Research Database

We study the ex-dividend day behavior of Japanese stock prices for the period 1983–87. We find that, contrary to previous findings, prices of ex-day stocks drop by nearly the full amount of the dividend. However, ex-day stocks shows an abnormal return. Also, for the many ex-dividend day stocks that also go ex-rights on the same ex-day, we find that the return is on average higher than that for stocks without rights issues. We thus conclude that the ex-day behavior of Japanese stocks are qualitatively similar to that of U.S. stocks.

There are two approaches to maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the parameter of fractionally-integrated noise: approximate frequency-domain ML (Fox and Taqqwu, 1986) and exact time-domain ML (Solwell, 1990a). If the mean of the process is known, then a clear finite-sample mean-squared error (MSE) ranking of the estimators emerges: the exact time-domain estimator has smaller MSE. We show in this paper, however, that the finite-sample efficiency of approximate frequency-domain ML relative to exact time-domain ML rises dramatically when the mean result is unknown and instead must be estimated. The intuition for our result is straightforward: The frequency-domain ML estimator is invariant to the true but unknown mean of the process, while the time-domain ML estimator is not. Feasible time-domain estimation must therefore be based upon de-meaned data, but the long memory associated with fractional integration makes precise estimation of the mean difficult. We conclude that the frequency-domain estimator is an attractive and efficient alternative for situations in which large sample sizes render time-domain estimation impractical.

This paper establishes that partial suspension is an optimal arrangement in an aggregate-risk version of the Diamond-Dybvig (1983) model. The model is a variant of Wallace (1988) in which aggregate risk about the fraction of agents who "want to" consume early is limited to a small group who show up last to possibly withdraw early. Partial suspension means that when they do withdraw early, members of this group get less than those who showed up first to withdraw early. Limiting the aggregate risk to a group who show up last is a simplifying assumption because it makes it impossible to draw inferences about the aggregate state from the actions of those who show up first.

This paper, originally published in the spring 1983 Quarterly Review, explains why flat-rate deposit insurance gives financial intermediaries an incentive to take on too much risk. It also discusses the purposes of deposit insurance and some ways reforms might serve those purposes. Three possible reforms are discussed: abolishing the insurance and requiring depository institutions to either hold safe assets or mark to market, reducing the deposit ceilings for insurance, and risk-adjusting the insurance premia.

This paper describes and analyzes the 1990–92 economic forecasts of a Bayesian vector autoregression model developed by researchers at the Minneapolis Fed. The model's 1990 forecast was pretty bad—too optimistic about both inflation and economic growth, especially growth in consumption and housing. An analysis of the model's errors, however, turns up no reason to think the model is unsound. Based on data available on November 30, 1990, the model predicts weak economic conditions for the next two years: a likely recession in 1991 and moderate inflation and weak overall growth in 1991–92. The paper includes a technical appendix that describes how to statistically compare the accuracy of two sets of forecasts.

Previous investigations of whether the volatility of the U.S. economy diminished after World War II have been inconclusive because of questionable prewar macroeconomic aggregates. We examine, more broadly, the hypothesis of the stabilization of the postwar economy by focusing on the duration of business cycles, rather than their amplitude; in the process, we avoid the debate about the quality of prewar aggregates. Using distribution-free statistics, we find clear evidence of postwar duration stabilization in terms of a shift toward longer expansions and shorter contractions. Moreover, we find no shift in whole-cycle durations, which suggests a reallocation of the business cycle away from contraction and toward expansion.

This paper argues that the reporting of facts in light of theory fosters the development of theory. Dynamic neoclassical macro theory guided the selection of facts to report. The hope is that these facts will foster the further development of this theory. A finding is that the price level is countercyclical in the post-Korean War period. This finding debunks the myths that the price level is procyclical, with the postwar period being no exception.

Purchasing power parity is one of the most important equilibrium conditions in international macroeconomics. Empirically, it is also one of the most hotly contested. Numerous recent studies, for example, have sought to determine the validity of purchasing power parity using data from the post-Bretton-Woods float and have reached different conclusions. We assert that most such studies are flawed for two reasons. First, the post-1973 data contain, by definition, only a very limited amount of the low-frequency information relevant for examination of long-run parity. Second, the dynamic econometric techniques used to model deviations from parity are typically quite crude with respect to the modeling of low-frequency dynamics. Both deficiencies are rectified in the present paper, with dramatic results. We construct a new dataset of sixteen real exchange rates covering more than a century of the classic gold standard period, and we study deviations from parity using long-memory models that allow for subtle forms of mean reversion. For each real exchange rate, we find that parity holds in the long run.