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Creator: Hopenhayn, Hugo Andres. and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 374 Abstract: The existence of fixed points for monotone maps on spaces of measures is established. The case of monotone Markov processes is analyzed and a uniqueness and global stability condition is developed. A comparative statics result is presented and the problem of approximation to the invariant distribution is discussed. The conditions of the theorems are verified for the cases of Optimal Stochastic Growth and Industry Equilibrium.
Palavrachave: Invariant Markov process, Monotone Markov process, and Stochastic optimization Sujeito: C61  Mathematical methods and programming  Optimization techniques ; Programming models ; Dynamic analysis 
Creator: Hopenhayn, Hugo Andres. and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 374 Abstract: The existence of fixed points for monotone maps on spaces of measures is established. The case of monotone Markov processes is analyzed and a uniqueness and global stability condition is developed. A comparative statics result is presented and the problem of approximation to the invariant distribution is discussed. The conditions of the theorems are verified for the cases of Optimal Stochastic Growth and Industry Equilibrium.
Palavrachave: Stochastic optimization, Monotone Markov process, and Invariant Markov process Sujeito: C61  Mathematical methods and programming  Optimization techniques ; Programming models ; Dynamic analysis 
Creator: Hopenhayn, Hugo Andres. and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 299 Abstract: The existence of fixed points for monotone maps on spaces of measures is established. The case of monotone Markov processes is analyzed and a uniqueness and global stability condition is developed. A comparative statics result is presented and the problem of approximation to the invariant distribution is discussed. The conditions of the theorems are verified for the cases of Optimal Stochastic Growth and Industry Equilibrium.
Palavrachave: Invariant Markov process, Monotone Markov process, and Stochastic optimization Sujeito: C61  Mathematical methods and programming  Optimization techniques ; Programming models ; Dynamic analysis 

Creator: Cole, Harold Linh, 1957, Dow, James, 1961 , and English, William B. (William Berkeley), 1960 Series: International perspectives on debt, growth, and business cycles Abstract: We consider a model of international sovereign debt where repayment is enforced because defaulting nations lose their reputation and consequently, are excluded from international capital markets. Underlying the analysis of reputation is the hypothesis that borrowing countries have different, unobservable, attitudes towards the future. Some regimes are relatively myopic, while others are willing to make sacrifices to preserve their access to debt markets. Nations' preferences, while unobservable, are not fixed but evolve over time according to a Markov process. We make two main points. First we argue that in models of sovereign debt the length of the punishment interval that follows a default should be based on economic factors rather than being chosen arbitrarily. In our model, the length of the most natural punishment interval depends primarily on the preference parameters. Second, we point out that there is a more direct way for governments to regain their reputation. By offering to partially repay loans in default, a government can signal its reliability. This type of signaling can cause punishment interval equilibria to break down. We examine the historical record on lending resumption to argue that in almost all cases, some kind of partial repayment was made.
Sujeito: H63  National budget, deficit, and debt  Debt ; Debt management and F34  International finance  International lending and debt problems 
Creator: Sargent, Thomas J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 60 Palavrachave: Demand for money, Hyperinflation, Phillip Cagan, and Rational expectations theory Sujeito: E41  Money and interest rates  Demand for money 
Creator: Levine, David K. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 386 Abstract: In a monetary model, it is shown that if there is a unique Pareto inefficient barter equilibrium, then a monetary equilibrium exists when traders are sufficiently patient.
Palavrachave: Consumers, Monetary equilbria, Money, Barter equilibria, and Inflation Sujeito: E42  Money and interest rates  Monetary systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the monetary system ; Payment systems and D51  General equilibrium and disequilibrium  Exchange and production economies 
Creator: Uhlig, Harald, 1961 Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 342 Abstract: [Please note that the following Greek lettering is improperly transcribed.] If [0,1] is a measure space of agents and X a collection of pairwise uncorrelated random variables with common finite mean U and variance a , one would like to establish a law of large numbers () Xdl = U. In this paper we propose to interpret () as a Pettis integral. Using the corresponding Riemanntype version of this integral, we establish (*) and interpret it as an L2law of large numbers. Intuitively, the main idea is to integrate before drawing an W, thus avoiding wellknow measurability problems. We discuss distributional properties of i.i.d. random shocks across the population. We given examples for the economic interpretability of our definition. Finally, we establish a vectorvalued version of the law of large numbers for economies.
Palavrachave: Random variable, Khinchines law of large numbers, L2 law of large numbers, Riemann integral, Pettis integral, and Large numbers Sujeito: C10  Econometric and statistical methods : General  General 

Creator: Doan, Thomas., Litterman, Robert B., and Sims, Christopher A. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 243 Abstract: This paper develops a forecasting procedure based on a Bayesian method for estimating vector autoregressions. The procedure is applied to ten macroeconomic variables and is shown to improve outofsample forecasts relative to univariate equations. Although crossvariables responses are damped by the prior, considerable interaction among the variables is shown to be captured by the estimates. We provide unconditional forecasts as of 1982:12 and 1963:3* We also describe how a model such as this can be used to make conditional projections and to analyse policy alternatives. As an example, we analyze a Congressional Budget Office forecast made in 1982:12. While no automatic causal interpretations arise from models like ours, they provide a detailed characterization of the dynamic statistical interdependence of a set of economic variables, which may help in evaluating causal hypotheses, without containing any such hypotheses themselves.
Palavrachave: Bayesian methods, Forecasting, and Macroeconomics Sujeito: C11  Econometric and statistical methods : General  Bayesian analysis and E27  Macroeconomics : Consumption, saving, production, employment, and investment  Forecasting and simulation