Creator: Perri, Fabrizio and Quadrini, Vincenzo Series: Great depressions of the twentieth century Abstract:
We analyze the Italian economy in the interwar years. In Italy, as in many other countries, the years immmediately after 1929 were characterized by a major slowdown in economic activity as non farm output declined almost 12. We argue that the slowdown cannot be explained solely by productivity shocks and that other factors must have contributed to the depth and duration of the the 1929 crisis. We present a model in which trade restrictions together with wage rigidities produce a slowdown in economic activity that is consistent with the one observed in the data. The model is also consistent with evidence from sectorial disaggregated data. Our model predicts that trade restrictions can account for about 3/4 of the observed slowdown while wage rigidity (monetary shocks) can account for the remaining fourth.
Keyword: Wage rigidity, Italy, Depressions, and Trade restrictions Subject (JEL): N14 - Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: Europe: 1913- and E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Creator: Perri, Fabrizio and Quadrini, Vincenzo Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 463 Abstract:
The 2007–2009 crisis was characterized by an unprecedented degree of international synchronization as all major industrialized countries experienced large macroeconomic contractions around the date of Lehman bankruptcy. At the same time countries also experienced large and synchronized tightening of credit conditions. We present a two-country model with financial market frictions where a credit tightening can emerge as a self-fulfilling equilibrium caused by pessimistic but fully rational expectations. As a result of the credit tightening, countries experience large and endogenously synchronized declines in asset prices and economic activity (international recessions). The model suggests that these recessions are more severe if they happen after a prolonged period of credit expansion.
Keyword: International co-movement, Global liquidity, and Credit shocks Subject (JEL): G01 - Financial Crises, F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics, and F44 - International Business Cycles
Creator: Quadrini, Vincenzo and Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor Series: Quarterly review (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: Vol. 21, No. 2 Abstract:
This article describes the current state of economic theory intended to explain the unequal distribution of wealth among U.S. households. The models reviewed are heterogeneous agent versions of standard neoclassical growth models with uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks to earnings. The models endogenously generate differences in asset holdings as a result of the household's desire to smooth consumption while earnings fluctuate. Both of the dominant types of models—dynastic and life cycle models—reproduce the U.S. wealth distribution poorly. The article describes several features recently proposed as additions to the theory based on changes in earnings, including business ownership, higher rates of return on high asset levels, random capital gains, government programs to guarantee a minimum level of consumption, and changes in health and marital status. None of these features has been fully analyzed yet, but they all seem to have potential to move the models in the right direction.
Creator: Krusell, Per, Quadrini, Vincenzo, and Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor Series: Lucas expectations anniversary conference Abstract:
We use political-equilibrium theory and the neoclassical growth model to compare the quantitative properties of different tax systems. We first explore whether societies which can only use consumption taxes fare better than societies which can only use income taxes. We find that if government outlays are used mainly for redistribution through transfers, then the answer is no, contradicting conventional wisdom in public finance. The reason for this is that when taxes are endogenous, and voted on by a selfish constituency, the distortionary effects of taxation are taken into account in choosing the level of taxation. Hence, political equilibria have the property that taxes which are relatively distortionary will be relatively low. These results are overturned if the government outlays are used only for the providing of public goods, implying that less distortionary taxes give better outcomes. We also investigate the properties of a tax systems in which both consumption and income taxes are used and voted on simultaneously. Since the ability to use more tax instruments allows redistribution with less distortions, the total amount of transfers tends to be higher here than in one-tax systems. Typically, tax systems tend to be self-perpetuating in the sense that changes of the tax system result in a reduction in the welfare of the median voter.
Keyword: Tax system, Tax, Consumption tax, Taxes, and Income tax Subject (JEL): E62 - Fiscal Policy, H24 - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies; includes inheritance and gift taxes, and H25 - Business Taxes and Subsidies including sales and value-added (VAT)
Creator: Díaz-Giménez, Javier, Quadrini, Vincenzo, and Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor Series: Quarterly review (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: Vol. 21, No. 1 Abstract:
This article describes some facts about financial inequality in the United States that a good theory of inequality must be able to explain. These include the facts that labor earnings, income, and wealth are all unequally distributed among U.S. households, but the distributions are significantly different. Wealth is much more concentrated than the other two. Wealth is positively correlated with earnings and income, but not strongly. The movement of households up and down the economic scale is greater when measured by income than by earnings or wealth. Differences across the three variables remain when the data are disaggregated by age, employment status, educational level, and marital status of the heads of U.S. households. Each of these classifications also has significant differences across households. All the facts are based on data taken from the 1992 Survey of Consumer Finances and the 1984–85 and 1989–90 Panel Study of Income Dynamics.
Creator: Budría Rodríguez, Santiago, Díaz-Giménez, Javier, Quadrini, Vincenzo, and Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor Series: Quarterly review (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: Vol. 26, No. 3 Abstract:
This article uses data from the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances and from recent waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to update a study of economic inequality in the United States based on 1992 and earlier data. The article reports data on the U.S. distributions of earnings, income, and wealth and on related features of inequality, such as age, employment status, educational attainment, and marital status. It also reports data on the economic inequality among U.S. households in financial trouble and on the economic mobility of U.S. households. The article finds that earnings, income, and wealth were very unequally distributed among U.S. households late in the 1990s, just as they had been at the beginning of the decade. It concludes that the basic facts about economic inequality in the United States did not change much during the 1990s.
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- and Prescott, Edward C. Description:
The worldwide Great Depression of the 1930s was a watershed for both economic thought and economic policymaking. It led to the belief that market economies are inherently unstable and to the revolutionary work of John Maynard Keynes. Its impact on popular economic wisdom is still apparent today.
This book, which uses a common framework to study sixteen depressions, from the interwar period in Europe and America as well as from more recent times in Japan and Latin America, challenges the Keynesian theory of depressions. It develops and uses a methodology for studying depressions that relies on growth accounting and the general equilibrium growth model.
Each chapter of the book is accompanied by a data file that contains all of the data used in the analysis. These files can be found in the Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century: Supporting Data and Code collection.
Table of Contents
Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century by Timothy J. Kehoe and Edward C. Prescott
A Second Look at the U.S. Great Depression from a Neoclassical Perspective by Harold L. Cole and Lee E. Ohanian
The Great U.K. Depression: A Puzzle and Possible Resolution by Harold L. Cole and Lee E. Ohanian
The Great Depression in Canada and the United States: A Neoclassical Perspective by Pedro Amaral and James C. MacGee
The French Depression in the 1930s by Paul Beaudry and Franck Portier
The Role of Real Wages, Productivity, and Fiscal Policy in Germany's Great Depression, 1928-37 by Jonas D. M. Fisher and Andreas Hornstein
The Great Depression in Italy: Trade Restrictions and Real Wage Rigidities by Fabrizio Perri and Vincenzo Quadrini
Argentina's Lost Decade and the Subsequent Recover Puzzle by Finn E. Kydland and Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga
A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s by Raphael Bergoeing, Patrick J. Kehoe, Timothy J. Kehoe, and Raimundo Soto
The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade by Fumio Hayashi and Edward C. Prescott
The Brazilian Depression in the 1980s and 1990s by Mirta S. Bugarin, Roberto Ellery Jr., Victor Gomes, and Arilton Teixeira
Tariffs and the Great Depression Revisited by Mario J. Crucini and James A. Kahn
Recent Great Depressions: Aggregate Growth in New Zealand and Switzerland by Timothy J. Kehoe and Kim J. Ruhl
What Can We Learn from the 1998-2002 Depression in Argentina? by Timothy J. Kehoe
Prosperity and Depression by Edward C. Prescott
Modeling Great Depressions: The Depression in Finland in the 1990s by Juan Carlos Conesa, Timothy J. Kehoe, and Kim J. Ruhl