Creator: Backus, David. and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 318 Abstract:
These notes are intended as a do-it-yourself course in economic growth along lines suggested by Lucas ("On the Mechanics of Economic Development"). We examine in turn the neoclassical growth model; theories of endogenous growth, including learning-by-doing, increasing returns to scale, and externalities; and dynamic comparative advantage in trade. Salient features of growing economies and microeconomic evidence on production processes are used to evaluate alternatives. Exercises supplement the text.
关键词: Returns to scale, Neoclassical growth, Learning-by-doing, Dynamic comparative advantage, and Technical change 学科: O42 - Economic growth and aggregate productivity - Monetary growth models, F11 - Trade - Neoclassical models of trade, and O33 - Technological change ; Research and development - Technological change : Choices and consequences ; Diffusion processes
Creator: Williamson, Stephen D. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 405 Abstract:
A model is constructed where banks provide access to a communication technology which facilitates trade. Bank liabilities may coexist with alternative means of payment in equilibrium, and there exist regions of the parameter space where banking dominates the payments system and where physical exchange media dominate. The model is consistent with some observations concerning the role of the banking system in economic development, and with characteristics of banking crises. In particular, in early stages of economic development: 1) rapid output growth is accompanied by an increasing share of banking in transactions activity and 2) there are recurrent banking "panics" where reductions in measured aggregate output coincide with increases in the use of alternative means of payment relative to bank liabilities. In later stages of development, growth slackens off, the share of banking in the payments system stabilizes and the economy is less likely to be subject to banking panics.
Prepared for a conference on "Models of Money and Intermediation," University of Western Ontario, October 1988. A preliminary version was presented at the NBER Summer Institute, July 1988.
关键词: Communication cost, Financial panic, Banks, Communication technology, and Banking panics 学科: O33 - Technological change ; Research and development - Technological change : Choices and consequences ; Diffusion processes and G21 - Financial institutions and services - Banks ; Other depository institutions ; Micro finance institutions ; Mortgages
Creator: Hansen, Gary D. (Gary Duane) and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 507 描述:
Presented at the ASSA meetings in Anaheim, CA.
关键词: 1990, Productivity, Recession, 1991, Technological shocks, Labor, Technology shock, and Knowledge 学科: O33 - Technological change ; Research and development - Technological change : Choices and consequences ; Diffusion processes and G14 - General financial markets - Information and market efficiency ; Event studies
Creator: Atkeson, Andrew. and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 513 Abstract:
In this paper, we build a model of the transition following large-scale economic reforms that predicts both a substantial drop in output and a prolonged pause in physical investment as the initial phase of the optimal transition following the reform. We model reform as a change in policy which induces agents to close existing enterprises using old technologies of production and to open up new enterprises adopting new technologies of production. The central idea of our paper is that it is costly to close old enterprises and open new enterprises because, in doing so, information capital built up about old enterprises is lost and time must pass before information capital about new enterprises can be acquired. Thus, an acceleration of the pace of industry evolution leads in the short run to a net loss of information capital, a drop in productivity, a recession, and a fall in physical investment. We calibrate our model of industry evolution, information capital, and transition to match micro data on industry evolution in the United States and macro data from the United States, Japan, and the former communist countries of Europe. We find that the loss of information capital that accompanies a major acceleration in the pace of industry evolution in an economy leads initially to a decade of recession and a five year pause in physical investment before the benefits of reform are realized.
关键词: Economic reform, Technological evolution, Policy change, Transition, Recession, Technology change, Information capital, and Industrial evolution 学科: O33 - Technological change ; Research and development - Technological change : Choices and consequences ; Diffusion processes and O25 - Development planning and policy - Industrial policy
Creator: Galor, Oded, 1953- and Weil, David N. Series: Productivity and the industrial revolution Abstract:
This paper develops a unified model of growth, population, and technological progress that is consistent with long-term historical evidence. The economy endogenously evolves through three phases. In the Malthusian regime, population growth is positively related to the level of income per capita. Technological progress is slow and is matched by proportional increases in population, so that output per capita is stable around a constant level. In the post-Malthusian regime, the growth rates of technology and total output increase. Population growth absorbs much of the growth of output, but income per capita does rise slowly. The economy endogenously undergoes a demographic transition in which the traditionally positive relationship between income per capita and population growth is reversed. In the Modern Growth regime, population growth is moderate or even negative, and income per capita rises rapidly. Two forces drive the transitions between regimes: First, technological progress is driven both by increases in the size of the population and by increases in the average level of education. Second, technological progress creates a state of disequilibrium, which raises the return to human capital and induces parents to substitute child quality for quantity.
关键词: Technological change, Malthusian, Growth, Development, Demographics, Demographic transition, Fertility, and Population 学科: O11 - Economic development - Macroeconomic analyses of economic development, J13 - Demographic economics - Fertility ; Family planning ; Child care ; Children ; Youth, O40 - Economic growth and aggregate productivity - General, and O33 - Technological change ; Research and development - Technological change : Choices and consequences ; Diffusion processes
Creator: Huggett, Mark. and Ospina, Sandra. Series: Productivity and the industrial revolution Abstract:
A number of theoretical models of technology adoption have been proposed that emphasize technological switching, loss of expertise and subsequent technology-specific learning. These models imply that measured productivity may initially fall and then later rise after the adoption of a new technology. This paper investigates whether or not this implication is a feature of plant-level data from the Colombian manufacturing sector. We regress measures of productivity growth at the plant level on a plant-specific measure of technology adoption and its lagged values. We find that...
关键词: Manufacturing, Embodied, Colombia, South America, Productivity, Technology, and Latin America 学科: D24 - Production and organizations - Production ; Cost ; Capital and total factor productivity ; Capacity, O14 - Economic development - Industrialization ; Manufacturing and service industries ; Choice of technology, L60 - Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General, and O33 - Technological change ; Research and development - Technological change : Choices and consequences ; Diffusion processes
Creator: Parente, Stephen L. and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Economic growth and development Abstract:
Technology change is modeled as the result of decisions of individuals and groups of individuals to adopt more advanced technologies. The structure is calibrated to the U.S. and postwar Japan growth experiences. Using this calibrated structure we explore how large the disparity in the effective tax rates on the returns to adopting technologies must be to account for the huge observed disparity in per capita income across countries. We find that this disparity is not implausibly large.
学科: O33 - Technological change ; Research and development - Technological change : Choices and consequences ; Diffusion processes and O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models