Research Database

This paper investigates the one-sector growth model where agents experience idiosyncratic endowment shocks and face a borrowing constraint. It is shown that a steady-state capital level lies strictly above the steady state in the model without shocks. In addition, the capital stock increases monotonically when it is sufficiently far below a steady state. However, near a steady state there can be interesting (nonmonotonic) economic dynamics.

We deduce properties of optimal monetary policies based on modern theory and standard empirical findings. In light of this analysis, we examine FOMC policy procedures and conclude that they put too much emphasis on short-term economic stabilization and too little emphasis on longer-term price stability. We propose a form of inflation targeting to address this problem.

Recent research in evaluating the effects of monetary policy is potentially tainted by the problem of time aggregation: that is, effects may be incorrectly estimated using quarterly data if the effects of policy occur rapidly. This study evaluates whether time aggregation is a serious problem in a simple vector autoregression. It shows time aggregation has little impact on evaluating the effect of monetary policy in a simple vector autoregression including total reserves, nonborrowed reserves, and the federal funds rate. This finding suggests that time aggregation is unlikely to be important in evaluating the effects of monetary policy in models including a goal variable, such as GDP growth.

This study primarily establishes two things: (1) that monopoly has been pervasive in the U.S. water transportation industry in both the 19th and 20th centuries and has led to prices above competitive levels and the adoption of inefficient technologies and (2) that the competition of railroads has greatly weakened this monopolistic tendency, leading to lower water transport prices and fewer inefficient technologies. The study establishes these points using standard economic theory and extensive historical U.S. data on the behavior of unions and shipping companies. These gains from competition have been ignored by researchers studying the contribution of railroads to U.S. economic growth. Researchers have assumed that if railroads had not been developed, the long-distance transportation industry would have been competitive. This study shows that it would not have been. The quantitative estimates of previous studies thus are likely to have significantly understated the gains from the development of railroads.