Research Database

Includes title: "Minnesota Economic Environment: 1985" by David Dahl, John Rosine and Thomas Supel

This paper reexamines volatility tests of the expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. The restrictions of the model are studied in a general multivariate MA representation of the time series process of interest rates under various assumptions on the number of unit roots and the pattern of cointegration. Test statistics are computed by Bayesian techniques. We find that the long term interest rate overreacts to transitory shocks, and underreacts to permanent shocks.

Economists and policymakers disagree on the lengths central banks should go in pursuit of price stability and, in fact, on exactly what price stability means. This essay advocates that central banks try to maintain stable price levels in their countries, and it argues that the benefits of achieving this objective are worth the transition costs. The essay reviews some of the relevant academic literature on the economic effects of inflation and specifically addresses the issues of transition cost, fiscal dominance, and credibility.