Risultati della ricerca
Creator: Mulligan, Casey B. Series: Great depressions of the twentieth century Abstract:
I prove some theorems for competitive equilibria in the presence of distortionary taxes and other restraints of trade, and use those theorems to motivate an algorithm for (exactly) computing and empirically evaluating competitive equilibria in dynamic economies. Although its economics is relatively sophisticated, the algorithm is so computationally economical that it can be implemented with a few lines in a spreadsheet. Although a competitive equilibrium models interactions between all sectors, all consumer types, and all time periods, I show how my algorithm permits separate empirical evaluation of these pieces of the model and hence is practical even when very little data is available. For similar reasons, these evaluations are not particularly sensitive to how data is partitioned into "trends" and "cycles." I then compute a real business cycle model with distortionary taxes that fits aggregate U.S. time series for the period 1929-50 and conclude that, if it is to explain aggregate behavior during the period, government policy must have heavily taxed labor income during the Great Depression and lightly taxed it during the war. In other words, the challenge for the competitive equilibrium approach is not so much why output might change over time, but why the marginal product of labor and the marginal value of leisure diverged so much and why that wedge persisted so long. In this sense, explaining aggregate behavior during the period has been reduced to a public finance question - were actual government policies distorting behavior in the same direction and magnitude as government policies in the model?
Parola chiave: Depressions, Taxes, World War 2, and Competitive equilibrium models Soggetto: H30 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General, E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles, and C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
Creator: Cooley, Thomas F., Hansen, Gary D. (Gary Duane), and Prescott, Edward C. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 535 Parola chiave: Equilibrium and Business cycle Soggetto: E13 - General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical and E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Creator: Green, Edward J. and Oh, Soo-Nam Series: Finance, fluctuations, and development Parola chiave: Credit, Consumption models, Business cycles, Household, Consumer, Microeconomics, and Panel study of income dynamics Soggetto: D11 - Consumer Economics: Theory, D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles, and E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Creator: Chari, V. V., Christiano, Lawrence J., and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 520 Parola chiave: Business cycles, Policy analysis, Exogenous growth model, Monetary policy, Optimal taxation, Friedman rule, and Fiscal policy Soggetto: E52 - Monetary Policy and E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Creator: Backus, David and Kehoe, Patrick J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 348 Abstract:
We derive the empirical implications of a popular class of international macroeconomic models. The real economy is a stochastic exchange model with complete markets. A standard result is that cross-country risk sharing implies perfect correlation between consumption paths across countries. With mild restrictions on the endowment process ii also implies a positive correlation between net exports and output in every country. We introduce money using cash-in-advance constraints and show that the implications for real variables carry over into the monetary economy. These dichotomy and neutrality propositions generalize those in the literature to stochastic environments with heterogeneous agents, and do not require the cash-in-advance constraint to bind in every state. They imply that any correlation between the nominal exchange rate and the balance of trade can be made consistent with the theory.
Parola chiave: Cash-in-advance, Government finance, Risk-sharing, Monetary policy, and Exchange rates Soggetto: F30 - International Finance: General, D46 - Value Theory, and E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Creator: Geweke, John Series: New methods in business cycle research Abstract:
A simple stochastic model of the firm is constructed in which a dynamic monopolist who maximizes a discounted profits stream subject to labor adjustment costs and given factor prices sets output price as a distributed lag of past wages and input prices. If the observed relation of wages and prices in manufacturing arises solely from this behavior then wages and input prices are exogenous with respect to output prices. In tests using quarterly and monthly series for the straight time wage, an index of raw materials prices and the wholesale price index for manufacturing and its durable and nondurable subsectors this hypothesis cannot be refuted for the period 1955:1 to 1971:11. During the period 1926:1 to 1940:11, however, symmetrically opposite behavior is observed manufacturing wholesale prices are exogenous with respect to the wage rate, a relation which can arise if dynamically monopsonistic firms compete in product markets. Neither structural relation has withstood direct wage and price controls.
Parola chiave: Wholesale, Labor, Wages, Prices, and Manufacturing Soggetto: E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles, E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation, and L60 - Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General