Creator: Aiyagari, S. Rao and Wallace, Neil Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 226 Abstract:
This note presents a model whose competitive equilibrium can be consistent with the observation that current labor market conditions affect the well-being of new entrants more than they do that of senior workers. The model uses the notion that new entrants are not around soon enough to participate in risk-sharing contingent on the shocks that determine the equilibrium marginal products of first-period employment. This timing notion is formalized using a stochastic overlapping generations model.
A version of this paper was presented at the Econometric Society Summer Meeting, Cornell University, June 16-19, 1982.
学科: J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure and E30 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Creator: Bryant, John B. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 099 Abstract:
This paper presents a monetarist model of the business cycle with price-setting firms. The model is estimated, and the point estimates used in simulations to illustrate the properties of the model. The real goods market is found to be stable, although subject to sharp changes in output. This model is consistent with rational expectations. Nevertheless, monetary policy can have a lasting impact, and the simulations show this to be the case. Fiscal policy too is found to influence the business cycle, but its short-run effects are substantially smaller than its impact effects. The possibility of an activist government policy in this model does not imply the efficiency of an activist policy.
关键词: Real goods market, Inventory cycle, Rational expectations, and Disequilibrium 学科: G31 - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies; Capacity and E30 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Creator: Martin, Antoine and Monnet, Cyril Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 603 Abstract:
This paper proposes a theory of when labor contract should be nominal or, instead, indexed. We find that, contracts should be indexed if prices are difficult to forecast and nominal otherwise. We use a principal-agent model developed by Jovanovic and Ueda (1997), with moral hazard, renegotiation, and where a signal (the nominal value of the sales of the agent) is observed before renegotiation takes place. We show that their result, that the optimal contract is nominal when agents must choose pure strategies, is robust to the case where agents can choose mixed strategies in the sense that, for certain parameters, the optimal contract is still nominal. For other parameters, however, we show that the optimal contract is indexed. Our findings are consistent with two empirical regularities. First prices are more volatile with higher inflation and, second, countries with high inflation tend to have indexed contracts. Our theory suggests that it is because prices are difficult to forecast in high inflation countries that contracts are indexed.
关键词: Theory of uncertainty and information and Nominal contracts 学科: E30 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data), J40 - Particular Labor Markets: General, and D80 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General
Creator: Katzman, Brett, 1966-, Kennan, John, and Wallace, Neil Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 595 Abstract:
The effects on ex ante optima of a lag in seeing monetary realizations are studied using a matching model of money. The main new ingredient in the model is meetings in which producers have more information than consumers. A consequence is that increases in the amount of money that occur with small enough probability can have negative impact effects on output, because it is optimal to shut down trade in such low probability meetings rather than have lower output when high probability realizations occur. The information lag also produces prices that do not respond much to current monetary realizations.
学科: E30 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data), E40 - Money and Interest Rates: General, and D82 - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
Creator: Wallace, Neil Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 568 Abstract:
Using an existing random matching model of money, I show that a once-for-all change in the quantity of money has short-run effects that are predominantly real and long-run effects that are in the direction of being predominantly nominal provided (i) the quantity of money is random and (ii) people learn about what happened to it only with a lag. The change in the quantity of money comes about through a random process of discovery that does not permit anyone to deduce the aggregate amount discovered when the change actually occurs.
学科: E30 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Creator: Adão, Bernardino, Correia, Isabel, and Teles, Pedro Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 680 Abstract:
We show that short and long nominal interest rates are independent monetary policy instruments. The pegging of both helps solving the problem of multiplicity that arises when only short rates are used as the instrument of policy. A peg of the nominal returns on assets of different maturities is equivalent to a peg of state-contingent interest rates. These are the rates that should be targeted in order to implement unique equilibria. At the zero bound, while it is still possible to target state-contingent interest rates, that is no longer equivalent to the target of the term structure.
关键词: Term structure, Long rates, Monetary policy, Maturities, Multiplicity of equilibria, Monetary policy instruments, Sticky prices, and Short rates 学科: E50 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General, E30 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data), and E40 - Money and Interest Rates: General
Creator: Arellano, Cristina, Bai, Yan, and Mihalache, Gabriel Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 555 Abstract:
Sovereign debt crises are associated with large and persistent declines in economic activity, disproportionately so for nontradable sectors. This paper documents this pattern using Spanish data and builds a two-sector dynamic quantitative model of sovereign default with capital accumulation. Recessions are very persistent in the model and more pronounced for nontraded sectors because of default risk. An adverse domestic shock increases the likelihood of default, limits capital inﬂows, and thus restricts the ability of the economy to exploit investment opportunities. The economy responds by reducing investment and reallocating capital toward the traded sector to support debt service payments. The real exchange rate depreciates, a reﬂection of the scarcity of traded goods. We ﬁnd that these mechanisms are quantitatively important for rationalizing the experience of Spain during the recent debt crisis.
关键词: Capital accumulation, Traded and nontraded production, European debt crisis, Real exchange rate, and Sovereign default with production economy 学科: E30 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) and F30 - International Finance: General
Creator: Chahrour, Ryan and Stevens, Lacramioara Luminita Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 522 Abstract:
We develop a model of equilibrium price dispersion via retailer search and show that the degree of market segmentation within and across countries cannot be separately identified by good-level price data alone. We augment a set of well-known empirical facts about the failure of the law of one price with data on aggregate intranational and international trade quantities, and calibrate the model to match price and quantity facts simultaneously. The calibrated model matches the data very well and implies that within-country markets are strongly segmented, while international borders contribute virtually no additional market segmentation.
关键词: Real exchange rate, Law of one price, and Border effect 学科: F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics, F30 - International Finance: General, and E30 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Creator: Kehoe, Patrick J. and Midrigan, Virgiliu Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 413 Abstract:
Recent studies say prices change about every four months. Economists have interpreted this high frequency as evidence against the importance of sticky prices for the real effects of monetary policy. Theory implies that this interpretation is correct if most price changes are regular, but not if most are temporary, as in the data. Temporary changes have a striking feature: after such a change, the nominal price tends to return exactly to its preexisting level. We study versions of Calvo and menu cost models that replicate this feature. Both models predict that the degree of aggregate price stickiness is determined mostly by the frequency of regular price changes, not by the combined frequency of temporary and regular price changes. Since regular prices are sticky in the data, the models predict a substantial degree of aggregate price stickiness even though micro prices change frequently. In particular, the aggregate price level in our models is as sticky as in standard models in which micro prices change about once a year. In this sense, prices are sticky after all.
关键词: Sticky prices, Menu costs, and Sales 学科: E30 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data), E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles, and E24 - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity