Creator: Wallace, Neil and Zhou, Ruilin Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 569 Abstract:
Until the mid-19th century, shortages of currency were sometimes serious problems. One common response was to prohibit the export of coins. We use a random matching model with indivisible money to explain a shortage and to judge the desirability of a prohibition on the export of coins. The model, although extreme in many regards, represents better than earlier models a demand for outside money and the problems that arise when that money is indivisible. It can also rationalize a prohibition on the export of coins.
关键词: Indivisible money, Export of coins, and Currency shortage 学科: N10 - Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: General, International, or Comparative, E40 - Money and Interest Rates: General, and E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems
Creator: Christiano, Lawrence J. and Harrison, Sharon G. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 214 Abstract:
We study a one-sector growth model which is standard except for the presence of an externality in the production function. The set of competitive equilibria is large. It includes constant equilibria, sunspot equilibria, cyclical and chaotic equilibria, and equilibria with deterministic or stochastic regime switching. The efficient allocation is characterized by constant employment and a constant growth rate. We identify an income tax-subsidy schedule that supports the efficient allocation as the unique equilibrium outcome. That schedule has two properties: (i) it specifies the tax rate to be an increasing function of aggregate employment, and (ii) earnings are subsidized when aggregate employment is at its efficient level. The first feature eliminates inefficient, fluctuating equilibria, while the second induces agents to internalize the externality.
关键词: Business cycle, Regime switching, Stabilization, Fiscal policy, and Multiple equilibria 学科: E62 - Fiscal Policy, E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles, and E13 - General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical
Creator: Jagannathan, Ravi and Wang, Zhenyu Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 208 Abstract:
Most empirical studies of the static CAPM assume that betas remain constant over time and that the return on the value-weighted portfolio of all stocks is a proxy for the return on aggregate wealth. The general consensus is that the static CAPM is unable to explain satisfactorily the cross-section of average returns on stocks. We assume that the CAPM holds in a conditional sense, i.e., betas and the market risk premium vary over time. We include the return on human capital when measuring the return on aggregate wealth. Our specification performs well in explaining the cross-section of average returns.
学科: G10 - General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Creator: Cole, Harold Linh, 1957- and Ohanian, Lee E. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 566 Abstract:
Constant returns to scale is a central construct of neoclassical theory. Previous studies argued that one must adopt a specification of the production function with substantial unobserved service variation to reconcile constant returns with the data. Some economists have argued that this finding has not resolved the size of returns to scale, since factor service variation is unobserved, and there is no generally accepted theory to guide specification of this alternative framework. In this paper we show that the stochastic version of the neoclassical growth model delivers an orthogonality condition which can be used to estimate returns to scale. Rather than the standard finding of increasing returns, we show that standard theory and conventional measures of output and inputs yield estimates of constant returns to scale at the aggregate level. Our estimates also suggest that factor service variation is not an important determinant of output fluctuations.
Creator: Boyd, John H. and Smith, Bruce D. (Bruce David), 1954-2002 Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 537 Abstract:
We consider an environment in which risk-neutral firms must obtain external finance. They have access to two kinds of linear, stochastic investment opportunities. For one, return realizations are costlessly observed by all agents. For the other, return realizations are costlessly observed only by the investing firm; however, they can be (privately) observed by outsiders who bear a fixed verification cost. Thus, the second investment opportunity is subject to a standard costly state verification (CSV) problem of the type considered by Townsend (1979), Gale and Hellwig (1985), or Williamson (1986, 1987).
We examine the optimal allocations of investment between the two kinds of projects, as well as the optimal contract used to finance it. We show that the optimal contractual outcome can be supported by having firms issue appropriate (and determinate) quantities of debt and equity securities to outside investors.
The optimal debt-equity ratio necessarily depends (in part) on the firm’s asset structure. Investments in projects subject to CSV problems are associated (in a sense to be made precise) with the use of debt—as might be expected from the existing CSV literature. Investments in projects with publicly observable returns are associated with the use of external equity.
We examine in detail the relationship between the optimal asset and liability structure of the firm. We also describe conditions under which an increase in the cost of state verification shifts the composition of investment towards projects with observable returns, and reduces the optimal debt-equity ratio. Interestingly, the optimal debt-equity ratio is also shown to depend on factors that are irrelevant to asset allocations.
Finally, a large part of the interest in CSV environments has been due to the fact that they may result in equilibrium credit rationing. Our analysis has strong implications for the possibility of equilibrium credit rationing in more general CSV models.
学科: E51 - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers and G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
Creator: Cole, Harold Linh, 1957-, Mailath, George Joseph, and Postlewaite, A. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 213 Abstract:
We analyze a model in which there is socially inefficient competition among people. In this model, self-enforcing social norms can potentially control the inefficient competition. However, the inefficient behavior often cannot be suppressed in equilibrium among those with the lowest income due to the ineffectiveness of sanctions against those in the society with the least to lose. We demonstrate that in such cases, it may be possible for society to be divided into distinct classes, with inefficient behavior suppressed in the upper classes but not in the lower.
关键词: Social norms, Social competition, Efficiency, Class, and Growth 学科: B40 - Economic Methodology: General, D90 - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: General, D31 - Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions, C73 - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games; Repeated Games, and A10 - General Economics: General
Creator: Aiyagari, S. Rao, Braun, R. Anton, and Eckstein, Zvi Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 551 Abstract:
This paper is motivated by a variety of empirical observations on the comovements of currency velocity, inflation, and the relative size of the “credit services” sector. By the credit services sector we mean the part of banking and credit sector which provides alternative means of transactions to using currency as well as other services which help people economize on currency. We incorporate the credit services sector into a monetary growth model. Our model makes two specific and new contributions. The first is to show that direct quantitative evidence on the welfare cost of low inflation using measures of the relative size of an appropriately defined credit services sector for the U.S.—essentially the cost incurred by banks and credit unions in providing demand deposit and credit card services—is consistent with the welfare cost measured using an estimated money demand curve following the classic analysis of Bailey (1956) and the more recent analysis of Lucas (1993). Both of these measures amount to about 0.5 percent of GNP. The second contribution is in providing welfare cost of inflation estimates over a range of inflation rates which have some new features. We find that the total welfare cost of inflation remains bounded at about 5 percent of consumption.
学科: E51 - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers and E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Creator: Aiyagari, S. Rao and Braun, R. Anton Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 565 Abstract:
We consider the nature of optimal cyclical monetary policy in three different stochastic models with various shocks. The first is a pure liquidity effect model, the second is a cost of changing prices model, and the third is an optimal seinorage model. In each case we solve for the optimal monetary policy and describe how money growth and interest rates respond to shocks under the optimal policy. The shocks we consider are money demand shocks, productivity shocks, and government consumption shocks. All of the models have the feature that the Friedman rule of setting the nominal interest rate to zero is not optimal. Optimal policies are always time inconsistent even though lump sum taxation is allowed. At least in some instances we find that optimal policy dictates responses of money growth and interest rates which run counter to conventional wisdom.
Creator: Atkeson, Andrew and Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 212 Abstract:
In this paper we develop a model in which a country faces a balance of payments crisis if constraints on its international borrowing bind. We use the model to describe the dynamics of the trade balance, capital account, and balance of payments of a country that borrows to finance consumption following sweeping macroeconomic and structural reforms and then hits constraints on its international borrowing. We compare the predictions of this theoretical example with events in Mexico from 1987 through 1995.
关键词: Balance of payments, Speculative attacks, International borrowing, and Exchange rate crises 学科: F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems and F31 - Foreign Exchange