Risultati della ricerca
Creator: Aiyagari, S. Rao. and Peled, Dan. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 503 Abstract:
It is often argued that with a positively skewed income distribution (median less than mean) a majority voting over proportional tax rates would result in higher tax rates than those that maximize average welfare, and will accordingly reduce aggregate savings. We reexamine this view in a capital accumulation model, in which distorting redistributive taxes provide insurance against idiosyncratic shocks, and income distributions evolve endogenously. We find small differences of either sign between the tax rates set by a majority voting and a utilitarian government, for reasonable parametric specifications. We show how these differences reflect a greater responsiveness of a utilitarian government to the average need for the insurance provided by the tax-redistribution scheme. These conclusions remain true despite the fact that the model simulations produce positively skewed distributions of total income across agents.
Parola chiave: Taxes, Income distribution, and Votes Soggetto: E62 - Macroeconomic policy, macroeconomic aspects of public finance, and general outlook - Fiscal policy and D72 - Analysis of collective decision-making - Models of political processes : Rent-seeking, elections, legislatures, and voting behavior
Creator: Geweke, John. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 526 Parola chiave: Simulation, Monte Carlo, and Econometrics Soggetto: C15 - Econometric and statistical methods : General - Simulation methods and C63 - Mathematical methods and programming - Computational techniques ; Simulation modeling
Creator: Backus, David. and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 348 Abstract:
We derive the empirical implications of a popular class of international macroeconomic models. The real economy is a stochastic exchange model with complete markets. A standard result is that cross-country risk sharing implies perfect correlation between consumption paths across countries. With mild restrictions on the endowment process ii also implies a positive correlation between net exports and output in every country. We introduce money using cash-in-advance constraints and show that the implications for real variables carry over into the monetary economy. These dichotomy and neutrality propositions generalize those in the literature to stochastic environments with heterogeneous agents, and do not require the cash-in-advance constraint to bind in every state. They imply that any correlation between the nominal exchange rate and the balance of trade can be made consistent with the theory.
Parola chiave: Government finance, Exchange rates, Risk-sharing, Monetary policy, and Cash-in-advance Soggetto: E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles, F30 - International finance - General, and D46 - Market structure and pricing - Value theory
Creator: Christiano, Lawrence J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 415 Abstract:
his article studies the accuracy of two versions of Kydland and Prescott's (1980, 1982) procedure for approximating optimal decision rules in problems in which the objective fails to be quadratic and the constraints fail to be linear. The analysis is carried out using a version of the Brock-Mirman (1972) model of optimal economic growth. Although the model is not linear quadratic, its solution can nevertheless be computed with arbitrary accuracy using a variant of existing value-function iteration procedures. I find the Kydland-Prescott approximate decision rules are very similar to those implied by value-function iteration.
Replaced by IEM Discussion Paper #9 (January 1989).
Parola chiave: Optimization, Decision rule, Production function, Markov chain, State space, and Growth model Soggetto: C40 - Econometric and statistical methods : Special topics - General
Creator: Boyd, John H. and Smith, Bruce D., d. 2002. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 522 Abstract:
We consider a two country growth model with international capital markets. These markets fund capital investment in both countries, and operate subject to a costly state verification (CSV) problem. Investors in each country require some external finance, but also provide internal finance, which mitigates the CSV problem. When two identical (except for their initial capital stocks) economies are closed, they necessarily converge monotonically to the same steady state output level. Unrestricted international financial trade precludes otherwise identical economies from converging, and poor countries are necessarily net lenders to rich countries. Oscillation in real activity and international capital flows can occur.
Parola chiave: CSV, International lending, Capital investment, Credit rationing, International capital markets, Credit, Costly state verification, Closed economy, and Open economy Soggetto: O16 - Economic development - Financial markets ; Saving and capital investment ; Corporate finance and governance and F34 - International finance - International lending and debt problems
Creator: Braun, R. Anton. and Christiano, Lawrence J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 529 Abstract:
The money demand literature presents much conflicting evidence on this question. For example, Lucas (1988) reports unrestricted money demand regressions which seem to imply that long-run money demand elasticities are highly unstable across subsamples. At the same time, he also presents evidence from money demand regressions with the income elasticity restricted to unity which seem to suggest stability. We conduct a formal analysis which weighs these apparently conflicting facts to determine which hypothesis is more plausible; the hypothesis that money demand is stable, or the hypothesis that money demand is unstable. We find that the stability hypothesis is the more plausible one. Thus, according to our data set, the answer to the question in the title is "yes".
Parola chiave: M1, Money demand, Regression analysis, Money demand regressions, and Money supply Soggetto: E41 - Money and interest rates - Demand for money and E51 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Money supply ; Credit ; Money multipliers
Creator: Anderson, Paul A. and Supel, Thomas M. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 39 Abstract:
This paper puts forward a method for improving the forecasting accuracy of an existing macroeconometric model without changing its policy response characteristics. The procedure is an extension and formalization of the practice of additive adjustments currently used by most forecasters. The method should be of special interest to forecasters who use models built by other investigators because it does not involve reestimation of the original model and uses only information routinely included in the documentation available to model users. The paper ends with a demonstration of the prediction improvement realized by application of this method to a version of the MIT-Penn-SSRC (MPS) model.
Parola chiave: Multiperiod forecasting, MIT-Penn-SSRC model, Prediction, and MIT-Penn-MPS model Soggetto: C52 - Econometric modeling - Model evaluation and selection and C53 - Econometric modeling - Forecasting and other model applications
Creator: Miller, Preston J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 220 Descrizione:
WP 220 was presented at The Economic Consequences of Government Deficits : an Economic Policy Conference, cosponsored by the Center for the Study of American Business and the Institute of Banking and Financial Markets at Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri, October 29-30, 1982.
Parola chiave: Tax policy, Federal debt, Deficit, Inflation, and Budget policy Soggetto: H63 - National budget, deficit, and debt - Debt ; Debt management, E42 - Money and interest rates - Monetary systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the monetary system ; Payment systems, E52 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Monetary policy, and H62 - National budget, deficit, and debt - Deficit ; Surplus