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Creator: Mehra, Rajnish, Piguillem, Facundo, and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 655 Abstract: There is a large amount of intermediated borrowing and lending between households. Some of it is intergenerational, but most is between older households. The average difference in borrowing and lending rates is over 2 percent. In this paper, we develop a model economy that displays these facts and matches not only the returns on assets but also their quantities. The heterogeneity giving rise to borrowing and lending and differences in equity holdings depends on differences in the strength of the bequest motive. In equilibrium, the lenders are annuity holders and the borrowers are those who have equity holdings, who live off its income when retired, and who leave a bequest. The borrowing rate and return on equity are the same in the absence of aggregate uncertainty. The divergence between borrowing and lending rates can thus give rise to an equity premium, even in a world without aggregate uncertainty.
Palabra clave: Retirement, Equity premium, Government debt, Borrowing, Aggregate intermediation, Life cycle savings, and Lending Tema: H62 - National Deficit; Surplus, G23 - Pension Funds; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors, G11 - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions, D31 - Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions, E21 - Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth, G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates, E20 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy: General (includes Measurement and Data), E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, H00 - Public Economics: General, and G10 - General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) -
Creator: Chari, V. V. and Christiano, Lawrence J. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 552 Abstract: The financialization view is that increased trading in commodity futures markets is associated with increases in the growth rate and volatility of commodity spot prices. This view gained credence be-cause in the 2000s trading volume increased sharply and many commodity prices rose and became more volatile. Using a large panel dataset we constructed, which includes commodities with and with-out futures markets, we find no empirical link between increased futures market trading and changes in price behavior. Our data sheds light on the economic role of futures markets. The conventional view is that futures markets provide one-way insurance by allowing outsiders, traders with no direct interest in a commodity, to insure insiders, traders with a direct interest. The data are not consistent with the conventional view and we argue that they point to an alternative mutual insurance view, in which all participants insure each other. We formalize this view in a model and show that it is consistent with key features of the data.
Palabra clave: Futures market returns, Spot price volatility, Open interest, and Net financial flows Tema: G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates, E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy, and G23 - Pension Funds; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors -
Creator: Atkeson, Andrew, Eisfeldt, Andrea L., and Weill, Pierre-Olivier Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 479 Abstract: We develop a model of equilibrium entry, trade, and price formation in over-the-counter (OTC) markets. Banks trade derivatives to share an aggregate risk subject to two trading frictions: they must pay a fixed entry cost, and they must limit the size of the positions taken by their traders because of risk-management concerns. Although all banks in our model are endowed with access to the same trading technology, some large banks endogenously arise as “dealers,” trading mainly to provide intermediation services, while medium sized banks endogenously participate as “customers” mainly to share risks. We use the model to address positive questions regarding the growth in OTC markets as trading frictions decline, and normative questions of how regulation of entry impacts welfare.
Palabra clave: Bargaining, Networks, Asset pricing, Trading limits, Welfare, and Entry Tema: G28 - Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation, G20 - Financial Institutions and Services: General, G23 - Pension Funds; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors, and L14 - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation; Networks -
Creator: Koijen, Ralph S. J. and Yogo, Motohiro Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 510 Abstract: We develop an asset pricing model with flexible heterogeneity in asset demand across investors, designed to match institutional and household holdings. A portfolio choice model implies characteristics-based demand when returns have a factor structure and expected returns and factor loadings depend on the assets' own characteristics. We propose an instrumental variables estimator for the characteristics-based demand system to address the endogeneity of demand and asset prices. Using U.S. stock market data, we illustrate how the model could be used to understand the role of institutions in asset market movements, volatility, and predictability.
Palabra clave: Liquidity, Institutional investors, Asset pricing model, Demand system, and Portfolio choice Tema: G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates and G23 - Pension Funds; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors