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Creator: Boyd, John H. and Gertler, Mark Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 531 Abstract:
This paper reexamines the conventional wisdom that commercial banking is an industry in severe decline. We find that a careful reading of the evidence does not justify this conclusion. It is true that on-balance sheet assets held by commercial banks have declined as a share of total intermediary assets. But this measure overstates any drop in banking, for three reasons. First, it ignores the rapid growth in commercial banks' off-balance sheet activities. Second, it fails to take account of the substantial growth in off-shore C&I lending by foreign banks. Third, it ignores the fact that over the last several decades financial intermediation has grown rapidly relative to the rest of the economy. We find that after adjusting the measure of bank assets to account for these considerations there is no clear evidence of secular decline. To corroborate these findings, we also construct an alternative measure of the importance of banking, using data from the National Income Accounts. Again, we find no clear evidence of a sustained declined. At most the industry may have suffered a slight loss of market share over the last decade. But as we discuss, this loss may reflect a transitory response to a series of adverse shocks and the phasing in of new regulatory requirements, rather than the beginning of a permanent decline.
Mot-clé: Lending, Bank assets, Banking, Intermediation, and Commercial banks Assujettir: G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
Creator: Braun, R. Anton Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 506 Abstract:
This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of cyclical fluctuations in marginal tax rates. It finds that systematically including tax variables in a standard real business cycle model substantially improves the model's ability to reproduce basic facts about postwar U.S. business cycle fluctuations. In particular, modeling fluctuations in personal and corporate income tax rates increases the model's predicted relative variability of hours and decreases its predicted correlation between hours and average productivity. Fluctuations in tax rates produce large substitution effects that alter the leisure/labor supply decision.
Mot-clé: Corporate tax , Taxes, Business cycle, Tax, Income tax, Tax rates, Real business cycle model, Productivity, and Taxation Assujettir: E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles, H25 - Business Taxes and Subsidies including sales and value-added (VAT), and H24 - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies; includes inheritance and gift taxes
Creator: Green, Edward J. and Oh, Soo-Nam Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 499 Abstract:
In this paper we explain why markets in noncontingent debt securities might be a stable form of market organization for intermediation to households. Efficient-contract allocation might be supported by these markets because households' relationships with their intermediaries do not exactly parallel the explicit form of the noncontingent contracts that they explicitly sign with one another. Also we show that the efficient-contract model can be distinguished from alternative models within the time-series framework that has been widely used to study households' consumption patterns.
Paper prepared for the 'Debt and Credit' Conference at the LSE.
Mot-clé: Households, Credit contracts, Consumption, Credit, and Debt securities Assujettir: G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages, C22 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes, and D11 - Consumer Economics: Theory
Creator: Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam Series: Staff Reports (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) Number: 462 Abstract:
This appendix contains seven sections. Section A reports results from running regressions of labor earnings on GDP using data from the PSID, for comparison with the results using HRS data in the body of the paper. Section B examines the relationship between family income, aggregate shocks, and risk preferences in the PSID. Section C gives technical details on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation employed in table 1 of the paper and reports the complete parameter estimates for the regressions summarized in that table. Section D reports results when the relationship between earnings and aggregate shocks is estimated with individual-specific coecients rather than common coecients for each risk-tolerance group. Section E reports results comparable to table 1 of the paper and table D.1 of this appendix using only Social Security covered earnings instead of the combination of Social Security and W-2 earnings. Section F reports robustness checks for tables 2 and 3 of the paper under alternative definitions of the household and the consumption and income variables. Section G reports robustness checks for tables 2 and 3 under an alternative definition of the leisure variable.
Mot-clé: Risk preferences, Heterogeneity, Imperfect insurance, and Risk sharing Assujettir: E21 - Macroeconomics : Consumption, saving, production, employment, and investment - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth and E24 - Macroeconomics : Consumption, saving, production, employment, and investment - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational income distribution ; Aggregate human capital
Creator: Greenwood, Jeremy, 1953- and Jovanovic, Boyan, 1951- Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 446 Abstract:
A paradigm is presented where both the extent of financial intermediation and the rate of economic growth are endogenously determined. Financial intermediation promotes growth because it allows a higher rate of return to be earned on capital, and growth in turn provides the means to implement costly financial structures. Thus, financial intermediation and economic growth are inextricably linked in accord with the Goldsmith-McKinnon-Shaw view on economic development. The model also generates a development cycle reminiscent of the Kuznets hypothesis. In particular, in the transition from a primitive slow-growing economy to a developed fast-growing one, a nation passes through a stage where the distribution of wealth across the rich and poor widens.
Mot-clé: Kuznets curve, Rate of return, Income gap, Income distribution, Growth rate, and Financial intermediation Assujettir: G00 - Financial Economics: General and O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
Creator: Atkeson, Andrew Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 381 Abstract:
This paper examines the optimal debt contract between lenders and a sovereign borrower when the borrower is free to repudiate the debt and when his decision to invest or consume borrowed funds is unobservable. We show that recurrent debt crises are a necessary part of the incentive structure which supports the optimal pattern of lending.
Mot-clé: Risk, Optimal debt contract, International capital, Foreign lending, Credit market, International loans, International debt, Debt crisis, and Moral hazard Assujettir: F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems