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Creator: Azariadis, Costas. and Smith, Bruce D. (Bruce David), 1954-2002 Series: Finance, fluctuations, and development Abstract:
We study a variant of the one-sector neoclassical growth model of Diamond in which capital investment must be credit financed, and an adverse selection problem appears in loan markets. The result is that the unfettered operation of credit markets leads to a one-dimensional indeterminacy of equilibrium. Many equilibria display economic fluctuations which do not vanish asymptotically; such equilibria are characterized by transitions between a Walrasian regime in which the adverse selection problem does not matter, and a regime of credit rationing in which it does. Moreover, for some configurations of parameters, all equilibria display such transitions for two reasons. One, the banking system imposes ceilings on credit when the economy expands and floors when it contracts because the quality of public information about the applicant pool of potential borrowers is negatively correlated with the demand for credit. Two, depositors believe that returns on bank deposits will be low (or high): these beliefs lead them to transfer savings out of (into) the banking system and into less (more) productive uses. The associated disintermediation (or its opposite) causes banks to contract (expand) credit. The result is a set of equilibrium interest rates on loans that validate depositors' original beliefs. We investigate the existence of perfect foresight equilibria displaying periodic (possibly asymmetric) cycles that consist of m periods of expansion followed by n periods of contraction, and propose an algorithm that detects all such cycles.
Palabra clave: Interest rates, Equilibrium, Credit markets, and Business cycles Tema: E51 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Money supply ; Credit ; Money multipliers, E44 - Money and interest rates - Financial markets and the macroeconomy, O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, and E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles
Creator: Miller, Preston J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 220 Descripción:
Working paper 220 was presented at The Economic Consequences of Government Deficits: an Economic Policy Conference, cosponsored by the Center for the Study of American Business and the Institute of Banking and Financial Markets at Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri, October 29-30, 1982.
Palabra clave: Tax policy, Federal debt, Deficit, Inflation, and Budget policy Tema: H62 - National Deficit; Surplus, E52 - Monetary Policy, H63 - National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt, and E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems
Creator: Aiyagari, S. Rao and Wallace, Neil Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 226 Abstract:
This note presents a model whose competitive equilibrium can be consistent with the observation that current labor market conditions affect the well-being of new entrants more than they do that of senior workers. The model uses the notion that new entrants are not around soon enough to participate in risk-sharing contingent on the shocks that determine the equilibrium marginal products of first-period employment. This timing notion is formalized using a stochastic overlapping generations model.
A version of this paper was presented at the Econometric Society Summer Meeting, Cornell University, June 16-19, 1982.
Tema: J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure and E30 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Creator: Aiyagari, S. Rao, Wallace, Neil, and Wright, Randall Series: Lucas expectations anniversary conference Abstract:
A pairwise random meeting model with money is used to study the nominal yield on pure-discount, default-free securities that are issued by the government. There is one steady state with matured securities at par and, for some parameters, another with them at a discount. In the former, exogenous rejection of unmatured securities by the government is necessary and sufficient for such a steady state to display a positive nominal yield on unmatured securities. In the latter, the post-maturity discount on securities induces a deeper pre-maturity discount even if there is no exogenous rejection of unmatured securities.
Palabra clave: Maturity, Government securities, and Interest rates Tema: E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy and E43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
Creator: Altug, Sumru Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 343 Descripción:
"These notes were... initially circulated as Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Paper 343, 1987."
Palabra clave: Money stock, Bubble, Phillip Cagan, Price bubbles, Currency reform, Real cash balances, Hyperinflation, and Price fluctuations Tema: E51 - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers and E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Creator: Prescott, Edward C. and Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor Series: Advances in dynamic economics Abstract:
A necessary feature for equilibrium is that beliefs about the behavior of other agents are rational. We argue that in stationary OLG environments this implies that any future generation in the same situation as the initial generation must do as well as the initial generation did in that situation. We conclude that the existing equilibrium concepts in the literature do not satisfy this condition. We then propose an alternative equilibrium concept, organizational equilibrium, that satisfies this condition. We show that equilibrium exists, it is unique, and it improves over autarky without achieving optimality. Moreover, the equilibrium can be readily found by solving a maximization program.
Palabra clave: Rational behavior, Equilibrium, and Overlapping generations Tema: D51 - Exchange and Production Economies and E13 - General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical