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Creator: Aiyagari, S. Rao., Wallace, Neil., and Wright, Randall. Series: Lucas expectations anniversary conference Abstract:
A pairwise random meeting model with money is used to study the nominal yield on pure-discount, default-free securities that are issued by the government. There is one steady state with matured securities at par and, for some parameters, another with them at a discount. In the former, exogenous rejection of unmatured securities by the government is necessary and sufficient for such a steady state to display a positive nominal yield on unmatured securities. In the latter, the post-maturity discount on securities induces a deeper pre-maturity discount even if there is no exogenous rejection of unmatured securities.
Palavra-chave: Maturity, Government securities, and Interest rates Sujeito: E43 - Money and interest rates - Determination of interest rates ; Term structure of interest rates and E02 - Macroeconomics and monetary economics - General - Institutions and the macroeconomy
Creator: Green, Edward J. and Oh, Soo-Nam. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 499 Abstract:
In this paper we explain why markets in noncontingent debt securities might be a stable form of market organization for intermediation to households. Efficient-contract allocation might be supported by these markets because households' relationships with their intermediaries do not exactly parallel the explicit form of the noncontingent contracts that they explicitly sign with one another. Also we show that the efficient-contract model can be distinguished from alternative models within the time-series framework that has been widely used to study households' consumption patterns.
Paper prepared for the 'Debt and Credit' Conference at the LSE.
Palavra-chave: Credit contracts, Consumption, Credit, Debt securities, and Households Sujeito: C22 - Single equation models ; Single variables - Time-series models ; Dynamic quantile regressions, G21 - Financial institutions and services - Banks ; Other depository institutions ; Micro finance institutions ; Mortgages, and D11 - Household behavior and family economics - Consumer economics : Theory
Creator: McGrattan, Ellen R. and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Staff Reports (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) Number: 472 Palavra-chave: Taxation, Social Security, Retirement, and Medicare Sujeito: E13 - General aggregative models - Neoclassical, H55 - National government expenditures and related policies - Social security and public pensions, and I13 - Health Insurance, Public and Private
Creator: Boyd, John H. and Graham, Stanley L. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 398 Abstract:
This study estimates the effects of allowing bank holding companies (BHCs) to enter several lines of financial business not now permitted. A simulation technique is used to estimate the risk and return of hypothetical financial corporations after merger between a BHC and a large firm in each of these industries: securities, real estate, life insurance, property and casualty insurance, and insurance agencies. The study concludes that a merger between a BHC and a life insurance company may decrease the probability of bankruptcy for the merged firm relative to the BHC alone. This result does not hold true, however, for BHC mergers with firms in the other industries. In particular, BHC mergers with securities or real estate firms are found to increase the probability of bankruptcy.
Palavra-chave: Insurance, Bankruptcy, Risk, Bank holding companies, Bank holding company, Merger, Securities, and Real estate Sujeito: G32 - Corporate finance and governance - Financing policy ; Financial risk and risk management ; Capital and ownership structure, G21 - Financial institutions and services - Banks ; Other depository institutions ; Micro finance institutions ; Mortgages, and G28 - Financial institutions and services - Government policy and regulation
Creator: Townsend, Robert M., 1948- Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 77 Abstract:
This thesis consists of a series of essays on the theory of exchange under uncertainty. The first essay examines the welfare implications of futures markets in the context of complete markets for contingent claims. It is shown that in a C-good, S-state world the equilibrium allocations resulting from the operation of pre-state noncontingent futures markets and post-state spot markets may be Pareto optimal. This proposition turns on the fact that a futures contract can be interpreted as a security whose state-specific return is the post-state spot price. If the matrix of spot prices has rank S, then, with futures and spot markets, agents can achieve the same allocations over states as with complete markets for contingent claims.
Palavra-chave: Uncertainty and Markets Sujeito: D80 - Information, knowledge, and uncertainty - General, Y40 - Dissertations (unclassified), and G10 - General financial markets - General
Creator: Mendoza, Enrique G., 1963- and Smith, Katherine A. Series: Advances in dynamic economics Abstract:
"Sudden Stops " experienced during emerging markets crises are characterized by large reversals of capital inflows and the current account, deep recessions, and collapses in asset prices. This paper proposes an open-economy equilibrium asset pricing model in which financial frictions cause Sudden Stops. Margin requirements impose a collateral constraint on foreign borrowing by domestic agents and trading costs distort asset trading by foreign securities firms. At equilibrium, margin constraints may or may not bind depending on portfolio decisions and equilibrium asset prices. If margin constraints do not bind, productivity shocks cause a moderate fall in consumption and a widening current account deficit. If debt is high relative to asset holdings, the same productivity shocks trigger margin calls forcing domestic agents to fire-sell equity to foreign traders. This sets off a Fisherian asset-price deflation and subsequent rounds of margin calls. A current account reversal and a collapse in consumption occur when equity sales cannot prevent a sharp rise in net foreign assets.
Palavra-chave: Collateral constraints, Fisherian deflation, Emerging markets, Margin calls, Open economy asset pricing, Asset pricing, Sudden stops, Nonlinear dynamics, and Trading costs Sujeito: F32 - International finance - Current account adjustment ; Short-term capital movements, D52 - General equilibrium and disequilibrium - Incomplete markets, E44 - Money and interest rates - Financial markets and the macroeconomy, and F41 - Macroeconomic aspects of international trade and finance - Open economy macroeconomics
Creator: Da-Rocha, Jose-Maria., Giménez Fernández, Eduardo Luís., and Lores Insua, Francisco Xavier. Series: Advances in dynamic economics Abstract:
In this paper we will consider a simple small open economy with three assets - domestic capital, foreign securities and public debt - to study the government's incentives to devalue and to repay or default the debt. We show that the announcement of a devaluation is anticipated by domestic agents who reduce domestic investments and increase foreign holdings. Once a government devalues, the expectations vanish and the economy recovers its past levels of investment and GDP. However, in a country with international debt denominated in US dollars if a government devalues it requires a higher fraction of GDP to repay its external debt. In consequence, there exists a trade-off between recovering the economy and increasing the future cost of repaying the debt. Our main result is to show that, as devaluation beliefs exists, a devaluation increase government incentives to default and devalue. We calibrate our model to match the decrease in investment of domestic capital, the reduction in production, the increase in trade balance surplus, and the increase in debt levels observed throughout 2001 in Argentina. We show that for a probability of devaluation consistent with the risk premium of the Argentinian Government bonds nominated in dollars issued on April 2001 the external debt of Argentina was in a crisis zone were the government find optimal to default and to devalue.
Palavra-chave: South America, Default, Argentina, Latin America, Devaluation, and Debt crisis Sujeito: F30 - International finance - General, E60 - Macroeconomic policy, macroeconomic aspects of public finance, and general outlook - General, and F34 - International finance - International lending and debt problems