Risultati della ricerca
Creator: Kaplan, Greg and Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 697 Abstract:
We analyze the secular decline in interstate migration in the United States between 1991 and 2011. Gross flows of people across states are about 10 times larger than net flows, yet have declined by around 50 percent over the past 20 years. We argue that the fall in migration is due to a decline in the geographic specificity of returns to occupations, together with an increase in workers’ ability to learn about other locations before moving there, through information technology and inexpensive travel. These explanations find support in micro data on the distribution of earnings and occupations across space and on rates of repeat migration. Other explanations, including compositional changes, regional changes, and the rise in real incomes, do not fit the data. We develop a model to formalize the geographic-specificity and information mechanisms and show that a calibrated version is consistent with cross-sectional and time-series patterns of migration, occupations, and incomes. Our mechanisms can explain at least one-third and possibly all of the decline in gross migration since 1991.
Parola chiave: Gross flows, Labor mobility, Information technology, Learning, and Interstate migration Soggetto: R12 - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity, J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity, J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts, J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers, R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics, and D83 - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
Creator: Redish, Angela, 1952- and Weber, Warren E. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 658 Abstract:
Commodity money standards in medieval and early modern Europe were characterized by recurring complaints of small change shortages and by numerous debasements of the coinage. To confront these facts, we build a random matching monetary model with two indivisible coins with different intrinsic values. The model shows that small change shortages can exist in the sense that changes in the size of the small coin affect ex ante welfare. Further, the optimal ratio of coin sizes is shown to depend upon the trading opportunities in a country and a country’s wealth. Thus, coinage debasements can be interpreted as optimal responses to changes in fundamentals. Further, the model shows that replacing full-bodied small coins with tokens is not necessarily welfare-improving.
Parola chiave: Random matching, Commodity money, Optimal denominations, and Gresham's Law
Creator: Ales, Laurence, Carapella, Francesca, Maziero, Pricila, and Weber, Warren E. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 641 Abstract:
Prior to 1863, state-chartered banks in the United States issued notes–dollar-denominated promises to pay specie to the bearer on demand. Although these notes circulated at par locally, they usually were quoted at a discount outside the local area. These discounts varied by both the location of the bank and the location where the discount was being quoted. Further, these discounts were asymmetric across locations, meaning that the discounts quoted in location A on the notes of banks in location B generally differed from the discounts quoted in location B on the notes of banks in location A. Also, discounts generally increased when banks suspended payments on their notes. In this paper we construct a random matching model to qualitatively match these facts about banknote discounts. To attempt to account for locational differences, the model has agents that come from two distinct locations. Each location also has bankers that can issue notes. Banknotes are accepted in exchange because banks are required to produce when a banknote is presented for redemption and their past actions are public information. Overall, the model delivers predictions consistent with the behavior of discounts.
Parola chiave: Banknotes, Random matching, and Banks Soggetto: G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages, N21 - Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913, and E50 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General
Creator: Weber, Warren E. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 629 Abstract:
This paper examines the pricing of statebank notes prior to 1860 using data on the discounts on these notes as quoted in New York, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. The study is organized around determining whether these banknotes were priced consistent with their expected net redemption value. It finds a bank’s notes had higher prices when it was redeeming it notes for specie than when is was suspended. However, although prices generally varied inversely with redemption costs, the relationship was not tight and persistent arbitrage opportunities existed.
Soggetto: N21 - Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
Creator: Fogli, Alessandra and Veldkamp, Laura Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 572 Abstract:
Does the pattern of social connections between individuals matter for macroeconomic outcomes? If so, where do these differences come from and how large are their effects? Using network analysis tools, we explore how different social network structures affect technology diffusion and thereby a country's rate of growth. The correlation between high-diffusion networks and income is strongly positive. But when we use a model to isolate the effect of a change in social networks, the effect can be positive, negative, or zero. The reason is that networks diffuse ideas and disease. Low-diffusion networks have evolved in countries where disease is prevalent because limited connectivity protects residents from epidemics. But a low-diffusion network in a low-disease environment needlessly compromises the diffusion of good ideas. In general, social networks have evolved to fit their economic and epidemiological environment. Trying to change networks in one country to mimic those in a higher-income country may well be counterproductive.
Parola chiave: Technology diffusion, Pathogens, Economic networks, Social networks, Development, Growth, and Disease Soggetto: I10 - Health: General, E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy, O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes, and O10 - Economic Development: General
Creator: Green, Edward J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 501 Abstract:
I consider two theories of the determination of political institutions. One of these theories stresses effects of changes in the balance of military power between the ruler and subjects on the distribution of property rights which the political system enforces. The other theory emphasizes the effect of changing informational constraints which require institutional changes to be made in order to maintain efficiency. I examine how each of these theories would apply to explaining the development of parliamentary government in thirteenth-century England. My general conclusion is that both theories are required to understand fully the process by which liberal political institutions emerge.
Parola chiave: History, Government, England, and Great Britain Soggetto: N43 - Economic History: Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation: Europe: Pre-1913 and H11 - Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government