Creator: Backus, David. and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 359 Abstract:
We show that some classes of sterilized interventions have no effect on equilibrium prices or quantities. The proof does not depend on complete markets, infinitely-lived agents, Ricardian equivalence, monetary neutrality, or the law of one price. Moreover, regressions of exchange rates or interest differentials on variables measuring the currency composition of the debt may contain no information, in our theoretical economy, about the effectiveness of such interventions. Another class of interventions requires simultaneous changes in monetary and fiscal policy; their effects depend, generally, on the influence of tax distortions, government spending, and money supplies on economic behavior. We suggest that in applying the portfolio balance approach to the study of intervention, lack 01 explicit modeling of these features is a serious flaw.
Keyword: Debts, external and Foreign exchange law and legislation Subject (JEL): F41 - Macroeconomic aspects of international trade and finance - Open economy macroeconomics, F31 - International finance - Foreign exchange, and H30 - Fiscal policies and behavior of economic agents - General
Creator: Uhlig, Harald, 1961- Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 342 Abstract:
[Please note that the following Greek lettering is improperly transcribed.] If [0,1] is a measure space of agents and X---- a collection of pairwise uncorrelated random variables with common finite mean U and variance a , one would like to establish a law of large numbers () Xdl = U. In this paper we propose to interpret () as a Pettis integral. Using the corresponding Riemann-type version of this integral, we establish (*) and interpret it as an L2-law of large numbers. Intuitively, the main idea is to integrate before drawing an W, thus avoiding well-know measurability problems. We discuss distributional properties of i.i.d. random shocks across the population. We given examples for the economic interpretability of our definition. Finally, we establish a vector-valued version of the law of large numbers for economies.
Keyword: Random variable, Khinchines law of large numbers, L2 law of large numbers, Riemann integral, Pettis integral, and Large numbers Subject (JEL): C10 - Econometric and statistical methods : General - General
Creator: Aiyagari, S. Rao. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 319 Abstract:
We consider the existence of deterministically cycling steady state equilibria in a class of stationary overlapping generations models with sufficiently long (but, finite) lived agents. Preferences are of the discounted sum of utilities type with a fixed discount rate. Utility functions with large coefficients of relative risk aversion which generate strong income effects (relative to substitution effects) and backward bending offer curves are permitted. Lifetime endowment patterns are quite arbitrary. We show that if agents have a positive discount rate, then as agents1 lifespans get large, short period non-monetary cycles will disappear. Further, constant monetary steady states do not exist and therefore, neither do stationary monetary cycles of any period. We then consider the case where agents have a negative discount rate and show that there are robust examples in which constant monetary steady states as well as stationary monetary cycles (with undiminished amplitude) can occur no matter how long agents live.
Keyword: Longevity, Business cycles, Intertemporal choice, and Monetary theory Subject (JEL): D91 - Intertemporal choice and growth - Intertemporal consumer choice ; Life cycle models and saving and N10 - Macroeconomics and monetary economics ; Growth and fluctuations - General, international, or comparative
Creator: Todd, Richard M. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 270 Keyword: Federal grain programs , Agriculture, Feed grains, Crops, Livestock, and Feed prices Subject (JEL): Q18 - Agriculture - Agricultural policy ; Food policy and H81 - Miscellaneous issues - Governmental loans, loan guarantees, credits, and grants
Creator: Aiyagari, S. Rao. and Peled, Dan. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 503 Abstract:
It is often argued that with a positively skewed income distribution (median less than mean) a majority voting over proportional tax rates would result in higher tax rates than those that maximize average welfare, and will accordingly reduce aggregate savings. We reexamine this view in a capital accumulation model, in which distorting redistributive taxes provide insurance against idiosyncratic shocks, and income distributions evolve endogenously. We find small differences of either sign between the tax rates set by a majority voting and a utilitarian government, for reasonable parametric specifications. We show how these differences reflect a greater responsiveness of a utilitarian government to the average need for the insurance provided by the tax-redistribution scheme. These conclusions remain true despite the fact that the model simulations produce positively skewed distributions of total income across agents.
Keyword: Taxes, Income distribution, and Votes Subject (JEL): E62 - Macroeconomic policy, macroeconomic aspects of public finance, and general outlook - Fiscal policy and D72 - Analysis of collective decision-making - Models of political processes : Rent-seeking, elections, legislatures, and voting behavior
Creator: Green, Edward J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 501 Abstract:
I consider two theories of the determination of political institutions. One of these theories stresses effects of changes in the balance of military power between the ruler and subjects on the distribution of property rights which the political system enforces. The other theory emphasizes the effect of changing informational constraints which require institutional changes to be made in order to maintain efficiency. I examine how each of these theories would apply to explaining the development of parliamentary government in thirteenth-century England. My general conclusion is that both theories are required to understand fully the process by which liberal political institutions emerge.
Keyword: Great Britain, England, History, and Government Subject (JEL): H11 - Structure and scope of government - Structure, scope, and performance of government and N43 - Government, war, law, and regulation - Europe : Pre-1913
Creator: Sargent, Thomas J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 32 Keyword: Choices, Behavior, and Uncertainty Subject (JEL): D80 - Information, knowledge, and uncertainty - General
Creator: Auerbach, Kay J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 37 Description:
Note from cover: "Developed from remarks at the Chamber of Commerce sponsored seminar for the International Tariff Commission hearings on February 20, 1975 Minneapolis, Minnesota."
Keyword: Trade Act of 1974, United States, and International trade negotiations Subject (JEL): F13 - Trade - Trade policy ; International trade organizations