Risultati della ricerca
Creator: Todd, Richard M. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 407 Abstract:
Doan, Litterman, and Sims have described a method for estimating Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) forecasting models. The method has been successfully applied to the U.S. macroeconomic dataset, which is relatively long and stable. Despite the brevity and volatility of the post-1976 Chilean macroeconomic dataset, this paper shows that a straightforward application of the DLS method to this dataset, with simple modifications to allow for delays in the release of data, also appears to satisfy at least one criterion of relative forecasting accuracy suggested by Doan, Litterman, and Sims. However, the forecast errors of the Chilean BVARs are still large in absolute terms.Also, the model's coefficients change sharply in periods marked by policy shifts, such as the floating of the peso in 1982.
Parola chiave: Bayesian autoregressive vector forecasting models and Chile Soggetto: O54 - Economywide Country Studies: Latin America; Caribbean
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- and Meza, Felipe Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 693 Abstract:
In 1950 Mexico entered an economic takeoff and grew rapidly for more than 30 years. Growth stopped during the crises of 1982–1995, despite major reforms, including liberalization of foreign trade and investment. Since then growth has been modest. We analyze the economic history of Mexico 1877–2010. We conclude that the growth 1950–1981 was driven by urbanization, industrialization, and education and that Mexico would have grown even more rapidly if trade and investment had been liberalized sooner. If Mexico is to resume rapid growth — so that it can approach U.S. levels of income — it needs further reforms.
Parola chiave: Economic growth, Mexico, and Total factor productivity Soggetto: O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, O54 - Economywide Country Studies: Latin America; Caribbean, and N16 - Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: Latin America; Caribbean
Creator: Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, 1953- and Ruhl, Kim J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 414 Abstract:
A sudden stop of capital flows into a developing country tends to be followed by a rapid switch from trade deficits to surpluses, a depreciation of the real exchange rate, and decreases in output and total factor productivity. Substantial reallocation takes place from the nontraded sector to the traded sector. We construct a multisector growth model, calibrate it to the Mexican economy, and use it to analyze Mexico's 1994–95 crisis. When subjected to a sudden stop, the model accounts for the trade balance reversal and the real exchange rate depreciation, but it cannot account for the decreases in GDP and TFP. Extending the model to include labor frictions and variable capital utilization, we still find that it cannot quantitatively account for the dynamics of output and productivity without losing the ability to account for the movements of other variables.
Parola chiave: Tradable, Nontradable, Mexico, Developing country crisis, Sudden stop, Real exchange rate, and Total factor productivity Soggetto: F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems, E21 - Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth, O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies, O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence, F21 - International Investment; Long-term Capital Movements, F32 - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements, and O54 - Economywide Country Studies: Latin America; Caribbean