Creator: Altig, David, 1956-, Christiano, Lawrence J., Eichenbaum, Martin S., and Lindé, Jesper. Series: Joint commitee on business and financial analysis Abstract:
We report estimates of the dynamic effects of a technology shock, and then use these to estimate the parameters of a dynamic general equilibrium model with money. We find: (i) a positive technology shock drives up hours worked, consumption, investment and output; (ii) the positive response of hours worked reflects that the Fed has in practice accommodated technology shocks; (iii) model parameter values and functional forms that match the response of macroeconomic variables to monetary policy shocks also work well for technology shocks; (iv) while technology shocks account for a large fraction of the lower frequency component of economic fluctuations, they account for only a small part of the business cycle component of fluctuations.
Preliminary and incomplete
关键词: Consumption, Technology, General equilibrium model, Shocks, and Fluctuations 学科: D58 - General equilibrium and disequilibrium - Computable and other applied general equilibrium models and E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles
Creator: Bryant, John B. and Supel, Thomas M. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 116 Abstract:
It is commonly asserted that with excess plant capacity, expansive policy stimulates output and lowers unemployment without substantially boosting inflation, while at full capacity most of the impact is on inflation. This assertion is critically examined. First, two common definitions of capacity--engineering and economic—are examined and found to be nebulous. The concepts of supply and demand are older, but better. Full capacity is reinterpreted as points where the supply curve is steep and excess capacity as points where it is fairly flat. Then the "Keynesian" model in which stimulative policy shifts only the demand curve is compared to the "classical" model where stimulative policy shifts both demand and supply curves. For the former model the assertion on capacity utilization is correct, while in the latter it is not. Empirical tests are performed to determine whether measured capacity utilization is useful for predicting inflation. The tests are ambiguous, but certainly do not strongly favor capacity utilization.
关键词: Aggregate demand, Aggregate economy, Engineering capacity, and Economic capacity 学科: E31 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Price level ; Inflation ; Deflation and E12 - General aggregative models - Keynes ; Keynesian ; Post-Keynesian
Creator: Bryant, John B. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 177 描述:
"Nominal labor contracts replicate net of tax real contracts contingent on aggregate risk in the model presented. Perhaps this is a model of money." (title page note)
关键词: Income tax, Wages, Inflation tax, and Labor economics 学科: C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models and J41 - Labor Contracts
Creator: Bergoeing, Raphael., Hernando, Andrés., and Repetto, Andrea. Series: Advances in dynamic economics Abstract:
We estimate the effects of policy distortions on aggregate productivity. Based on a model of plant production and productivity uncertainty and heterogeneity, and using Chilean manufacturing data, we focus on the effect of taxation on the exit behavior of plants. We find that taxes do distort the liquidation decisions of firms, suggesting that policy distortions reduce the extent to which factors are reallocated towards the most productive plants. Our results have important consequences for growth and development, as policies that alter the measure of plants that operate in equilibrium change the short-run response of output to exogenous shocks and the long run level of aggregate TFP. In particular, we find that the amount of productivity lost due to excessive plant shutdowns are very large.
关键词: South America, Exit behavior of firms, Chile, Latin America, Taxation policy, and Total factor productivity 学科: H25 - Taxation, subsidies and revenue - Business taxes and subsidies and E23 - Macroeconomics : Consumption, saving, production, employment, and investment - Production
Creator: Williamson, Stephen D. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 405 Abstract:
A model is constructed where banks provide access to a communication technology which facilitates trade. Bank liabilities may coexist with alternative means of payment in equilibrium, and there exist regions of the parameter space where banking dominates the payments system and where physical exchange media dominate. The model is consistent with some observations concerning the role of the banking system in economic development, and with characteristics of banking crises. In particular, in early stages of economic development: 1) rapid output growth is accompanied by an increasing share of banking in transactions activity and 2) there are recurrent banking "panics" where reductions in measured aggregate output coincide with increases in the use of alternative means of payment relative to bank liabilities. In later stages of development, growth slackens off, the share of banking in the payments system stabilizes and the economy is less likely to be subject to banking panics.
Prepared for a conference on "Models of Money and Intermediation," University of Western Ontario, October 1988. A preliminary version was presented at the NBER Summer Institute, July 1988.
关键词: Communication cost, Financial panic, Banks, Communication technology, and Banking panics 学科: O33 - Technological change ; Research and development - Technological change : Choices and consequences ; Diffusion processes and G21 - Financial institutions and services - Banks ; Other depository institutions ; Micro finance institutions ; Mortgages
Creator: Greenwood, Jeremy, 1953- and Williamson, Stephen D. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 363 Abstract:
A two country overlapping generations model is constructed, in which financial intermediation arises endogenously as an incentive compatible means of economizing on monitoring costs. Because of the existence of transaction costs, money markets in the two countries are segmented and investors have differential access to international credit markets. The model is used to generate predictions concerning the role of international intermediation in economic development, and to examine the nature of business cycle phenomena across alternative exchange rate regimes. Disturbances are propagated by a credit allocation mechanism, which also lends a novel flavor to the model's long run properties.
关键词: Generations, Exchange rate, Business cycles, Economic models, and Financial policy 学科: E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles and F41 - Macroeconomic aspects of international trade and finance - Open economy macroeconomics