Creator: Chari, V. V., Jagannathan, Ravi., and Ofer, Aharon R. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 364 Abstract:
The fiscal year and the calendar year coincide for a large fraction of firms traded in the New York and American Stock Exchanges. It is therefore possible that part of the large positive abnormal return earned by stocks as a group during the first week of trading in January may be due to temporal resolution of uncertainty accompanying the end of the fiscal year. We study this hypothesis by examining whether stocks of firms with fiscal years ending in months other than December also realize positive abnormal returns, following the end of their fiscal years. We find that there are no excess returns for such firms in the first five trading days following the end of the fiscal year.
Keyword: Positive abnormal returns, Fiscal year, Cyclical behavior, Excess returns, Stock returns, and January effect Subject (JEL): G12 - General financial markets - Asset pricing ; Trading volume ; Bond interest rates and E32 - Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles - Business fluctuations ; Cycles
Creator: Wallace, Neil. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 347 Description:
The Harry G. Johnson Lecture, presented at the 1987 A.U.T.E. and the Royal Economic Society Conference, Aberyswyth, April 1-4.
Keyword: Inside money, Equilibrium model, Monetary theory, Assets, Outside money, and Currency Subject (JEL): G12 - General financial markets - Asset pricing ; Trading volume ; Bond interest rates and E40 - Money and interest rates - General
Creator: Lacker, Jeffrey Malcolm. and Schreft, Stacey Lee Series: Monetary theory and financial intermediation Abstract:
We describe a stochastic economic environment in which the mix of money and trade credit used as means of payment is endogenous. The economy has an infinite horizon, spatial separation and a credit-related transaction cost, but no capital. We find that the equilibrium prices of arbitrary contingent claims to future currency differ from those from one-good cash-in-advance models. This anomaly is directly related to the endogeneity of the mix of media of exchange used. In particular, nominal interest rates affect the risk-free real rate of return. The model also has implications for some long-standing issues in monetary policy and for time series analysis using money and trade credit.
Subject (JEL): G12 - General financial markets - Asset pricing ; Trading volume ; Bond interest rates and E42 - Money and interest rates - Monetary systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the monetary system ; Payment systems
Creator: Allen, Franklin, 1956- and Gale, Douglas. Series: Monetary theory and financial intermediation Abstract:
Traditional theories of asset pricing assume there is complete market participation so all investors participate in all markets. In this case changes in preferences typically have only a small effect on asset prices and are not an important determinant of asset price volatility. However, there is considerable empirical evidence that most investors participate in a limited number of markets. We show that limited market participation can amplify the effect of changes in preferences so that an arbitrarily small degree of aggregate uncertainty in preferences can cause a large degree of price volatility. We also show that in addition to this equilibrium with limited participation and volatile asset prices, there may exist a Pareto-preferred equilibrium with complete participation and less volatility.
Subject (JEL): C58 - Financial Econometrics and G12 - General financial markets - Asset pricing ; Trading volume ; Bond interest rates
Creator: Alvarez, Fernando, 1964- and Jermann, Urban J. Series: Endogenous incompleteness Abstract:
We study the asset pricing implications of a multi-agent endowment economy where agents can default on debt. We build on the environment studied by Kocherlakota (1995) and Kehoe and Levine (1993). We present an equilibrium concept for an economy with complete markets and with endogenous solvency constraints. These solvency constraints prevent default, but at the cost of reduced risk sharing. We show that versions of the classical welfare theorems hold for this equilibrium definition. We characterize the pricing kernel, and compare it to the one for economies without participation constraints: interest rates are lower and risk premia depend on the covariance of the idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks.
Keyword: Equilibrium, Default, Solvency constraints, Risk, Shocks, and Assets Subject (JEL): G12 - General financial markets - Asset pricing ; Trading volume ; Bond interest rates and D50 - General equilibrium and disequilibrium - General
Creator: Martin, Vance, 1955- and Pagan, Adrian R. Series: Simulation-based inference in econometrics Abstract:
Procedures for computing the parameters of a broad class of multifactor continuous time models of the term structure based on indirect estimation methods are proposed. The approach consists of simulating the unknown factors from a set of stochastic differential equations which are used to compute synthetic bond yields. The bond yields are calibrated with actual bond yields via an auxiliary model. The approach circumvents many of the difficulties associated with direct estimation of this class of models using maximum likelihood. In particular, the paper addresses the identification issues arising from singularities in the yields and spreads which tend not to be recognised in existing estimation procedures and thereby overcome potential misspecification problems inherrent in direct methods. Indirect estimates of single and multifactor models are computed and compared with the estimates based on existing estimation procedures.
Keyword: Continous time models, Indirect estimation, Multifactor models, Term structure, Testing factor models, Stochastic differential equations, and Singularities Subject (JEL): C30 - Multiple or simultaneous equation models - General, C51 - Econometric modeling - Model construction and estimation, and G12 - General financial markets - Asset pricing ; Trading volume ; Bond interest rates
Creator: Ostroy, Joseph M. and Potter, Simon M. Series: Finance, fluctuations, and development Abstract:
We formulate a representative consumer model of intertemporal resource reallocation in which fluctuations in equity prices contribute to the smoothing of consumption flows. Features of the model include (a) an incompletely observable stochastic process of productivity shocks leading to fluctuating confidence of beliefs and (b) technologies involving commitments of a resource good. These features are exploited to show that (1) equities are not a representative form of total wealth and (2) the valuation of currently active firms is not representative of the valuation of all firms. We examine the implications of (1) and (2) to argue that empirical findings for the volatility and 'value shortfall' of equity prices may be consistent with a frictionless representative consumer model having a low degree of risk-aversion. Simulation of a calibrated version of the model for a risk-neutral consumer shows that when the 'data' is analyzed according to current econometric procedures, it is found to exhibit volatility of the same order of magnitude as that found in the actual data, although the model contains no excess volatility.
Keyword: Technological commitments, Equity premium, Uncertainty of beliefs, Excess volatility, and Value shortfall Subject (JEL): G12 - General financial markets - Asset pricing ; Trading volume ; Bond interest rates, E44 - Money and interest rates - Financial markets and the macroeconomy, G14 - General financial markets - Information and market efficiency ; Event studies, and E13 - General aggregative models - Neoclassical
Creator: Bryant, John B. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 121 Keyword: Interest, Money, and Nontransferable bonds Subject (JEL): H62 - National budget, deficit, and debt - Deficit ; Surplus and G12 - General financial markets - Asset pricing ; Trading volume ; Bond interest rates
Creator: Aiyagari, S. Rao. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 518 Abstract:
This paper is about a useful way of taking account of frictions in asset pricing and macroeconomics. I start by noting that complete frictionless markets models have a number of empirical deficiencies. Then I suggest an alternative class of models with incomplete markets and heterogenous agents which can also accommodate a variety of other frictions. These models are quantitatively attractive and computationally feasible and have the potential to overcome many or all of the empirical deficiencies of complete frictionless markets models. The incomplete markets model can also differ significantly from the complete frictionless markets model on some important policy questions.
Keyword: Friction, Frictionless market model, Asset pricing, Macroeconomics, and Incomplete markets Subject (JEL): E13 - General aggregative models - Neoclassical and G12 - General financial markets - Asset pricing ; Trading volume ; Bond interest rates
Creator: Glosten, Lawrence R., Jagannathan, Ravi., and Runkle, David Edward. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Dept.) Number: 505 Abstract:
Earlier researchers have found either no relation or a positive relation between the conditional expected return and the conditional variance of the monthly excess return on stocks when they used the standard GARCH-M model. This is in contrast to the negative relation found when other approaches were used to model conditional variance. We show that the difference in the estimated relation arises because the standard GARCH-M model is misspecified. When the standard model is modified allow for (i) the presence for seasonal patterns in volatility, (ii) positive and negative innovations to returns to having different impacts on conditional volatility, and (iii) nominal interest rates to affect conditional variance, we once again find support for a negative relation. Using the modified GARCH-M model, we also show that there is little evidence to support the traditional view that conditional volatility is highly persistent. Also, positive unanticipated returns result in a downward revision of the conditional volatility whereas negative unanticipated returns result in an upward revision of conditional volatility of a similar magnitude. Hence the time series properties of the monthly excess return on stocks appear to be substantially different from that of the daily excess return on stocks.
Keyword: Asset valuation, Return rate, Risk, Rate of return, Stocks, and Stock market Subject (JEL): G11 - General financial markets - Portfolio choice ; Investment decisions and G12 - General financial markets - Asset pricing ; Trading volume ; Bond interest rates