科: D10 - Household Behavior: General and D40 - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design: General
Creator: Afonso, Gara and Lagos, Ricardo Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 708 Abstract:
We use minute-by-minute daily transaction-level payments data to document the cross-sectional and time-series behavior of the estimated prices and quantities negotiated by commercial banks in the fed funds market. We study the frequency and volume of trade, the size distribution of loans, the distribution of bilateral fed funds rates, and the intraday dynamics of the reserve balances held by commercial banks. We find evidence of the importance of the liquidity provision achieved by commercial banks that act as de facto intermediaries of fed funds.
关键词: Federal funds rates, Monetary policy, and Federal funds market 学科: E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages, and E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems
Creator: Drozd, Lucasz and Nosal, Jaromir B. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 411 Abstract:
This paper develops a theory of pricing-to-market driven by marketing and bargaining frictions. Our key innovation is a capital theoretic model of marketing in which relations with customers are valuable. In our model, producers search and form long-lasting relations with their customers, and marketing helps overcome the search frictions involved in forming such matches. In the context of international business cycle patterns, the model accounts for observations that are puzzles for a large class of theories: (i) pricing-to-market, (ii) positive correlation of aggregate real export and import prices, (iii) excess volatility of the real exchange rate over the terms of trade, and (iv) low short-run and high long-run price elasticity of international trade flows. The behavior of quantities is shown to be on par with standard international business cycle theories that, in contrast to our model, assume low intrinsic elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods.
关键词: Market share, Market prices, Price elasticity, Retail stores, Foreign exchange rates, Import prices, Marketing, Real exchange rates , and Price volatility 学科: F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics, M31 - Marketing, F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade, E13 - General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical, F44 - International Business Cycles, and F31 - Foreign Exchange