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Creator: Chari, V. V. and Hopenhayn, Hugo Andres Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 326 Abstract:
'Structural unemployment' is said to occur in regions or 'sectors' of the economy as a consequence of technological changes. In this paper we present a model which provides an environment which gives rise to unemployment which could be labelled structural unemployment. There is exogenous technological change and vintage specific human capital. Unemployment arises as workers specialized in a particular technology within a vintage decide to search for a job within their vintage, so that their previously acquired special skills are used, instead of getting employed as unskilled workers in the newest vintage. As the rate of technological change increases, the incentives to reassign specialized workers to their same vintage, inccuring therefore in search costs, becomes less attractive, and in consequence the fraction of specialized workers doing search activities decreases. This provides some rationale for the negative correlation between rates of growth and unemployment observed in the data.
Palavra-chave: Growth, Vintage human capital, Technology, Structural unemployment, Human capital, Labor market, Unemployment, and Skills Sujeito: E24 - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity and J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
Creator: Keane, Michael P. and Wolpin, Kenneth I. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 559 Abstract:
This paper provides structural estimates of a dynamic model of schooling, work, and occupational choice decisions based on 11 years of observations on a sample of young men from the 1979 youth cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys of Labor Market Experience (NLSY). The structural estimation framework that we adopt fully imposes the restrictions of the theory and permits an investigation of whether such a theoretically restricted model can succeed in quantitatively fitting the observed data patterns. We find that a suitably extended human capital investment model can in fact do an excellent job of fitting observed data on school attendance, work, occupational choices, and wages in the NLSY data on young men and also produces reasonable forecasts of future work decisions and wage patterns.
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 491 Abstract:
The current tool of choice for analyzing the impact of a potential North American Free Trade Agreement on the economies of Canada, Mexico, and the United States is the static applied general equilibrium model. Although this type of model can do a good job in analyzing, and even in predicting, the impact of trade liberalization or tax reform on relative prices and resource allocation over a short time horizon, it does not attempt to capture the impact of government policy on growth rates. For this we need a dynamic model. This paper outlines some of the issues that confront a researcher interested in building a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the potential economic impact of a NAFTA, including the impact on growth rates. Simple calculations based on preliminary empirical work indicate that the dynamic benefits of increased openness could dwarf the static benefits found by more conventional applied general equilibrium models.
Creator: Ligon, Ethan, Thomas, Jonathan P., and Worrall, Tim Series: Endogenous incompleteness Abstract:
This paper studies efficient insurance arrangements in village economies when there is complete information but limited commitment. Commitment is limited because only limited penalties can be imposed on households which renege on their promises. Any efficient insurance arrangement must therefore take into account the fact that households will renege if the benefits from doing so outweigh the costs. We study a general model which admits aggregate and idiosyncratic risk as well as serial correlation of incomes. It is shown that in the case of two households and no storage the efficient insurance arrangement is characterized by a simple updating rule. An example illustrates the similarity of the efficient arrangement to a simple debt contract with occasional debt forgiveness. The model is then extended to multiple households and a simple storage technology. We use data from the ICRISAT survey of three villages in southern India to test the theory against three alternative models: autarky, full insurance, and a static model of limited commitment due to Coate and Ravallion (1993). Overall, the model we develop does a significantly better job of explaining the data than does any of these alternatives.
Palavra-chave: Risk, Limited commitment, Agrarian economies, Insurance arrangements, Village economies, and India Sujeito: O12 - Economic development - Microeconomic analyses of economic development, D81 - Information, knowledge, and uncertainty - Criteria for decision-making under risk and uncertainty, and O15 - Economic development - Human resources ; Human development ; Income distribution ; Migration