Creator: Backus, David, Kehoe, Patrick J., and Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- Series: Modeling North American economic integration Abstract:
We look for the scale effects on growth predicted by some theories of trade and growth based on dynamic returns to scale at the national or industry level. The increasing returns can arise from learning by doing, investment in human capital, research and development, or development of new products. We find some evidence of a relation between growth rates and the measures of scale implied by the learning by doing theory, especially total manufacturing. With respect to human capital, there is some evidence of a relation between growth rates and per capita measures of inputs into the human capital accumulation process, but little evidence of a relation with the scale of inputs. There is also little evidence that growth rates are related to measures of inputs into R&D. We find, however, that growth rates are related to measures of intra-industry trade, particularly when we control for scale of industry.
Keyword: External effects, Intra-industry trade, Specialization indexes, Increasing returns to scale, Learning by doing, Research and development, Human capital, and International trade Subject (JEL): F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies and O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Creator: Holmes, Thomas J. and Stevens, John J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 304 Abstract:
Does national market size matter for industrial structure? Round One (Krugman) answered in the affirmative: Home market effects matter. Round Two (Davis) refuted this, arguing that an assumption of convenience—transport costs only for the differentiated goods—conveniently obtained the result. In Round Three we relax another persistent assumption of convenience—two industry types differentiated only by the degree of scale economies—and find that market size reemerges as a relevant force in determining industrial structure.
Keyword: Market size, Scale economies, and Home market effects Subject (JEL): O10 - Economic Development: General, F00 - International Economics: General, and R10 - General Regional Economics (includes Regional Data)
Creator: Rivera-Batiz, Luis and Romer, Paul Michael, 1955- Series: Modeling North American economic integration Abstract:
In a world with two similar, developed economies, economic integration can cause a permanent increase in the worldwide rate of growth. Starting from a position of isolations, closer integration can be achieved by increasing trade in goods or by increasing flows of ideas. We consider two models with different specifications of the research and development sector that is the source of growth. Either form of integration can increase the long-run rate of growth if it encourages the worldwide exploitation of increasing returns to scale in the research and development sector.
Subject (JEL): F15 - Economic Integration, F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies, and O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Creator: Holmes, Thomas J. and Singer, Ethan Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 739 Abstract:
This paper develops and estimates a model of indivisibilities in shipping and economies of scale in consolidation. It uses highly detailed data on imports where it is possible to observe the contents of individual containers. In the model, ﬁrms are able to adapt to indivisibility constraints by using consolidation strategies and by making adjustments to shipment size. The ﬁrm determines the optimal number of domestic ports to use, taking into account that adding more ports lowers inland freight cost, at the expense of a higher indivisibility cost. The estimated model is able to roughly account for Walmart’s port choice behavior. The model estimates are used to evaluate how mergers or dissolutions of ﬁrms or countries, and changes in variety, affect indivisibility costs and inland freight costs.
Keyword: Scale economies, Walmart, Technological change, and Indivisibilities Subject (JEL): L10 - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance: General, R40 - Transportation Economics: General, and F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
Creator: Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban and Wright, Mark L. J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 381 Abstract:
Most economic activity occurs in cities. This creates a tension between local increasing returns, implied by the existence of cities, and aggregate constant returns, implied by balanced growth. To address this tension, we develop a general equilibrium theory of economic growth in an urban environment. In our theory, variation in the urban structure through the growth, birth, and death of cities is the margin that eliminates local increasing returns to yield constant returns to scale in the aggregate. We show that, consistent with the data, the theory produces a city size distribution that is well approximated by Zipf’s Law, but that also displays the observed systematic under-representation of both very small and very large cities. Using our model, we show that the dispersion of city sizes is consistent with the dispersion of productivity shocks found in the data.
Keyword: Balanced Growth, Gibrat's Law, Size Distribution of Cities, Economic Growth, Zip's Law, and Scale Effects Subject (JEL): E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics: General, R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: General, and O40 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
Creator: Bergoeing, Raphael and Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 284 Abstract:
This paper quantitatively tests the “new trade theory” based on product differentiation, increasing returns, and imperfect competition. We employ a standard model, which allows both changes in the distribution of income among industrialized countries, emphasized by Helpman and Krugman (1985), and nonhomothetic preferences, emphasized by Markusen (1986), to effect trade directions and volumes. In addition, we generalize the model to allow changes in relative prices to have large effects. We test the model by calibrating it to 1990 data and then “backcasting” to 1961 to see what changes in crucial variables between 1961 and 1990 are predicted by the theory. The results show that, although the model is capable of explaining much of the increased concentration of trade among industrialized countries, it is not capable of explaining the enormous increase in the ratio of trade to income. Our analysis suggests that it is policy changes, rather than the elements emphasized in the new trade theory, that have been the most significant determinants of the increase in trade volume.
Keyword: Nonhomothetic Preferences, Intraindustry Trade, Imperfect Competition, Scale Economics, Trade Growth, and Product Differentiation Subject (JEL): F13 - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations, F12 - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation, and F17 - Trade: Forecasting and Simulation
Creator: Backus, David and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 318 Abstract:
These notes are intended as a do-it-yourself course in economic growth along lines suggested by Lucas ("On the Mechanics of Economic Development"). We examine in turn the neoclassical growth model; theories of endogenous growth, including learning-by-doing, increasing returns to scale, and externalities; and dynamic comparative advantage in trade. Salient features of growing economies and microeconomic evidence on production processes are used to evaluate alternatives. Exercises supplement the text.
Keyword: Technical change, Neoclassical growth, Dynamic comparative advantage, Learning-by-doing, and Returns to scale Subject (JEL): F11 - Neoclassical Models of Trade, O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes, and O42 - Monetary Growth Models
Creator: Atkeson, Andrew and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 513 Abstract:
In this paper, we build a model of the transition following large-scale economic reforms that predicts both a substantial drop in output and a prolonged pause in physical investment as the initial phase of the optimal transition following the reform. We model reform as a change in policy which induces agents to close existing enterprises using old technologies of production and to open up new enterprises adopting new technologies of production. The central idea of our paper is that it is costly to close old enterprises and open new enterprises because, in doing so, information capital built up about old enterprises is lost and time must pass before information capital about new enterprises can be acquired. Thus, an acceleration of the pace of industry evolution leads in the short run to a net loss of information capital, a drop in productivity, a recession, and a fall in physical investment. We calibrate our model of industry evolution, information capital, and transition to match micro data on industry evolution in the United States and macro data from the United States, Japan, and the former communist countries of Europe. We find that the loss of information capital that accompanies a major acceleration in the pace of industry evolution in an economy leads initially to a decade of recession and a five year pause in physical investment before the benefits of reform are realized.
Keyword: Information capital, Recession, Transition, Industrial evolution, Economic reform, Technological evolution, Policy change, and Technology change Subject (JEL): O25 - Industrial Policy and O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
Creator: Benhabib, Jess, 1948- and Farmer, Roger E. A. Series: Lucas expectations anniversary conference Abstract:
We introduce, into a version of the Real Business Cycle model, mild increasing returns-to-scale. These increasing returns-to-scale occur as a consequence of sector specific externalities, that is externalities where the output of the consumption and investment sectors have external effects on the output of firms within their own sector. Keeping the production technologies for both sectors identical for expositional simplicity, we show that indeterminacy can easily occur for parameter values typically used in the real business cycle literature, and in contrast to some earlier literature on indeterminacies, for externalities mild enough so that labor demand curves are downward sloping.
Keyword: Cycle, Real business cycle, Business fluctuations, Indeterminacy, Sunspots, and Business cycles Subject (JEL): E00 - Macroeconomics and monetary economics - General - General, E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles, and E40 - Money and interest rates - General
Creator: Boldrin, Michele and Levine, David K. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 360 Abstract:
Intellectual property protection involves a trade-off between the undesirability of monopoly and the desirable encouragement of creation and innovation. As the scale of the market increases, due either to economic and population growth or to the expansion of trade through treaties such as the World Trade Organization, this trade-off changes. We show that, generally speaking, the socially optimal amount of protection decreases as the scale of the market increases. We also provide simple empirical estimates of how much it should decrease.
Keyword: Intellectual Property, Monopoly, Innovation, International Trade, and Harmonization