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Creator: Crone, Theodore M. and Mills, Leonard O. (Leonard Orion), 1960- Series: System committee on agriculture and rural development Abstract:
Cointegration tests are used to examine the basic long-term relation between population and the housing stock. There is some weak evidence of a long-run relation between the constant-cost value of the housing stock and population-driven demand. Much stronger evidence exists for a long-term relation between owner-occupied housing units and the adult population. We generally cannot reject that the number of housing units intended for owner-occupancy has adjusted in proportion to the population 25 years of age and older. Using these results and current population projections, we produce trend forecasts through the year 2010 for the owner-occupied housing stock and single-family housing starts in the U.S.
Mot-clé: Population, Demographics, and Housing Assujettir: J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts ; General Migration and R31: Housing Supply and Markets
Creator: Rich, Robert W., 1958- and Tracy, Joseph S., 1956- Series: Joint committee on business and financial analysis Abstract:
This paper examines data on point and probabilistic forecasts of inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We use this data to evaluate current strategies for the empirical modeling of forecast behavior. In particular, the analysis principally focuses on the relationship between ex post forecast errors and ex ante measures of uncertainty in order to assess the reliability of using proxies based on predictive accuracy to describe changes in predictive confidence. After we adjust the data to account for certain features in the conduct and construct of the survey, we find a significant and robust correlation between observed heteroskedasticity in the consensus forecast errors and forecast uncertainty. We also document that significant compositional effects are present in the data that are economically important in the case of forecast uncertainty, and may be related to differences in respondents' access to information.
Mot-clé: Forecasting, Inflation, Uncertainty, Disagreement, and Conditional heteroskedasticity Assujettir: C12 - Econometric and statistical methods : General - Hypothesis testing, C22 - Single equation models ; Single variables - Time-series models ; Dynamic quantile regressions, and E37 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Forecasting and simulation
Creator: Nevin, Edward. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 9 La description:
The 1972 version of WP9 was published as part of the Ninth District Economic Series.
Mot-clé: Policy making, Banking, and Regionalism Assujettir: G21 - Financial institutions and services - Banks ; Other depository institutions ; Micro finance institutions ; Mortgages and R58 - Regional government analysis - Regional development policy
Creator: Smith, Bruce D., d. 2002. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 234 Abstract:
Current approaches to monetary theory and policy owe much to the "quantity theory of money." However, recent theoretical developments suggest that the manner in which money is introduced is more important, even for price level movements, than the quantity of money. Colonial American experience provides a laboratory for discriminating between these views. It is shown here that the nature of backing, rather than the quantity of money, determined its value. Large secular inflations were ended by changing the nature of backing despite the continuance of large note issues (and despite the absence of a metallic standard). Extremely large note issues and note withdrawals are shown not to have produced inflation (currency depreciation) or deflation (currency appreciation).
Mot-clé: Quantity theory, Colonial America, Fiat money, and Currency Assujettir: E42 - Money and interest rates - Monetary systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the monetary system ; Payment systems, E52 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Monetary policy, and N11 - Macroeconomics and monetary economics ; Growth and fluctuations - United States ; Canada : Pre-1913
Creator: Backus, David. and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 359 Abstract:
We show that some classes of sterilized interventions have no effect on equilibrium prices or quantities. The proof does not depend on complete markets, infinitely-lived agents, Ricardian equivalence, monetary neutrality, or the law of one price. Moreover, regressions of exchange rates or interest differentials on variables measuring the currency composition of the debt may contain no information, in our theoretical economy, about the effectiveness of such interventions. Another class of interventions requires simultaneous changes in monetary and fiscal policy; their effects depend, generally, on the influence of tax distortions, government spending, and money supplies on economic behavior. We suggest that in applying the portfolio balance approach to the study of intervention, lack 01 explicit modeling of these features is a serious flaw.
Mot-clé: Debts, external and Foreign exchange law and legislation Assujettir: F41 - Macroeconomic aspects of international trade and finance - Open economy macroeconomics, F31 - International finance - Foreign exchange, and H30 - Fiscal policies and behavior of economic agents - General
Creator: Todd, Richard M. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 355 Abstract:
Forecasts are routinely revised, and these revisions are often the subject of informal analysis and discussion. This paper argues 1) that forecast revisions are analyzed because they help forecasters and forecast users to evaluate forecasts and forecasting procedures, and 2) that these analyses can be sharpened by using the forecasting model to systematically express its forecast revision as the sum of components identified with specific data revisions and forecast errors. An algorithm for this purpose is explained and illustrated.
Mot-clé: Forecasting, Forecast revisions, Innovation, and Data revisions Assujettir: E17 - General aggregative models - Forecasting and simulation
Creator: Roberds, William. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 298 Abstract:
The consequences of a straightforward monetary targeting scheme are examined for a simple dynamic macro model. The notion of "targeting" used below is the strategic one introduced by Rogoff (1985). Numerical simulations are used to demonstrate that for the model under consideration, monetary targeting is likely to lead to a deterioration of policy performance. These examples cast doubt upon the general efficacy of simple targeting schemes in dynamic rational expectations models.
Mot-clé: Monetary policy, Macroeconomic model, Monetary targeting, and Rational expectations Assujettir: C61 - Mathematical methods and programming - Optimization techniques ; Programming models ; Dynamic analysis and E52 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Monetary policy
Creator: Kydland, Finn E. and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 267 Abstract:
The neoclassical growth model studied in Kydland and Prescott  is modified to permit the capital utilization rate to vary. The effect of this modification is to increase the amplitude of the aggregate fluctuations predicted by theory as the equilibrium response to technological shocks. If following Solow , the changes in output not accounted for by changes in the labor and tangible capital inputs are interpreted as being the technology shocks, the statistical properties of the fluctuations in the post-war United States economy are close in magintude and nature to those predicted by theory.
Mot-clé: Production, Business cycle, Labor, and Work week Assujettir: E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles and D50 - General equilibrium and disequilibrium - General