Staff Report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.)
Three of the arguments made by Temin (2008) in his review of Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century are demonstrably wrong: that the treatment of the data in the volume is cursory; that the definition of great depressions is too general and, in particular, groups slow growth experiences in Latin America in the 1980s with far more severe great depressions in Europe in the 1930s; and that the book is an advertisement for the real business cycle methodology. Without these three arguments — which are the results of obvious conceptual and arithmetical errors, including copying the wrong column of data from a source — his review says little more than that he does not think it appropriate to apply our dynamic general equilibrium methodology to the study of great depressions, and he does not like the conclusion that we draw: that a successful model of a great depression needs to be able to account for the effects of government policy on productivity.
In 2008, Peter Temin wrote a review of the book that appeared in the Journal of Economic Literature. This staff report and accompanying data file are in response to the review.
Citation for review: Temin, Peter. 2008. "Real Business Cycle Views of the Great Depression and Recent Events: A Review of Timothy J. Kehoe and Edward C. Prescott's Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century." Journal of Economic Literature, 46 (3): 669-84. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.46.3.669
Warren Weber joined the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in 1981 and served as senior research officer in the Research Department from 1989 to 2012, when he retired. Before joining the Bank, he taught economics at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Tulane University and Duke University. He also has been an adjunct economics professor at the University of Minnesota. Warren's M.S. and Ph.D. degrees are from Carnegie-Mellon University. His research agenda focuses on monetary and banking theory and history, with particular emphasis on banking in the United States before 1861. Weber is currently a Visiting Scholar at the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and a Visiting Professor at the University of South Carolina.
The Warren E. Weber Historical Data Archives consists of data collected by Weber while at the Minneapolis Fed including banknote discounts, disaggregated call reports, census of state banks, railroad stock prices, international data, and antebellum U.S. state bank balance sheets.
This data set consists of individual bank balance sheets for the antebellum period in the United States compiled from reports of state banking authorities. The data set is updated periodically. For each state, data are available in two forms. The worksheet “detailed” contains the data in as detailed a form as in the original source. In the worksheet “standardized”, data are presented in a consistent set of asset and liability categories for each bank.
In the compilation, individual asset and liability categories have been preserved as much as possible. The data have also been modified in two primary ways:
•Where the original data have both differences between assets and liabilities for a given bank and corresponding differences in reported aggregated totals for individual asset/liability categories, the data have been changed to eliminate such differences.
•Where the original data have obvious inaccuracies (e.g., capital of $100,000 for several years in a row and then $10,000 for one year), such inaccuracies have been corrected.
Note also that for many dates, aggregate totals for individual asset/liability categories do not match reported data, presumably due to calculation and other errors by the original compilers.
Some of the downloadable Excel files that follow use Pre-1900 dates that Excel does not natively handle.
The financial assistance of the Financial Services Research Group of the Federal Reserve System in compiling this data set is gratefully acknowledged.
Staff Reports (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)
This appendix contains seven sections. Section A reports results from running regressions of labor earnings on GDP using data from the PSID, for comparison with the results using HRS data in the body of the paper. Section B examines the relationship between family income, aggregate shocks, and risk preferences in the PSID. Section C gives technical details on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation employed in table 1 of the paper and reports the complete parameter estimates for the regressions summarized in that table. Section D reports results when the relationship between earnings and aggregate shocks is estimated with individual-specific coecients rather than common coecients for each risk-tolerance group. Section E reports results comparable to table 1 of the paper and table D.1 of this appendix using only Social Security covered earnings instead of the
combination of Social Security and W-2 earnings. Section F reports robustness checks for tables 2 and 3 of the paper under alternative definitions of the household and the consumption and income variables. Section G reports robustness checks for tables 2 and 3 under an alternative definition of the leisure variable.
This paper reports some empirical evidence on the relation between the expected real interest rate and monetary aggregates in postwar U.S. data. We find some evidence against the hypothesis, implied by the Real Business Cycle model of Litterman and Weiss (1985), that the expected real interest rate follows a univariate autoregressive process, not Granger-caused by monetary aggregates. Our findings, however, are consistent with a more general bivariate model--suggested by what Barro (1987, Chapter 5) refers to as "the basic market-clearing model"--in which the real rate depends on its own lagged values and on lagged output. Taking this bivariate model as our null hypothesis, we find no evidence that money-stock changes have a significant liquidity effect on the expected real interest rate.
We report estimates of the dynamic effects of a technology shock, and then use these to estimate the parameters of a dynamic general equilibrium model with money. We find: (i) a positive technology shock drives up hours worked, consumption, investment and output; (ii) the positive response of hours worked reflects that the Fed has in practice accommodated technology shocks; (iii) model parameter values and functional forms that match the response of macroeconomic variables to monetary policy shocks also work well for technology shocks; (iv) while technology shocks account for a large fraction of the lower frequency component of economic fluctuations, they account for only a small part of the business cycle component of fluctuations.
System committee on agriculture and rural development
Handout for "Policy Concerning Water Markets": Using Water Better: A Market-Based Approach to California's Water Crisis, by Ronald H. Schmidt and Frederick Cannon. Published 1991 by Bay Area Economic Forum (Calif.), Association of Bay Area Governments, Bay Area Council (Calif.). Handout for "Environmental Issues and Ag Lending": Land Values and Environmental Regulation by Michael D. Boehlge, Philip M. Raup and Kent D. Olson. University of Minnesota Department of Agricutural and Applied Economics Staff Paper P91-3, January 1991.