Risultati della ricerca
Creator: Afonso, Gara and Lagos, Ricardo Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 708 Abstract:
We use minute-by-minute daily transaction-level payments data to document the cross-sectional and time-series behavior of the estimated prices and quantities negotiated by commercial banks in the fed funds market. We study the frequency and volume of trade, the size distribution of loans, the distribution of bilateral fed funds rates, and the intraday dynamics of the reserve balances held by commercial banks. We find evidence of the importance of the liquidity provision achieved by commercial banks that act as de facto intermediaries of fed funds.
Parola chiave: Federal funds market, Monetary policy, and Federal funds rates Soggetto: G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages, E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems, and E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953-, Rossbach, Jack, and Ruhl, Kim J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 492 Abstract:
This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (3-digit ISIC) based on the pre-liberalization distribution of exports by product (5-digit SITC). Using the results of Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) that much of the growth in trade after trade liberalization is in products that are traded very little or not at all, we predict that industries with a higher share of exports generated by least traded products will experience more growth. Using our methodology, we develop predictions for industry-level changes in trade for the United States and Korea following the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). As a test for our methodology, we show that it performs significantly better than the applied general equilibrium models originally used for the policy evaluation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
Parola chiave: Trade liberalization, Product , and Industry Soggetto: F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade, F13 - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations, and F17 - Trade: Forecasting and Simulation
Creator: Eaton, Jonathan, Kortum, Samuel, and Kramarz, Francis Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 332 Abstract:
We examine entry across 113 national markets in 16 different industries using a comprehensive data set of French manufacturing firms. The data are unique in indicating how much each firm exports to each destination. Looking across all manufacturers: (1) Firms differ substantially in export participation, with most selling only at home; (2) The number of firms selling to multiple markets falls off with the number of destinations with an elasticity of –2.5; (3) Decomposing French exports to each destination into the size of the market and French share, variation in market share translates nearly completely into firm entry while about 60 percent of the variation in market size is reflected in firm entry. Looking within each of 16 industries we find little variation in these patterns. We propose that any successful model of trade and market structure must confront these facts.
Parola chiave: Exports, ndustrial market , Industrial machinery, Market share, Metals industries, Industrial chemistry, International trade, Furniture industry, Heavy industry, and Tobacco industry Soggetto: L11 - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms, F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade, and L60 - Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953-, Pujolas, Pau S., and Rossbach, Jack Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 537 Abstract:
Applied general equilibrium (AGE) models, which feature multiple countries, multiple industries, and input-output linkages across industries, have been the dominant tool for evaluating the impact of trade reforms since the 1980s. We review how these models are used to perform policy analysis and document their shortcomings in predicting the industry-level effects of past trade reforms. We argue that, to improve their performance, AGE models need to incorporate product-level data on bilateral trade relations by industry and better model how trade reforms lower bilateral trade costs. We use the least traded products methodology of Kehoe et al. (2015) to provide guidance on how improvements can be made. We provide further suggestions on how AGE models can incorporate recent advances in quantitative trade theory to improve their predictive ability and better quantify the gains from trade liberalization.
Parola chiave: Trade liberalization, Trade costs, Applied general equilibrium, Armington elasticities, and Input-output linkages Soggetto: F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade, F11 - Neoclassical Models of Trade, F13 - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations, and F17 - Trade: Forecasting and Simulation
Creator: Atkeson, Andrew and Burstein, Ariel Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 404 Abstract:
International relative prices across industrialized countries show large and systematic deviations from relative purchasing power parity. We embed a model of imperfect competition and variable markups in a quantitative model of international trade. We find that when our model is parameterized to match salient features of the data on international trade and market structure in the US, it can reproduce deviations from relative purchasing power parity similar to those observed in the data because firms choose to price-to-market. We then examine how pricing-to-market depends on the presence of international trade costs and various features of market structure.
Parola chiave: Terms of trade, Real exchange rate, Purchasing power parity, Exchange-rate pass-through, and Pricing-to-market Soggetto: F31 - Foreign Exchange, F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade, and F12 - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
Creator: Lagakos, David P. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 428 Abstract:
I document that cross-country productivity differences in retail trade, which employs around 20% of workers, are accounted for in large part by compositional differences. In richer countries, most retailing is done in modern stores, with high measured output per worker, whereas in developing countries, retail trade is dominated by less-productive traditional stores. I hypothesize that developing countries rationally adopt few modern stores since car ownership rates are low. A simple quantitative model of home production supports the role of cars in determining the composition of retail technologies used and retail-sector productivity differences across countries.
Parola chiave: Productivity differences, Technology adoption, and Retail trade Soggetto: O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, L81 - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce, O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes, and O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
Creator: Betts, Caroline M. and Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 415 Abstract:
We study the quarterly bilateral real exchange rate and the relative price of non-traded to traded goods for 1225 country pairs over 1980–2005. We show that the two variables are positively correlated, but that movements in the relative price measure are smaller than those in the real exchange rate. The relation between the two variables is stronger when there is an intense trade relationship between two countries and when the variance of the real exchange rate between them is small. The relation does not change for rich/poor country bilateral pairs or for high inflation/low inflation country pairs. We identify an anomaly: The relation between the real exchange rate and relative price of non-traded goods for US/EU bilateral trade partners is unusually weak.
Parola chiave: Relative Prices, Trade Relationships, Real Exchange Rates, and Non-Traded Goods Soggetto: F30 - International Finance: General, F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade, F10 - Trade: General, and F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
Creator: Fitzgerald, Doireann and Haller, Stefanie Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 549 Abstract:
We use micro data for Ireland to estimate how export participation and the export revenue of incumbent exporters respond to tariffs and real exchange rates. Both participation and revenue, but especially revenue, are more responsive to tariffs than to real exchange rates. Our estimates translate into an elasticity of aggregate exports with respect to tariffs of between -3.8 and -5.4, and with respect to real exchange rates of between 0.45 and 0.6, consistent with estimates in the literature based on aggregate data. We argue that forward-looking investment in customer base combined with the fact that tariffs are much more predictable than real exchange rates can explain why export revenue responds so much more to tariffs.
Parola chiave: Tariffs, Real exchange rates, and International elasticity puzzle Soggetto: F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade and F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
Creator: Holmes, Thomas J. and Singer, Ethan Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 739 Abstract:
This paper develops and estimates a model of indivisibilities in shipping and economies of scale in consolidation. It uses highly detailed data on imports where it is possible to observe the contents of individual containers. In the model, ﬁrms are able to adapt to indivisibility constraints by using consolidation strategies and by making adjustments to shipment size. The ﬁrm determines the optimal number of domestic ports to use, taking into account that adding more ports lowers inland freight cost, at the expense of a higher indivisibility cost. The estimated model is able to roughly account for Walmart’s port choice behavior. The model estimates are used to evaluate how mergers or dissolutions of ﬁrms or countries, and changes in variety, affect indivisibility costs and inland freight costs.
Parola chiave: Scale economies, Walmart, Technological change, and Indivisibilities Soggetto: L10 - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance: General, R40 - Transportation Economics: General, and F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade