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Creator: Ayres, João, Garcia, Márcio Gomes Pinto, Guillen, Diogo, and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 575 Abstract: Brazil has had a long period of high inflation. It peaked around 100 percent per year in 1964, decreased until the first oil shock (1973), but accelerated again afterward, reaching levels above 100 percent on average between 1980 and 1994. This last period coincided with severe balance of payments problems and economic stagnation that followed the external debt crisis in the early 1980s. We show that the high-inflation period (1960-1994) was characterized by a combination of fiscal deficits, passive monetary policy, and constraints on debt financing. The transition to the low-inflation period (1995-2016) was characterized by improvements in all of these features, but it did not lead to significant improvements in economic growth. In addition, we document a strong positive correlation between inflation rates and seigniorage revenues, although inflation rates are relatively high for modest levels of seigniorage revenues. Finally, we discuss the role of the weak institutional framework surrounding the fiscal and monetary authorities and the role of monetary passiveness and inflation indexation in accounting for the unique features of inflation dynamics in Brazil.
Palabra clave: Brazil's stagnation, Brazil's hyperinflation, Fiscal deficit, Stabilization plans, and Debt accounting Tema: E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems, H62 - National Deficit; Surplus, E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy, and H63 - National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt -
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Creator: Mehra, Rajnish, Piguillem, Facundo, and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 655 Abstract: There is a large amount of intermediated borrowing and lending between households. Some of it is intergenerational, but most is between older households. The average difference in borrowing and lending rates is over 2 percent. In this paper, we develop a model economy that displays these facts and matches not only the returns on assets but also their quantities. The heterogeneity giving rise to borrowing and lending and differences in equity holdings depends on differences in the strength of the bequest motive. In equilibrium, the lenders are annuity holders and the borrowers are those who have equity holdings, who live off its income when retired, and who leave a bequest. The borrowing rate and return on equity are the same in the absence of aggregate uncertainty. The divergence between borrowing and lending rates can thus give rise to an equity premium, even in a world without aggregate uncertainty.
Palabra clave: Government debt, Equity premium, Retirement, Aggregate intermediation, Life cycle savings, Borrowing, and Lending Tema: E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, G23 - Pension Funds; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors, H62 - National Deficit; Surplus, G10 - General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data), E20 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy: General (includes Measurement and Data), G11 - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions, D31 - Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions, H00 - Public Economics: General, G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates, and E21 - Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth -
Creator: Aiyagari, S. Rao Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 424 Palabra clave: Deficit, Tax policy, Federal government, Taxation, Tax, Tax rates, Taxes , and Budget management Tema: H21 - Taxation and Subsidies: Efficiency; Optimal Taxation and H62 - National Deficit; Surplus -
Creator: Smith, Bruce D. (Bruce David), 1954-2002 Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 237 Abstract: A model is presented in which governments can select real expenditure levels which are feasible, hut are sufficiently high that a balanced budget is impossible. Thus governments with large expenditures are committed to inflationary finance schemes. This is the case even though the governments in question have access to lump-sum taxes. In addition, the model can explain why poorer countries tend to make heavier use of the inflation tax than do wealthier countries, and can account for the existence of country-specific fiat monies.
Palabra clave: Government expenditure, Inflationary finance, Real expenditures, Inflation tax, and Deficit Tema: H62 - National Deficit; Surplus, H50 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General, and E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation -
Creator: Miller, Preston J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 220 Descripción: Working paper 220 was presented at The Economic Consequences of Government Deficits: an Economic Policy Conference, cosponsored by the Center for the Study of American Business and the Institute of Banking and Financial Markets at Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri, October 29-30, 1982.
Palabra clave: Tax policy, Federal debt, Deficit, Inflation, and Budget policy Tema: H62 - National Deficit; Surplus, E52 - Monetary Policy, H63 - National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt, and E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems -
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Creator: Miller, Preston J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 212 Palabra clave: Inflation policy, Bonds, Bond issue, Inflation tax, and Deficit Tema: H62 - National Deficit; Surplus and E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation -
Creator: Bryant, John B. and Wallace, Neil Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 123 Abstract: In "Open Market Operations in a Model of Regulated, Insured Intermediaries" [JPE, forthcoming] we show that once-for-all open market purchases need not be inflationary. Here we show this result can carry over to various stationary accommodation rules given stochastic deficits. In particular, the inflationary and deflationary effects of stochastic deficits are not offset by, nor welfare improved by, a monetary policy that leans toward monetarism. Moreover, a constant money growth rule is not in the class of stationary policies given the kind of stochastic deficit we analyze, which by itself is a serious indictment of the monetarist proposal.
Palabra clave: Accomodation rules, Inflation, Monetarism, Debt, and Deflation Tema: E51 - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers and H62 - National Deficit; Surplus -
Creator: Bryant, John B. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 121 Palabra clave: Interest, Nontransferable bonds, and Money Tema: H62 - National Deficit; Surplus and G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates