Creator: Litterman, Robert B. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 200 Abstract:
Using optimal control theory and a vector autoregressive representation of the relationship between money and interest rates one can derive a feedback control procedure which defines the best possible tradeoff between interest rate volatility and money supply fluctuations and which could be used to reduce both from their current levels.
Keyword: Control theory, Inflation, Federal Reserve Bank, Optimal control theory, and Time series analysis Subject (JEL): E51 - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers, E40 - Money and Interest Rates: General, and E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
Creator: Altug, Sumru Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 286 Abstract:
This paper characterizes the behavior of investment expenditures, optimal capital stocks, and real interest rates in the time-to-build model of investment. These results are used to show that the delivery lag model of investment fails to account for time lags in investment when constructing the cost of capital variable and hence, misspecifies the effects of interest rates on investment expenditures. Second, this paper derives equilibrium pricing relationships involving the prices of existing capital and uses these relationships to obtain simple tests of the underlying investment technology. Despite the widespread use of 'q' in the empirical investment literature, it is shown that the relationship between current investment and an appropriately defined measure of Tobin's 'q' contains no such testable implications. Finally, it is shown that the practice of using stock market data to measure the price of existing capital is invalid when time lags exist in the investment process.
Keyword: Time lag, Equilibrium pricing, Capital stocks, and Lag Subject (JEL): E22 - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
Creator: Aiyagari, S. Rao Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 328 Abstract:
One purpose of this article is to exposit the relationship between life cycle models (with constructive immortality) and infinitely lived agents models. We use this to point out problems in interpreting data, especially with regard to the use of interest rates in the class of representative agent models when growth in population and per capita variables is taken into account. We also point out some common misconceptions regarding the "volume of trade" in representative agent models and show how to reconcile the savings profile of the representative agent with the life cycle savings profile in a life cycle model.
Keyword: Calibration, Bequests, Infinitely lived agents, Representative agent models, and Volume of trade Subject (JEL): D91 - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making