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Creator: Bordo, Michael D., Rappoport, Peter, and Schwartz, Anna J. (Anna Jacobson), 1915-2012 Series: Monetary theory and financial intermediation Abstract: In this paper we examine the evidence for two competing views of how monetary and financial disturbances influenced the real economy during the national banking era, 1880-1914. According to the monetarist view, monetary disturbances affected the real economy through changes on the liability side of the banking system's balance sheet independent of the composition of bank portfolios. According to the credit rationing view, equilibrium credit rationing in a world of asymmetric information can explain short-run fluctuations in real output. Using structural VARs we incorporate monetary variables in credit models and credit variables in monetarist models, with inconclusive results. To resolve this ambiguity, we invoke the institutional features of the national banking era. Most of the variation in bank loans is accounted for by loans secured by stock, which in turn reflect volatility in the stock market. When account is taken of the stock market, the influence of credit in the VAR model is greatly reduced, while the influence of money remains robust. The breakdown of the composition of bank loans into stock market loans (traded in open asset markets) and other business loans (a possible setting for credit rationing) reveals that other business loans remained remarkably stable over the business cycle.
Subject (JEL): N21 - Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913 and N11 - Macroeconomics and monetary economics ; Growth and fluctuations - United States ; Canada : Pre-1913 -
Creator: Weber, Warren E. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 634 Abstract: This paper describes a newly constructed data set of all U.S. state banks from 1782 to 1861. It contains the names and locations of all banks and branches that went into business and an estimate of when each operated. The compilation is based on reported balance sheets, listings in banknote reporters, and secondary sources. Based on these data, the paper presents a count of the number of banks and branches in business by state. I argue that my series are superior to previously existing ones for reasons of consistency, accuracy, and timing. The paper contains examples to support this argument.
Subject (JEL): N21 - Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913 -
Creator: Weber, Warren E. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 629 Abstract: This paper examines the pricing of statebank notes prior to 1860 using data on the discounts on these notes as quoted in New York, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. The study is organized around determining whether these banknotes were priced consistent with their expected net redemption value. It finds a bank’s notes had higher prices when it was redeeming it notes for specie than when is was suspended. However, although prices generally varied inversely with redemption costs, the relationship was not tight and persistent arbitrage opportunities existed.
Subject (JEL): N21 - Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913 -
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Creator: Weber, Warren E. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 695 Abstract: This paper examines two different clearing arrangements for bank liabilities. One was a profit-maximizing private entity, the Suffolk Banking System. It cleared notes for New England banks between 1827 and 1858. The other was a nonprofit collective, the clearinghouses organized in many cities beginning in 1853. The paper examines how well these arrangements prevented bank failures and acted as lenders of last resort. It finds the Suffolk system had fewer failures but acted less like a lender of last resort. It argues that these differences can be explained by the different incentives facing the Suffolk Bank and the members of clearinghouses.
Keyword: Banknotes, Moral hazard, and Clearinghouses Subject (JEL): N21 - Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913 and E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems -
Creator: Weber, Warren E. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 679 Abstract: Prior to 1861, several U.S. states established bank liability insurance schemes. One type was an insurance fund. Member banks paid into a state-run fund that paid bank creditors’ losses. A second scheme was a mutual guarantee system. Member banks were legally responsible for the liabilities of any insolvent bank. This paper’s hypothesis is that the moral hazard problem was controlled under a scheme to the degree that member banks had the power and incentive to control or modify others’ risk-taking behavior. Schemes that gave member banks both strong incentives and power were able to control the moral hazard problem better than schemes in which one or both features were weak. Empirical evidence on bank failures and losses on banks’ asset portfolios is consistent with this hypothesis.
Keyword: Banknotes, Moral hazard, and Deposit insurance Subject (JEL): N21 - Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913 and E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems -
Creator: Martin, Antoine, Monnet, Cyril, and Weber, Warren E. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 601 Abstract: The behavior of interest rates under the U.S. National Banking System is puzzling because of the apparent presence of persistent and large unexploited arbitrage opportunities for note issuing banks. Previous attempts to explain interest rate behavior have relied on the cost or the inelasticity of note issue. These attempts are not entirely satisfactory. Here we propose a new rationale to solve the puzzle. Inelastic note issuance arises endogenously because the marginal cost of issuing notes is an increasing function of circulation. We build a spatial separation model where some fraction of agents must move each period. Banknotes can be carried between locations; deposits cannot. Taking the model to the data on national banks, we find it matches the movements in long-term interest rates well. It also predicts movements in deposit rates during panics. However, the model displays more inelasticity of notes issuance than is in the data.
Keyword: National Banking System, Interest rates, Banknotes, and Spatial separation Subject (JEL): N21 - Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913 and E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems -
Creator: Weber, Warren E. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 344 Abstract: This study examines the pricing of U.S. state banknotes before 1860 using discount data from New York, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. The study determines whether these banknotes were priced consistent with their expected net redemption value as securities are. The evidence is mixed. Prices for a bank’s notes were higher when the bank was redeeming its notes for specie than when it was not, and banknote prices generally reflected the costs of note redemption. However, the relationship between prices and redemption costs was not tight, and there were cases in which the notes of distant banks went at par.
Keyword: Bank Notes, Currency, and State Banks Subject (JEL): N21 - Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913 and E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems -
Creator: Champ, Bruce, Wallace, Neil, and Weber, Warren E. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 161 Abstract: According to previous studies, the demand-liability feature of national bank notes did not present a problem for note-issuing banks because the nonbank public treated notes and other currency as perfect substitutes. However, that view, when combined with nonbindingness of the collateral restriction against note issue, itself an implication of the fact that some eligible collateral was not used for that purpose, implies that the safe short-term interest rate is pegged at the tax rate on note circulation. Since evidence on short-term interest rates is inconsistent with such a peg, that view must be rejected.
Keyword: Interest rates, Bank notes, and National banking system Subject (JEL): N21 - Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913 and E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems -
Creator: Ales, Laurence, Carapella, Francesca, Maziero, Pricila, and Weber, Warren E. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 641 Abstract: Prior to 1863, state-chartered banks in the United States issued notes–dollar-denominated promises to pay specie to the bearer on demand. Although these notes circulated at par locally, they usually were quoted at a discount outside the local area. These discounts varied by both the location of the bank and the location where the discount was being quoted. Further, these discounts were asymmetric across locations, meaning that the discounts quoted in location A on the notes of banks in location B generally differed from the discounts quoted in location B on the notes of banks in location A. Also, discounts generally increased when banks suspended payments on their notes. In this paper we construct a random matching model to qualitatively match these facts about banknote discounts. To attempt to account for locational differences, the model has agents that come from two distinct locations. Each location also has bankers that can issue notes. Banknotes are accepted in exchange because banks are required to produce when a banknote is presented for redemption and their past actions are public information. Overall, the model delivers predictions consistent with the behavior of discounts.
Keyword: Banknotes, Random matching, and Banks Subject (JEL): G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages, N21 - Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913, and E50 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General