Risultati della ricerca
Creator: Litterman, Robert B. and Weiss, Laurence M. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 179 Parola chiave: Money supply, Inflation, Short term rates, and Ex ante rates Soggetto: E51 - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers and E40 - Money and Interest Rates: General
Creator: Chari, V. V., Christiano, Lawrence J., and Eichenbaum, Martin S. Series: Finance, fluctuations, and development Abstract:
Different monetary aggregates covary very differently with short term nominal interest rates. Broad monetary aggregates like Ml and the monetary base covary positively with current and future values of short term interest rates. In contrast, the nonborrowed reserves of banks covary negatively with current and future interest rates. Observations like this 'sign switch' lie at the core of recent debates about the effects of monetary policy actions on short term interest rates. This paper develops a general equilibrium monetary business cycle model which is consistent with these facts. Our basic explanation of the 'sign switch' is that movements in nonborrowed reserves are dominated by exogenous shocks to monetary policy, while movements in the base and Ml are dominated by endogenous responses to non-policy shocks.
Parola chiave: Monetary policy, Interest, Money, Shocks, Inside money, and Interest rates Soggetto: E43 - Money and interest rates - Determination of interest rates ; Term structure of interest rates and E51 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Money supply ; Credit ; Money multipliers
Creator: Alvarez, Fernando, 1964-, Atkeson, Andrew, and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 627 Abstract:
Time-varying risk is the primary force driving nominal interest rate differentials on currency-denominated bonds. This finding is an immediate implication of the fact that exchange rates are roughly random walks. We show that a general equilibrium monetary model with an endogenous source of risk variation—a variable degree of asset market segmentation—can produce key features of actual interest rates and exchange rates. The endogenous segmentation arises from a fixed cost for agents to exchange money for assets. As inflation varies, the benefit of asset market participation varies, and that changes the fraction of agents participating. These effects lead the risk premium to vary systematically with the level of inflation. Our model produces variation in the risk premium even though the fundamental shocks have constant conditional variances.
Parola chiave: Forward premium anomaly, Pricing kernel, Asset pricing-puzzle, Time-varying conditional variances, Segmented markets, and Fama puzzle Soggetto: E43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects, F30 - International Finance: General, G15 - International Financial Markets, G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates, F31 - Foreign Exchange, and F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
Creator: Alvarez, Fernando, 1964-, Atkeson, Andrew, and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 278 Abstract:
This paper analyzes the effects of money injections on interest rates and exchange rates in a model in which agents must pay a Baumol-Tobin style fixed cost to exchange bonds and money. Asset markets are endogenously segmented because this fixed cost leads agents to trade bonds and money only infrequently. When the government injects money through an open market operation, only those agents that are currently trading absorb these injections. Through their impact on these agents’ consumption, these money injections affect real interest rates and real exchange rates. We show that the model generates the observed negative relation between expected inflation and real interest rates. With moderate amounts of segmentation, the model also generates other observed features of the data: persistent liquidity effects in interest rates and volatile and persistent exchange rates. A standard model with no fixed costs can produce none of these features.
Parola chiave: Volatile real exchange rates, Baumol-Tobin model, Liquidity effects, Term structure of interest rates, and Fixed costs Soggetto: E52 - Monetary Policy, F31 - Foreign Exchange, E43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects, E40 - Money and Interest Rates: General, and F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
Creator: Adão, Bernardino, Correia, Isabel, and Teles, Pedro Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 680 Abstract:
We show that short and long nominal interest rates are independent monetary policy instruments. The pegging of both helps solving the problem of multiplicity that arises when only short rates are used as the instrument of policy. A peg of the nominal returns on assets of different maturities is equivalent to a peg of state-contingent interest rates. These are the rates that should be targeted in order to implement unique equilibria. At the zero bound, while it is still possible to target state-contingent interest rates, that is no longer equivalent to the target of the term structure.
Parola chiave: Sticky prices, Maturities, Long rates, Monetary policy instruments, Term structure, Short rates, Monetary policy, and Multiplicity of equilibria Soggetto: E50 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General, E40 - Money and Interest Rates: General, and E30 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Creator: Aiyagari, S. Rao, Wallace, Neil, and Wright, Randall D. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 550 Abstract:
A random matching model with money is used to study the nominal yield on small denomination, bearer, safe, discount securities issued by the government. There is always one steady state with matured securities circulating at par and, for some parameters, another with them circulating at a discount. In the former, a necessary and sufficient condition for a positive nominal yield on not-yet-matured securities is exogenous discriminatory treatment of them by the government. In the latter, the post-maturity discount on securities induces a deeper pre-maturity discount even without such discriminatory treatment.
Parola chiave: Money, Monetary policy, and Interest rates Soggetto: E43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects, E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems, E41 - Demand for Money, and E40 - Money and Interest Rates: General
Creator: Diba, Behzad and Oh, Seonghwan Series: Business analysis committee meeting Abstract:
This paper reports some empirical evidence on the relation between the expected real interest rate and monetary aggregates in postwar U.S. data. We find some evidence against the hypothesis, implied by the Real Business Cycle model of Litterman and Weiss (1985), that the expected real interest rate follows a univariate autoregressive process, not Granger-caused by monetary aggregates. Our findings, however, are consistent with a more general bivariate model--suggested by what Barro (1987, Chapter 5) refers to as "the basic market-clearing model"--in which the real rate depends on its own lagged values and on lagged output. Taking this bivariate model as our null hypothesis, we find no evidence that money-stock changes have a significant liquidity effect on the expected real interest rate.
Soggetto: E51 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Money supply ; Credit ; Money multipliers, E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles, and E43 - Money and interest rates - Determination of interest rates ; Term structure of interest rates
Creator: Bullard, James and Russell, Steven Series: Finance, fluctuations, and development Abstract:
We examine the conditions under which steady states with low real interest rates—real rates substantially below the output growth rate—exist in an overlapping generations model with production, capital accumulation, a labor-leisure trade-off, technological progress, and agents who live for many periods. The number of periods in an agent's life (n) is left open for much of the analysis and determines the temporal interpretation of a time period. The qualitative properties of the model are largely invariant to different values of n. We find that two low real interest rate steady states exist for empirically plausible values of the parameters of the model. Outside liabilities such as fiat currency or unbacked government debt are valued in one of these steady states.
Parola chiave: Interest rates, Debts, Public, and General equilibrium models Soggetto: E40 - Money and interest rates - General and D51 - General equilibrium and disequilibrium - Exchange and production economies
Creator: Kocherlakota, Narayana Rao, 1963- Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 218 Abstract:
This paper examines the sets of feasible allocations in a large class of economic environments in which commitment is impossible (the standard definition of feasibility is adapted to take account of the lack of commitment). The environments feature either memory or money. Memory is defined as knowledge on the part of an agent of the full histories of all agents with whom he has had direct or indirect contact in the past. Money is defined as an object that does not enter preferences or production and is available in fixed supply. The main proposition proves that any allocation that is feasible in an environment with money is also feasible in the same environment with memory. Depending on the environment, the converse may or may not be true. Hence, from a technological point of view, money is equivalent to a primitive form of memory.
Soggetto: D82 - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design, C73 - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games; Repeated Games, and E40 - Money and Interest Rates: General
Creator: Prescott, Edward C. and Wessel, Ryan Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 562 Abstract:
Businesses hold large quantities of cash reserves, which have average returns well below their investments in tangible capital. Businesses do this because these monetary assets provide services. One implication is that money services is a factor of production in capital theoretic valuation equilibrium models. Our aggregate production function is consistent with both the classical demand for money function relationship and with extended periods of near zero short-term nominal interest rates. In our model economy, there is a 100 percent reserve requirement on all demand deposits. Demand deposits are legal tender. We find (i) money services in the production function necessitates revisions in the national accounts; (ii) monetary and fiscal policy cannot be completely separated; (iii) for a given policy, equilibrium is either unique or does not exist; and (iv) Friedman’s monetary satiation is not optimal. We make quantitative comparisons between interest rate targeting regimes and between inflation rate targeting regimes. The best inflation rate target was 2 percent.
Parola chiave: Money in production function, Zero lower bound, Friedman monetary satiation, Inflation rate targeting, Interest rate targeting, and 100 percent reserve banking Soggetto: E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics: General, E50 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General, E60 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General, and E40 - Money and Interest Rates: General