Creator: Townsend, Robert M., 1948- Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 077 Abstract:
This thesis consists of a series of essays on the theory of exchange under uncertainty. The first essay examines the welfare implications of futures markets in the context of complete markets for contingent claims. It is shown that in a C-good, S-state world the equilibrium allocations resulting from the operation of pre-state noncontingent futures markets and post-state spot markets may be Pareto optimal. This proposition turns on the fact that a futures contract can be interpreted as a security whose state-specific return is the post-state spot price. If the matrix of spot prices has rank S, then, with futures and spot markets, agents can achieve the same allocations over states as with complete markets for contingent claims.
Stichwort: Uncertainty and Markets Fach: D80 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General, Y40 - Dissertations (unclassified), and G10 - General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Creator: Sargent, Thomas J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 032 Stichwort: Choices, Uncertainty, and Behavior Fach: D80 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General
Creator: King, Robert G. (Robert Graham), Wallace, Neil, and Weber, Warren E. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 307 Abstract:
This paper shows that there can be equilibria in which exchange rates display randomness unrelated to fundamentals. This is demonstrated in the context of a two currency, one good model, with three agent types and cash-in-advance constraints. A crucial feature is that the type i agents, for i=l, 2, must satisfy a cash—in-advance constraint by holding currency i, while type 3 agents can satisfy it by holding either currency. It is shown that real allocations vary across the multiple equilibria if markets for hedging exchange risk do not exist and that the randomness is innocuous if complete markets exist.
Stichwort: Foreign exchange rates, Currencies, and Macroeconomics Fach: F31 - Foreign Exchange and E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics: General
Creator: Rich, Robert W., 1958- and Tracy, Joseph S., 1956- Series: Joint committee on business and financial analysis Abstract:
This paper examines data on point and probabilistic forecasts of inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We use this data to evaluate current strategies for the empirical modeling of forecast behavior. In particular, the analysis principally focuses on the relationship between ex post forecast errors and ex ante measures of uncertainty in order to assess the reliability of using proxies based on predictive accuracy to describe changes in predictive confidence. After we adjust the data to account for certain features in the conduct and construct of the survey, we find a significant and robust correlation between observed heteroskedasticity in the consensus forecast errors and forecast uncertainty. We also document that significant compositional effects are present in the data that are economically important in the case of forecast uncertainty, and may be related to differences in respondents' access to information.
Stichwort: Forecasting, Inflation, Uncertainty, Disagreement, and Conditional heteroskedasticity Fach: C12 - Econometric and statistical methods : General - Hypothesis testing, C22 - Single equation models ; Single variables - Time-series models ; Dynamic quantile regressions, and E37 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Forecasting and simulation
Creator: Chari, V. V. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 576 Abstract:
This chapter is an introductory essay to the volume Climate Change Economics: The Role of Uncertainty and Risk, edited by V. V. Chari and Robert Litterman. This volume consists of a collection of papers that were presented at "The Next Generation of Economic Models of Climate Change," a conference hosted by the Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute at the University of Minnesota.
Stichwort: Externalities, Greenhouse gases, and Global warming Fach: G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates and H41 - Public Goods
Creator: Green, Edward J. and Park, In-Uck Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 558 Abstract:
An intuitively natural consistency condition for contingent plans is necessary and sufficient for a contingent plan to be rationalized by maximization of conditional expected utility. One alternative theory of choice under uncertainty, the weighted-utility theory developed by Chew Soo Hong (1983) does not entail that contingent plans will generally satisfy this condition. Another alternative theory, the minimax theory as formulated by Savage (1972), does entail the consistency condition (at least for singleton-valued plans).
Creator: Smith, Bruce D. (Bruce David), 1954-2002 Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 225 Abstract:
A model of a labor market is developed in which agents possess private information about their own productivities. This has the property that firms may use unemployment to create appropriate self-selection incentives. When this is the case, existence of an equilibrium may require that employment be stochastic. This is true even though all uncertainty is necessarily resolved prior to hiring. Even when existence is not at issue, it may be privately as well as socially desirable to randomize employment prospects. Finally, it is argued that this "adverse selection" approach is consistent with traditional "Keynesian" approaches to macroeconomics, but avoids some of the arbitrary features of several "Keynesian models."
Stichwort: Randomized employment, Private information, Random employment, and Labor Fach: J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search and D83 - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
Creator: Camargo, Braz and Pastorino, Elena Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 475 Abstract:
We analyze commitment to employment in an environment in which an infinitely lived firm faces a sequence of finitely lived workers who differ in their ability to produce output. A worker’s ability is initially unknown to both the worker and the firm. A worker’s effort affects the information on ability conveyed by his performance. We characterize equilibria and show that they display commitment to employment only when effort has a persistent but delayed impact on output. In this case, by providing insurance against early termination, commitment to employment encourages workers to exert effort, thus improving the firm’s ability to identify workers’ talent. The incentive value of commitment to retention helps explain the use of probationary appointments in environments in which there is uncertainty about individual ability.
Stichwort: Career concerns, Retention, Learning, and Commitment Fach: C73 - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games; Repeated Games, D21 - Firm Behavior: Theory, J41 - Labor Contracts, and D83 - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness