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The files below demonstrate how to calibrate the neoclassical growth model and then solve the model numerically, using data from Finland as an example. You can download all files at once by clicking "create the zip" or you can download individual files by clicking on the title or selecting "download" from the action column.
BaseCaseCalibration.xls calibrates model parameters and derives a sequence of TFP values in the ‘calibration’ worksheet. The parameters are also saved in paramBase.txt, and the series of TFP values along with labor endowment and taxes are saved in dataBase.txt. The MATLAB program depressions.m uses these text files and solveModel.m to solve the model numerically. The output this program saves to output.xls can be used to generate the graphs in BaseCaseCalibration.xls.
These files can be used to model any economy over any period by replacing the data in BaseCaseCalibration.xls and saving the results in the correct format to paramBase.txt and dataBase.txt. The files below contain an overview of the calibration procedures, the MATLAB programs, and instructions on using the files on your own data. More details can be found in the files themselves.
Please note: this collection is the new home of the greatdepressionsbook.com website. Scroll down to see the accompanying data for each chapter of the book. The computer programs needed to calibrate the neoclassical growth model and then solve the model numerically, using data from Finland as an example, are included in the list of works but can also be found here.
The worldwide Great Depression of the 1930s was a watershed for both economic thought and economic policymaking. It led to the belief that market economies are inherently unstable and to the revolutionary work of John Maynard Keynes. Its impact on popular economic wisdom is still apparent today.
This book, which uses a common framework to study sixteen depressions, from the interwar period in Europe and America as well as from more recent times in Japan and Latin America, challenges the Keynesian theory of depressions. It develops and uses a methodology for studying depressions that relies on growth accounting and the general equilibrium growth model.
Each chapter of the book is accompanied by a data file that contains all of the data used in the analysis. This collection also provides links to computer programs for applying the methodology.
Creator: Doan, Thomas, Litterman, Robert B., and Sims, Christopher A. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 243 Abstract:
This paper develops a forecasting procedure based on a Bayesian method for estimating vector autoregressions. The procedure is applied to ten macroeconomic variables and is shown to improve out-of-sample forecasts relative to univariate equations. Although cross-variables responses are damped by the prior, considerable interaction among the variables is shown to be captured by the estimates. We provide unconditional forecasts as of 1982:12 and 1963:3* We also describe how a model such as this can be used to make conditional projections and to analyse policy alternatives. As an example, we analyze a Congressional Budget Office forecast made in 1982:12. While no automatic causal interpretations arise from models like ours, they provide a detailed characterization of the dynamic statistical interdependence of a set of economic variables, which may help in evaluating causal hypotheses, without containing any such hypotheses themselves.
Mot-clé: Forecasting, Macroeconomics, and Bayesian methods Assujettir: E27 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications and C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General
Creator: Williamson, Stephen D. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 382 Abstract:
A model with private information is constructed that supports conventional arguments for a government monopoly in supplying circulating media of exchange. The model also yields predictions, including rate-of-return dominance of circulating media of exchange, that are consistent with observations from free banking regimes and fiat money regimes. In a laissez faire banking equilibrium, fiat money is not valued, and the resulting allocation is not Pareto optimal. However, if private agents are restricted from issuing circulating notes, there exists an equilibrium with valued fiat money that Pareto dominates the laissez faire equilibrium and is constrained Pareto optimal.
Mot-clé: Currency, Fiat money, Assymetric information, Monetary economics, Monetary exchange, Private information, Laissez faire banking, Free banking, and Money Assujettir: D82 - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design and E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems
Creator: Levine, David K. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 386 Abstract:
In a monetary model, it is shown that if there is a unique Pareto inefficient barter equilibrium, then a monetary equilibrium exists when traders are sufficiently patient.
Mot-clé: Money, Monetary equilbria, Inflation, Barter equilibria, and Consumers Assujettir: E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems and D51 - Exchange and Production Economies
Creator: Levine, David K. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 388 Abstract:
Previous authors have argued that the optimal monetary policy is contractionary. If buyers value consumption substantially more than sellers, there is some randomness and informational constraints make asset trading useful, we show that there is an incentive compatible expansionary policy that dominates all incentive compatible contractionary policies.
Mot-clé: Optimal monetary policy, Contraction, Trade, Private information, Asset trading, and Expansion Assujettir: D82 - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design and E52 - Monetary Policy
Creator: Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 392 Mot-clé: Discounted repeated game, Repeated game, Game theory, and Aps example Assujettir: C73 - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games; Repeated Games
Creator: Boyd, John H. and Graham, Stanley L. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 398 Abstract:
This study estimates the effects of allowing bank holding companies (BHCs) to enter several lines of financial business not now permitted. A simulation technique is used to estimate the risk and return of hypothetical financial corporations after merger between a BHC and a large firm in each of these industries: securities, real estate, life insurance, property and casualty insurance, and insurance agencies. The study concludes that a merger between a BHC and a life insurance company may decrease the probability of bankruptcy for the merged firm relative to the BHC alone. This result does not hold true, however, for BHC mergers with firms in the other industries. In particular, BHC mergers with securities or real estate firms are found to increase the probability of bankruptcy.
Mot-clé: Merger, Bank holding companies, Insurance, Real estate, Bankruptcy, Securities, Risk, and Bank holding company Assujettir: G28 - Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation, G32 - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill, and G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages