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Creator: Chari, V. V., Christiano, Lawrence J., and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 147 Abstract:
This paper studies the quantitative properties of fiscal and monetary policy in business cycle models. In terms of fiscal policy, optimal labor tax rates are virtually constant and optimal capital income tax rates are close to zero on average. In terms of monetary policy, the Friedman rule is optimal—nominal interest rates are zero—and optimal monetary policy is activist in the sense that it responds to shocks to the economy.
Creator: Alvarez, Fernando, 1964-, Kehoe, Patrick J., and Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 616 Abstract:
Are optimal monetary and fiscal policies time consistent in a monetary economy? Yes, but if and only if under commitment the Friedman rule of setting nominal interest rates to zero is optimal. This result is of applied interest because the Friedman rule is optimal for the standard preferences used in applied work, those consistent with the growth facts.
Palabra clave: Sustainable plans, Maturity structure, Friedman rule, and Time inconsistency
Creator: Lagos, Ricardo and Wright, Randall D. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 346 Abstract:
Search-theoretic models of monetary exchange are based on explicit descriptions of the frictions that make money essential. However, tractable versions of these models typically need strong assumptions that make them ill-suited for studying monetary policy. We propose a framework based on explicit micro foundations within which macro policy can be analyzed. The model is both analytically tractable and amenable to quantitative analysis. We demonstrate this by using it to estimate the welfare cost of inflation. We find much higher costs than the previous literature: our model predicts that going from 10% to 0% inflation can be worth between 3% and 5% of consumption.
Creator: Bryant, John B. and Wallace, Neil Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 042 Abstract:
This paper presents a welfare analysis of monetary policy rules that differ as regards the extent to which monetary policy accommodates an exogenous, stochastic deficit. Examples show that a nonaccommodating rule, one involving a higher ratio of bonds to currency the higher the deficit, is not necessarily better than rules that accommodate: either a rule involving a constant ratio of bonds to currency or one involving a lower ratio of bonds to currency the higher the deficit. Moreover, the nonaccommodating rule can imply more variation in the price level than the accommodating rules.
Creator: Alvarez, Fernando, 1964-, Kehoe, Patrick J., and Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 305 Abstract:
We show that optimal monetary and fiscal policies are time consistent for a class of economies often used in applied work, economies appealing because they are consistent with the growth facts. We establish our results in two steps. We first show that for this class of economies, the Friedman rule of setting nominal interest rates to zero is optimal under commitment. We then show that optimal policies are time consistent if the Friedman rule is optimal. For our benchmark economy in which the time consistency problem is most severe, the converse also holds: if optimal policies are time consistent, then the Friedman rule is optimal.
Creator: Bryant, John B. and Wallace, Neil Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 123 Abstract:
In "Open Market Operations in a Model of Regulated, Insured Intermediaries" [JPE, forthcoming] we show that once-for-all open market purchases need not be inflationary. Here we show this result can carry over to various stationary accommodation rules given stochastic deficits. In particular, the inflationary and deflationary effects of stochastic deficits are not offset by, nor welfare improved by, a monetary policy that leans toward monetarism. Moreover, a constant money growth rule is not in the class of stationary policies given the kind of stochastic deficit we analyze, which by itself is a serious indictment of the monetarist proposal.
Palabra clave: Accomodation rules, Inflation, Monetarism, Debt, and Deflation Tema: E51 - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers and H62 - National Deficit; Surplus
Creator: Rolnick, Arthur J., 1944-, Velde, François R., and Weber, Warren E. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 536 Abstract:
This paper establishes the stylized fact that medieval debasements were accompanied by unusually large minting volumes and revenues. This fact is a puzzle under the commonly held view that metallic coins are commodity money and exchange by weight. An existing explanation is that debased coins were used to reduce the real burden of nominally denominated debts. This explanation is logically flawed: nothing prevents agents from renegotiating contracts and avoid incurring minting costs. The paper also establishes other facts about monetary mutations, which altogether pose a challenge to monetary economics.
Creator: Kehoe, Patrick J. and Midrigan, Virgiliu Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 652 Abstract:
In the data, a sizable fraction of price changes are temporary price reductions referred to as sales. Existing models include no role for sales. Hence, when confronted with data in which a large fraction of price changes are sales related, the models must either exclude sales from the data or leave them in and implicitly treat sales like any other price change. When sales are included, prices change frequently and standard sticky price models with this high frequency of price changes predict small effects from money shocks. If sales are excluded, prices change much less frequently and a standard sticky price model with this low frequency of price changes predict much larger effects of money shocks. This paper adds a motive for sales in a parsimonious extension of existing sticky price models. We show that the model can account for most of the patterns of sales in the data. Using our model as the data generating process, we evaluate the existing approaches and find that neither well approximates the real effects of money in our economy in which sales are explicitly modeled.
Creator: Christiano, Lawrence J. and Eichenbaum, Martin S. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 478 Descripción:
This technical appendix supports "Liquidity Effects, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle" in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (November 1995, Vol. 27, No. 4, Pt. 1, pp. 1113-1136), https://doi.org/10.2307/2077793.
Palabra clave: Appendix, Computations, MATLAB, Monetary policy, Business cycles, Liquidity, and Mathematical computations Tema: E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles, Y10 - Data: Tables and Charts, and E52 - Monetary Policy