Creator: Chari, V. V. and Cole, Harold Linh, 1957- Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 156 Abstract:
In this paper we present a formal model of vote trading within a legislature. The model captures the conventional wisdom that if projects with concentrated benefits are financed by universal taxation, then majority rule leads to excessive spending. This occurs because the proponent of a particular bill only needs to acquire the votes of half the legislature and hence internalizes the costs to only half the representatives. We show that Pareto superior allocations are difficult to sustain because of a free rider problem among the representatives. We show that alternative voting rules, such as unanimity, eliminate excessive spending on concentrated benefit projects but lead to underfunding of global public goods.
Creator: Williamson, Stephen D. Series: Lucas expectations anniversary conference Abstract:
A cash-in-advance model with sequential markets is constructed, where unanticipated monetary injections are nonneutral and can potentially produce large liquidity effects. However, if the monetary authority adheres to an optimal money rule, money should not respond to unanticipated shocks, so that a Friedman rule is suboptimal and the monetary authority does not exploit the liquidity effect. Quantitatively, the model can generate variability in money and nominal interest rates close to what is observed, and can produce data with no obvious evidence of the existence of liquidity effects.
关键词: Monetary policy, Interest, Liquidity, Money, and Interest rates 学科: E52 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Monetary policy and E50 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - General
Creator: Aiyagari, S. Rao and Peled, Dan Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 503 Abstract:
It is often argued that with a positively skewed income distribution (median less than mean) a majority voting over proportional tax rates would result in higher tax rates than those that maximize average welfare, and will accordingly reduce aggregate savings. We reexamine this view in a capital accumulation model, in which distorting redistributive taxes provide insurance against idiosyncratic shocks, and income distributions evolve endogenously. We find small differences of either sign between the tax rates set by a majority voting and a utilitarian government, for reasonable parametric specifications. We show how these differences reflect a greater responsiveness of a utilitarian government to the average need for the insurance provided by the tax-redistribution scheme. These conclusions remain true despite the fact that the model simulations produce positively skewed distributions of total income across agents.
关键词: Votes, Taxes, and Income distribution 学科: E62 - Fiscal Policy and D72 - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
Creator: Aiyagari, S. Rao and McGrattan, Ellen R. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 538 Abstract:
We describe a model for calculating the optimal quantity of debt and then apply it to the U.S. economy. The model consists of a large number of infinitely-lived households whose saving behavior is influenced by precautionary saving motives and borrowing constraints. This model incorporates a different role for government debt than the standard representative agent growth model and captures different trade-offs between the benefits and costs of varying its level. Government debt enhances the liquidity of households by providing additional assets for smoothing consumption (in addition to claims to capital) and effectively loosening borrowing constraints. By raising the interest rate, government debt makes assets less costly to hold and more effective in smoothing consumption. However, the implied taxes have wealth distribution, incentive, and insurance effects. Further, government debt crowds out capital (via higher interest rates) and lowers per capita consumption. Our quantitative analysis suggests that the crowding out effect is decisive for welfare. We also describe variations of the model which permit endogenous growth. It turns out that even with lump sum taxes and inelastic labor, government debt as well as government consumption have growth rate effects, thereby implying large welfare gains from reducing the level of debt.
关键词: Government debt, Borrowing constraints, and Precautionary saving 学科: E60 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General and H60 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General
Creator: Rogerson, Richard Donald, Rupert, Peter Charles, 1952-, and Wright, Randall D. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 186 Abstract:
Dynamic general equilibrium models that include explicit household production sectors provide a useful framework within which to analyze a variety of macroeconomic issues. However, some implications of these models depend critically on parameters, including the elasticity of substitution between market and home consumption goods, about which there is little information in the literature. Using the PSID, we estimate these parameters for single males, single females, and married couples. At least for single females and married couples, the results indicate a high enough substitution elasticity that including home production will make a significant difference in applied general equilibrium theory.
关键词: General Equilibrium, Production Model, Production Sector , and Equilibrium Model
Creator: Fernandez, Raquel, 1959- and Rogerson, Richard Donald Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 185 Abstract:
Standard models of public education provision predict an implicit transfer of resources from higher income individuals toward lower income individuals. Many studies have documented that public higher education involves a transfer in the reverse direction. We show that this pattern of redistribution is an equilibrium outcome in a model in which education is only partially publicly provided and individuals vote over the extent to which it is subsidized. We show that increased inequality in the income distribution makes this outcome more likely and that the efficiency implications of this exclusion depend on the wealth of the economy.
Creator: Rotemberg, Julio Series: Lucas expectations anniversary conference Abstract:
I show that a simple sticky price model based on Rotemberg (1982) is consistent with a variety of facts concerning the correlation of prices, hours and output. In particular, I show that it is consistent with a negative correlation between the detrended levels of output and prices when the Beveridge-Nelson method is used to detrend both the price and output data. Such a correlation, i.e.,a negative correlation between the predictable movements in output and the predictable movements in prices is present (and very strong) in U.S. data. Consistent with the model, this correlation is stronger than correlations between prices and hours of work. I also study the size of the predictable price movements that are associated with predictable output movements as well as the degree to which there are predictable movements in monetary aggregates associated with predictable movements in output. These facts are used to shed light on the degree to which the Federal Reserve has pursued a policy designed to stabilize expected inflation.
关键词: Output, Prices, Monetary policy, Inflation, and Federal Reserve 学科: E23 - Macroeconomics : Consumption, saving, production, employment, and investment - Production, E31 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Price level ; Inflation ; Deflation, E24 - Macroeconomics : Consumption, saving, production, employment, and investment - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational income distribution ; Aggregate human capital, and E50 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - General
Creator: Geweke, John Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 539 Abstract:
In the specification of linear regression models it is common to indicate a list of candidate variables from which a subset enters the model with nonzero coefficients. This paper interprets this specification as a mixed continuous-discrete prior distribution for coefficient values. It then utilizes a Gibbs sampler to construct posterior moments. It is shown how this method can incorporate sign constraints and provide posterior probabilities for all possible subsets of regressors. The methods are illustrated using some standard data sets.
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953-, Polo, Clemente, and Sancho, Ferran Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 480 Abstract:
In 1985–86 the authors were members of a team that constructed a static applied general equilibrium model that was used to analyze the impact on the Spanish economy of the 1986 fiscal reform, which accompanied Spain’s entry into the European Community. This paper compares the results obtained to recently published data for 1985–87; we find that the model performed well in predicting the changes in relative prices and resource allocation that actually occurred, particularly if we incorporate exogenous shocks that affected the Spanish economy in 1986. We also analyze the sensitivity of the results to alternative specifications of the labor market and macroeconomic closure rules; we find that the central results are robust.