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Creator: Mulligan, Casey B. Series: Great depressions of the twentieth century Abstract: I prove some theorems for competitive equilibria in the presence of distortionary taxes and other restraints of trade, and use those theorems to motivate an algorithm for (exactly) computing and empirically evaluating competitive equilibria in dynamic economies. Although its economics is relatively sophisticated, the algorithm is so computationally economical that it can be implemented with a few lines in a spreadsheet. Although a competitive equilibrium models interactions between all sectors, all consumer types, and all time periods, I show how my algorithm permits separate empirical evaluation of these pieces of the model and hence is practical even when very little data is available. For similar reasons, these evaluations are not particularly sensitive to how data is partitioned into "trends" and "cycles." I then compute a real business cycle model with distortionary taxes that fits aggregate U.S. time series for the period 192950 and conclude that, if it is to explain aggregate behavior during the period, government policy must have heavily taxed labor income during the Great Depression and lightly taxed it during the war. In other words, the challenge for the competitive equilibrium approach is not so much why output might change over time, but why the marginal product of labor and the marginal value of leisure diverged so much and why that wedge persisted so long. In this sense, explaining aggregate behavior during the period has been reduced to a public finance question  were actual government policies distorting behavior in the same direction and magnitude as government policies in the model?
Keyword: Depressions, Taxes, World War 2, and Competitive equilibrium models Subject (JEL): H30  Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General, E32  Business Fluctuations; Cycles, and C68  Computable General Equilibrium Models 

Creator: Todd, Richard M. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 310 Keyword: Buffer stock, Commodities, Commodity, Futures market, and Commodity futures Subject (JEL): G13  Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing; option pricing and C68  Computable General Equilibrium Models 

Creator: Bryant, John B. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 175 Abstract: Game theory is both at the heart of economics and without a definitive solution. This paper proposes a solution. It is argued that a dominance criterion generates a, and perhaps the, generalized equilibrium solution for game theory. First we provide a set theoretic perspective from which to view game theory, and then present and discuss the proposed solution.
Keyword: Nash equilbrium, Equilibria, and Dominance Subject (JEL): C72  Noncooperative Games, C68  Computable General Equilibrium Models, and C70  Game Theory and Bargaining Theory: General 
Creator: Bryant, John B. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 177 Description: "Nominal labor contracts replicate net of tax real contracts contingent on aggregate risk in the model presented. Perhaps this is a model of money." (title page note)
Keyword: Income tax, Wages, Inflation tax, and Labor economics Subject (JEL): C68  Computable General Equilibrium Models and J41  Labor Contracts 
Creator: Stutzer, Michael J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 300 Keyword: Equilibrium analysis, Infinite hyperreal number, Risk, Hyperinfinite probability theory, and Uncertainty Subject (JEL): D81  Criteria for DecisionMaking under Risk and Uncertainty and C68  Computable General Equilibrium Models 
Creator: Uhlig, Harald, 1961 Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 342 Abstract: [Please note that the following Greek lettering is improperly transcribed.] If [0,1] is a measure space of agents and X a collection of pairwise uncorrelated random variables with common finite mean U and variance a , one would like to establish a law of large numbers () Xdl = U. In this paper we propose to interpret () as a Pettis integral. Using the corresponding Riemanntype version of this integral, we establish (*) and interpret it as an L2law of large numbers. Intuitively, the main idea is to integrate before drawing an W, thus avoiding wellknow measurability problems. We discuss distributional properties of i.i.d. random shocks across the population. We given examples for the economic interpretability of our definition. Finally, we establish a vectorvalued version of the law of large numbers for economies.
Keyword: L2 law of large numbers, Pettis integral, Khinchines law of large numbers, Large numbers, Riemann integral, and Random variable Subject (JEL): C10  Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General 
Creator: Bryant, John B. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 168 Abstract: A simple model of backed money without a store of value function is presented, discussed, and defended. The function of money in the model is to replace complex contingent contracts traded on a centralized exchange with simple trades in decentralized markets.
Keyword: Commodity money, Contracts, and Fiat money Subject (JEL): E40  Money and Interest Rates: General and C10  Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General 