Creator: Altig, David, 1956-, Christiano, Lawrence J., Eichenbaum, Martin S., and Lindé, Jesper. Series: Joint commitee on business and financial analysis Abstract:
We report estimates of the dynamic effects of a technology shock, and then use these to estimate the parameters of a dynamic general equilibrium model with money. We find: (i) a positive technology shock drives up hours worked, consumption, investment and output; (ii) the positive response of hours worked reflects that the Fed has in practice accommodated technology shocks; (iii) model parameter values and functional forms that match the response of macroeconomic variables to monetary policy shocks also work well for technology shocks; (iv) while technology shocks account for a large fraction of the lower frequency component of economic fluctuations, they account for only a small part of the business cycle component of fluctuations.
Preliminary and incomplete
Keyword: Consumption, Technology, General equilibrium model, Shocks, and Fluctuations Subject (JEL): D58 - General equilibrium and disequilibrium - Computable and other applied general equilibrium models and E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles
Creator: Huffman, Gregory W. Series: Finance, fluctuations, and development Abstract:
In this paper a dynamic model is constructed in which labor and capital taxes are determined endogenously through majority voting. The wealth distribution of the economy is shown to influence the voting behavior, and hence the equilibrium levels of the tax rates, which in turn affect the future distribution of wealth. It is shown that the economy exhibits a unique dynamic behavior. Because of the endogenously determined taxes, the asset prices, wealth distribution, and the tax rates can display persistent fluctuations, and even limit cycles, in reaction to exogenous disturbances, or even due to initial conditions. It is also shown that "tax smoothing" does not necessarily appear to naturally arise in such a model, as the economy can display extreme fluctuations in the endogenously determined tax rates.
Keyword: Wealth distribution, Voting behavior, Asset prices, Policy formulation, Dynamic general equilibrium model, and Tax rates Subject (JEL): H25 - Taxation, subsidies and revenue - Business taxes and subsidies, D31 - Distribution - Personal income, wealth, and their distributions, H20 - Taxation, subsidies and revenue - General, and H24 - Taxation, subsidies and revenue - Personal income and other nonbusiness taxes and subsidies
Creator: Greenwood, Jeremy, 1953- and Williamson, Stephen D. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 363 Abstract:
A two country overlapping generations model is constructed, in which financial intermediation arises endogenously as an incentive compatible means of economizing on monitoring costs. Because of the existence of transaction costs, money markets in the two countries are segmented and investors have differential access to international credit markets. The model is used to generate predictions concerning the role of international intermediation in economic development, and to examine the nature of business cycle phenomena across alternative exchange rate regimes. Disturbances are propagated by a credit allocation mechanism, which also lends a novel flavor to the model's long run properties.
Keyword: Generations, Exchange rate, Business cycles, Economic models, and Financial policy Subject (JEL): E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles and F41 - Macroeconomic aspects of international trade and finance - Open economy macroeconomics
Creator: Diba, Behzad. and Oh, Seonghwan. Series: Business analysis committee meeting Abstract:
This paper reports some empirical evidence on the relation between the expected real interest rate and monetary aggregates in postwar U.S. data. We find some evidence against the hypothesis, implied by the Real Business Cycle model of Litterman and Weiss (1985), that the expected real interest rate follows a univariate autoregressive process, not Granger-caused by monetary aggregates. Our findings, however, are consistent with a more general bivariate model--suggested by what Barro (1987, Chapter 5) refers to as "the basic market-clearing model"--in which the real rate depends on its own lagged values and on lagged output. Taking this bivariate model as our null hypothesis, we find no evidence that money-stock changes have a significant liquidity effect on the expected real interest rate.
Subject (JEL): E43 - Money and interest rates - Determination of interest rates ; Term structure of interest rates, E51 - Monetary policy, central banking, and the supply of money and credit - Money supply ; Credit ; Money multipliers, and E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles
Creator: Chari, V. V., Kehoe, Patrick J., and McGrattan, Ellen R. Series: Joint committee on business and financial analysis Abstract:
This paper proposes a simple method for guiding researchers in developing quantitative models of economic fluctuations. We show that a large class of models, including models with various frictions, are equivalent to a prototype growth model with time varying wedges that, at least on face value, look like time-varying productivity, labor taxes, and capital income taxes. We label the time varying wedges as efficiency wedges, labor wedges, and investment wedges. We use data to measure these wedges and then feed them back into the prototype growth model. We then assess the fraction of fluctuations accounted for by these wedges during the great depressions of the 1930s in the United States, Germany, and Canada. We find that the efficiency and labor wedges in combination account for essentially all of the declines and subsequent recoveries. Investment wedge plays at best a minor role.
Keyword: Business cycle, Cycle, Economic fluctuations, Fluctuation, and Growth Subject (JEL): O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, O47 - Economic growth and aggregate productivity - Measurement of economic growth ; Aggregate productivity ; Cross-country output convergence, and E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles