Risultati della ricerca
Creator: Galor, Oded, 1953- and Weil, David N. Series: Productivity and the industrial revolution Abstract:
This paper develops a unified model of growth, population, and technological progress that is consistent with long-term historical evidence. The economy endogenously evolves through three phases. In the Malthusian regime, population growth is positively related to the level of income per capita. Technological progress is slow and is matched by proportional increases in population, so that output per capita is stable around a constant level. In the post-Malthusian regime, the growth rates of technology and total output increase. Population growth absorbs much of the growth of output, but income per capita does rise slowly. The economy endogenously undergoes a demographic transition in which the traditionally positive relationship between income per capita and population growth is reversed. In the Modern Growth regime, population growth is moderate or even negative, and income per capita rises rapidly. Two forces drive the transitions between regimes: First, technological progress is driven both by increases in the size of the population and by increases in the average level of education. Second, technological progress creates a state of disequilibrium, which raises the return to human capital and induces parents to substitute child quality for quantity.
Parola chiave: Technological change, Malthusian, Growth, Development, Demographics, Demographic transition, Fertility, and Population Soggetto: O11 - Economic development - Macroeconomic analyses of economic development, J13 - Demographic economics - Fertility ; Family planning ; Child care ; Children ; Youth, O40 - Economic growth and aggregate productivity - General, and O33 - Technological change ; Research and development - Technological change : Choices and consequences ; Diffusion processes
Creator: Atkeson, Andrew and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 513 Abstract:
In this paper, we build a model of the transition following large-scale economic reforms that predicts both a substantial drop in output and a prolonged pause in physical investment as the initial phase of the optimal transition following the reform. We model reform as a change in policy which induces agents to close existing enterprises using old technologies of production and to open up new enterprises adopting new technologies of production. The central idea of our paper is that it is costly to close old enterprises and open new enterprises because, in doing so, information capital built up about old enterprises is lost and time must pass before information capital about new enterprises can be acquired. Thus, an acceleration of the pace of industry evolution leads in the short run to a net loss of information capital, a drop in productivity, a recession, and a fall in physical investment. We calibrate our model of industry evolution, information capital, and transition to match micro data on industry evolution in the United States and macro data from the United States, Japan, and the former communist countries of Europe. We find that the loss of information capital that accompanies a major acceleration in the pace of industry evolution in an economy leads initially to a decade of recession and a five year pause in physical investment before the benefits of reform are realized.
Parola chiave: Technology change, Information capital, Recession, Technological evolution, Industrial evolution, Economic reform, Policy change, and Transition Soggetto: O25 - Industrial Policy and O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
Creator: Laitner, John. Series: Productivity and the industrial revolution Abstract:
This paper presents a model in which a country's average propensity to save tends to rise endogenously over time. The paper uses a two-sector neoclassical framework to model the transition from agriculture to manufacturing which typically accompanies economic development. Key assumptions are that only the agricultural sector uses land and a simple version of Engel's law. When a country's income per capita is low, agricultural consumption is important; consequently, land is valuable and capital gains on it may account for most wealth accumulation, making the NIPA APS appear low. If exogenous technological progress raises incomes over time, Engel's law shifts demand to manufactured goods. Then land's importance in portfolios relative to reproducible capital diminishes and the measured average propensity to save can rise.
Parola chiave: Manufacturing, Growth, and Economic growth Soggetto: O14 - Economic development - Industrialization ; Manufacturing and service industries ; Choice of technology and O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Creator: Grossman, Gene M. and Helpman, Elhanan. Series: International perspectives on debt, growth, and business cycles Abstract:
We construct a model of the product cycle featuring endogenous innovation and endogenous technology transfer. Competitive entrepreneurs in the North expend resources to bring out new products whenever expected present discounted value of future oligopoly profits exceeds current product development costs. Each Northern oligopolist continuously faces the risk that its product will be copied by a Southern imitator, at which time its profit stream will come to an end. In the South, competitive entrepreneurs may devote resources to learning the production processes that have been developed in the North. There too, costs (of reverse engineering) must be covered by a stream of operating profits. We study the determinants of the long-run rate of growth of the world economy, and the long-run rate of technological diffusion. We also provide an analysis of the effects of exogenous events and of public policy on relative wage rates in the two regions.
Parola chiave: North-South trade, Product cycles, Imitation, Long-run growth, Technological change, and Innovation Soggetto: O33 - Technological change ; Research and development - Technological change : Choices and consequences ; Diffusion processes, F11 - Trade - Neoclassical models of trade, and F41 - Macroeconomic aspects of international trade and finance - Open economy macroeconomics
Creator: Hansen, Gary D. (Gary Duane) and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 507 Descrizione:
Presented at the ASSA meetings in Anaheim, CA.
Parola chiave: Technology shock, Recession, 1990, Labor, Technological shocks, Productivity, Knowledge, and 1991 Soggetto: G14 - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading and O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
Creator: Parente, Stephen L. and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Economic growth and development Abstract:
Technology change is modeled as the result of decisions of individuals and groups of individuals to adopt more advanced technologies. The structure is calibrated to the U.S. and postwar Japan growth experiences. Using this calibrated structure we explore how large the disparity in the effective tax rates on the returns to adopting technologies must be to account for the huge observed disparity in per capita income across countries. We find that this disparity is not implausibly large.
Soggetto: O33 - Technological change ; Research and development - Technological change : Choices and consequences ; Diffusion processes and O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Creator: Williamson, Stephen D. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 405 Abstract:
A model is constructed where banks provide access to a communication technology which facilitates trade. Bank liabilities may coexist with alternative means of payment in equilibrium, and there exist regions of the parameter space where banking dominates the payments system and where physical exchange media dominate. The model is consistent with some observations concerning the role of the banking system in economic development, and with characteristics of banking crises. In particular, in early stages of economic development: 1) rapid output growth is accompanied by an increasing share of banking in transactions activity and 2) there are recurrent banking "panics" where reductions in measured aggregate output coincide with increases in the use of alternative means of payment relative to bank liabilities. In later stages of development, growth slackens off, the share of banking in the payments system stabilizes and the economy is less likely to be subject to banking panics.
Parola chiave: Banking panics, Communication technology, Financial panic, Banks, and Communication cost Soggetto: G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages and O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
Creator: Segerstrom, Paul Stephen, 1957- Series: Economic growth and development Abstract:
This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model of economic growth. The model has a steady state equilibrium in which some firms devote resources to discovering qualitatively improved products and other firms devote resources to copying these products. Rates of both innovation and imitation are endogenously determined based on the outcomes of R&D races between firms. Innovation subsidies are shown to unambiguously promote economic growth. Welfare is only enhanced however if the steady state intensity of innovative effort exceeds a critical level.
Soggetto: O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models and O31 - Technological change ; Research and development - Innovation and invention : Processes and incentives
Creator: Huggett, Mark. and Ospina, Sandra. Series: Productivity and the industrial revolution Abstract:
A number of theoretical models of technology adoption have been proposed that emphasize technological switching, loss of expertise and subsequent technology-specific learning. These models imply that measured productivity may initially fall and then later rise after the adoption of a new technology. This paper investigates whether or not this implication is a feature of plant-level data from the Colombian manufacturing sector. We regress measures of productivity growth at the plant level on a plant-specific measure of technology adoption and its lagged values. We find that...
Parola chiave: Manufacturing, Embodied, Colombia, South America, Productivity, Technology, and Latin America Soggetto: D24 - Production and organizations - Production ; Cost ; Capital and total factor productivity ; Capacity, O14 - Economic development - Industrialization ; Manufacturing and service industries ; Choice of technology, L60 - Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General, and O33 - Technological change ; Research and development - Technological change : Choices and consequences ; Diffusion processes
Creator: Backus, David and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 318 Abstract:
These notes are intended as a do-it-yourself course in economic growth along lines suggested by Lucas ("On the Mechanics of Economic Development"). We examine in turn the neoclassical growth model; theories of endogenous growth, including learning-by-doing, increasing returns to scale, and externalities; and dynamic comparative advantage in trade. Salient features of growing economies and microeconomic evidence on production processes are used to evaluate alternatives. Exercises supplement the text.
Parola chiave: Returns to scale, Neoclassical growth, Learning-by-doing, Dynamic comparative advantage, and Technical change Soggetto: F11 - Neoclassical Models of Trade, O42 - Monetary Growth Models, and O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
Creator: Beaudry, Paul. and Portier, Franck. Series: Great depressions of the twentieth century Abstract:
In this paper we make the following three claims. (1), in contradiction with the conventional view according to which the French depression was very different to that observed in the US, we argue that there are more similarities than differences between the French and U.S. experiences and therefore a common explanation should be sought. (2), poor growth in technological opportunities appear neither necessary nor sufficient to account for the French depression. (3), changes in institutional and market regulation appear necessary to account for the overall changes observed over the period. Moreover, we show that the size of these institutional changes may by themselves be enough to quantatively explain the French depression. However, at this time, we have no theory to explain the size or the timing of these changes.
Parola chiave: France, Market regulation, Stagnation, and Depression Soggetto: N14 - Macroeconomics and monetary economics ; Growth and fluctuations - Europe : 1913- and E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles
Creator: Chari, V. V. and Hopenhayn, Hugo Andres Series: Models of economic growth and development Abstract:
We present a model of vintage human capital. The economy exhibits exogenous deterministic technological change. Technology requires skills that are specific to the vintage. A stationary competitive equilibrium is defined and shown to exist and be unique, as well as Pareto optimal. The stationary equilibrium is characterized by an endogenous distribution of skilled workers across vintages. The distribution is shown to be single peaked, and under general conditions there is a lag between the time when a technology appears and the peak of its usage, what is known as diffusion. An increase in the rate of exogenous technological charge shirts the distribution of human capital to more recent vintages and increases the relative wage of the unskilled workers in each vintage.
Soggetto: O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity, and O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
Creator: Chari, V. V. and Hopenhayn, Hugo Andres Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 375 Abstract:
This paper develops a model of vintage human capital in which each technology requires vintage specific skills. We examine the properties of a stationary equilibrium for our economy. The stationary equilibrium is characterized by an endogenous distribution of skilled workers across vintages. The distribution is shown to be single peaked and, under general conditions, there is a lag between the time when a technology appears and the peak of it's usage, a phenomenon known as diffusion. An increase in the rate of exogenous technological change shifts the distribution of human capital to more recent vintages thereby increasing the diffusion rate.
Parola chiave: Skills, Innovation, Technology, and Workers Soggetto: O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity, and O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
Creator: Jovanovic, Boyan, 1951- and Rob, Rafael. Series: Models of economic growth and development Abstract:
This paper presents a model of growth through technical progress. The nature and scope of what is learned is derived from a set of axioms, and optimal search behavior by agents is then analyzed. Agents can search intensively or extensively. Intensive search explores a technology in greater depth, while extensive search yields new technologies. Agents alternate between these two modes of search. The economy grows forever and the growth rate is bounded away from zero. The growth rate is on average higher during periods of intensive search than during periods of extensive search. Epochs of higher growth are initiated by discoveries that call for further intensive exploration. This mechanism is reminiscent of the process described by Schumpeter as causing long-wave business cycles. Serial correlation properties of output and growth stem from the presence of intensive rather than extensive search. The two key parameters are technological opportunity and the cost of the extensive search.
Soggetto: O30 - Technological change ; Research and development - General and O47 - Economic growth and aggregate productivity - Measurement of economic growth ; Aggregate productivity ; Cross-country output convergence
Creator: Kocherlakota, Narayana Rao, 1963- Series: Lucas expectations anniversary conference Abstract:
There were three important changes in the United States economy during the 1980s. First, from 1982-90, the decade featured the longest consecutive stretch of positive quarterly output growth in United States history. Second, wage inequality expanded greatly as the wages of highly skilled workers grew markedly faster than the wages of less skilled workers (Katz and Murphy (1992)). Finally, consumption inequality also expanded as the consumption of highly skilled workers grew faster than that of less skilled workers (Attanasio and Davis (1994)). This paper argues that these three aspects of the United States economic experience can be interpreted as being part of an efficient response to a macroeconomic shock given the existence of a particular technological impediment to full insurance. I examine the properties of efficient allocations of risk in an economic environment in which the outside enforcement of risksharing arrangements is infinitely costly. In these allocations, relative productivity movements have effects on both the current and future distribution of consumption across individuals. If preferences over consumption and leisure are nonhomothetic, these changes in the allocation of consumption will generate persistent cycles in aggregate output that do not occur in efficient allocations when enforcement is costless.
Parola chiave: Business cycle, Skilled workers, Risk, and Consumption Soggetto: E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles and E21 - Macroeconomics : Consumption, saving, production, employment, and investment - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth
Creator: Rivera-Batiz, Luis. and Romer, Paul Michael, 1955- Series: Modeling North American economic integration Abstract:
In a world with two similar, developed economies, economic integration can cause a permanent increase in the worldwide rate of growth. Starting from a position of isolations, closer integration can be achieved by increasing trade in goods or by increasing flows of ideas. We consider two models with different specifications of the research and development sector that is the source of growth. Either form of integration can increase the long-run rate of growth if it encourages the worldwide exploitation of increasing returns to scale in the research and development sector.
Soggetto: F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies, O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, and F15 - Economic Integration