Risultati della ricerca
Creator: Hansen, Gary D. (Gary Duane) and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 507 Descrizione:
Presented at the ASSA meetings in Anaheim, CA.
Parola chiave: Technological shocks, Technology shock, Knowledge, 1991, Labor, Productivity, 1990, and Recession Soggetto: O33 - Technological change ; Research and development - Technological change : Choices and consequences ; Diffusion processes and G14 - General financial markets - Information and market efficiency ; Event studies
Creator: Boyd, John H. and Gertler, Mark. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 531 Abstract:
This paper reexamines the conventional wisdom that commercial banking is an industry in severe decline. We find that a careful reading of the evidence does not justify this conclusion. It is true that on-balance sheet assets held by commercial banks have declined as a share of total intermediary assets. But this measure overstates any drop in banking, for three reasons. First, it ignores the rapid growth in commercial banks' off-balance sheet activities. Second, it fails to take account of the substantial growth in off-shore C&I lending by foreign banks. Third, it ignores the fact that over the last several decades financial intermediation has grown rapidly relative to the rest of the economy. We find that after adjusting the measure of bank assets to account for these considerations there is no clear evidence of secular decline. To corroborate these findings, we also construct an alternative measure of the importance of banking, using data from the National Income Accounts. Again, we find no clear evidence of a sustained declined. At most the industry may have suffered a slight loss of market share over the last decade. But as we discuss, this loss may reflect a transitory response to a series of adverse shocks and the phasing in of new regulatory requirements, rather than the beginning of a permanent decline.
Parola chiave: Banking, Bank assets, Commercial banks, Lending, and Intermediation Soggetto: G21 - Financial institutions and services - Banks ; Other depository institutions ; Micro finance institutions ; Mortgages
Creator: Cooley, Thomas F., Hansen, Gary D. (Gary Duane), and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 535 Parola chiave: Business cycle and Equilibrium Soggetto: E13 - General aggregative models - Neoclassical and E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles
Creator: Boot, Arnoud W. A. (Willem Alexander), 1960-, Greenbaum, Stuart I., and Thakor, Anjan V. Series: Economic growth and development Abstract:
The paper proposes a theory of ambiguous financial contracts. Leaving contractual contingencies unspecified may be optimal, even when stipulating them is costless. We show that an ambiguous contract has two advantages. First, it permits the guarantor to sacrifice reputational capital in order to preserve financial capital as well as information reusability in states where such tradeoff is optimal. Second, it fosters the development of reputation. This theory is then used to explain ambiguity in mutual fund contracts, bank loan commitments, bank holding company relationships, the investment banker's "highly confident" letter, non-recourse debt contracts in project financing, and other financial contracts.
Soggetto: G20 - Financial Institutions and Services: General and K12 - Contract Law
Creator: Chari, V. V., Christiano, Lawrence J., and Eichenbaum, Martin S. Series: Finance, fluctuations, and development Abstract:
Different monetary aggregates covary very differently with short term nominal interest rates. Broad monetary aggregates like Ml and the monetary base covary positively with current and future values of short term interest rates. In contrast, the nonborrowed reserves of banks covary negatively with current and future interest rates. Observations like this 'sign switch' lie at the core of recent debates about the effects of monetary policy actions on short term interest rates. This paper develops a general equilibrium monetary business cycle model which is consistent with these facts. Our basic explanation of the 'sign switch' is that movements in nonborrowed reserves are dominated by exogenous shocks to monetary policy, while movements in the base and Ml are dominated by endogenous responses to non-policy shocks.
Parola chiave: Monetary policy, Interest, Money, Shocks, Inside money, and Interest rates Soggetto: E43 - Money and interest rates - Determination of interest rates ; Term structure of interest rates and E51 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Money supply ; Credit ; Money multipliers
Creator: Ostroy, Joseph M. and Potter, Simon M. Series: Finance, fluctuations, and development Abstract:
We formulate a representative consumer model of intertemporal resource reallocation in which fluctuations in equity prices contribute to the smoothing of consumption flows. Features of the model include (a) an incompletely observable stochastic process of productivity shocks leading to fluctuating confidence of beliefs and (b) technologies involving commitments of a resource good. These features are exploited to show that (1) equities are not a representative form of total wealth and (2) the valuation of currently active firms is not representative of the valuation of all firms. We examine the implications of (1) and (2) to argue that empirical findings for the volatility and 'value shortfall' of equity prices may be consistent with a frictionless representative consumer model having a low degree of risk-aversion. Simulation of a calibrated version of the model for a risk-neutral consumer shows that when the 'data' is analyzed according to current econometric procedures, it is found to exhibit volatility of the same order of magnitude as that found in the actual data, although the model contains no excess volatility.
Parola chiave: Technological commitments, Equity premium, Uncertainty of beliefs, Excess volatility, and Value shortfall Soggetto: G12 - General financial markets - Asset pricing ; Trading volume ; Bond interest rates, E44 - Money and interest rates - Financial markets and the macroeconomy, G14 - General financial markets - Information and market efficiency ; Event studies, and E13 - General aggregative models - Neoclassical
Creator: Weinberg, John A. Series: Foundations of policy toward electronic money Abstract:
As a network, a payment system is likely to exhibit network externalities and perhaps some public good characteristics. Such properties may be more pronounced in an electronic payment system, because of its greater reliance on communication infrastructures with high fixed and low variable costs, for instance. This paper presents the basic economics of network externalities and reviews some basic principles regarding public goods. It then asks what these phenomena imply about the role of the Federal Reserve in emerging payment systems. The general conclusion is that there is reason to be skeptical that network externalities and public goods will be significant sources of market failure in electronic payment systems. These phenomena, by themselves, give rise to no particular, essential central bank role in these markets.
Parola chiave: Network industries, Public goods, Electronic payment systems, Network externalities, Network services, Communication systems, Central banks, Payment systems, and Network markets Soggetto: E58 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Central banks and their policies and E42 - Money and interest rates - Monetary systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the monetary system ; Payment systems