This paper was published with no issue number.

This paper was published with no issue number.

Simultaneously published as part of the Ninth District Economic Information Series.

This paper was published with no issue number.

A speech delivered to the Marketing Research Seminar for Gas Utilities, sponsored by the American Gas Association, October 2, 1969.

The 1972 version of WP9 was published as part of the Ninth District Economic Series.

The 1972 version of WP9 was published as part of the Ninth District Economic Series.

Note from cover: "Developed from remarks at the Chamber of Commerce sponsored seminar for the International Tariff Commission hearings on February 20, 1975 Minneapolis, Minnesota."

A statistical definition of the natural unemployment rate hypothesis is advanced and tested. A particular illustrative structural macroeconomic model satisfying the definition is set forth and estimated. The model has "classical" policy implications, implying a number of neutrality propositions asserting the invariance of the conditional means of real variables with respect to the feedback rule for the money supply. The aim is to test how emphatically the data reject a model incorporating rather severe "classical" hypotheses.

This thesis consists of a series of essays on the theory of exchange under uncertainty. The first essay examines the welfare implications of futures markets in the context of complete markets for contingent claims. It is shown that in a C-good, S-state world the equilibrium allocations resulting from the operation of pre-state noncontingent futures markets and post-state spot markets may be Pareto optimal. This proposition turns on the fact that a futures contract can be interpreted as a security whose state-specific return is the post-state spot price. If the matrix of spot prices has rank S, then, with futures and spot markets, agents can achieve the same allocations over states as with complete markets for contingent claims.