Risultati della ricerca
Creator: Stutzer, Michael J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 140 Abstract:
The qualitative dynamics of a discrete time version of a deterministic, continuous time, nonlinear macro model formulated by Haavelmo are fully characterized. The methods of symbolic dynamics and ergodic theory are shown to provide a simple, effective means of analyzing the behavior of the resulting one-parameter family of first-order, deterministic, nonlinear difference equations. A complex periodic and random "aperiodic" orbit structure dependent on a key structural parameter is present, which contrasts with the total absence of such complexity in Haavelmo's continuous time version. Several implications for dynamic economic modelling are discussed.
Parola chiave: Symbolic dynamics, Continuous time model, and Erdogic theory Soggetto: E10 - General Aggregative Models: General and C01 - Econometrics
Creator: Wallace, Neil Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 018 Parola chiave: Foreign exchange rates, Capital movements, and Foreign earning asset Soggetto: F31 - Foreign Exchange, E10 - General Aggregative Models: General, E62 - Fiscal Policy, and E22 - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
Creator: Stutzer, Michael J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 242 Parola chiave: Macroanalysis, Microanalysis, and Gibbs formalism Soggetto: D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles, E10 - General Aggregative Models: General, and D50 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium: General
Creator: Luttmer, Erzo G. J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 696 Abstract:
This paper presents a simple formula that relates the tail index of the firm size distribution to the aggregate speed with which an economy converges to its balanced growth path. The fact that there are so many firms in the right tail implies that aggregate shocks that permanently destroy employment among incumbent firms, rather than cause these firms to scale back temporarily, are followed by slow recoveries. This is true despite the presence of many rapidly growing firms. Aggregate convergence rates are non-linear: they can be very high for economies far below the balanced growth path and very low for advanced economies.
Parola chiave: Recessions, Firm growth, Firm size distribution, and Recoveries Soggetto: L10 - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance: General and E10 - General Aggregative Models: General
Creator: Luttmer, Erzo G. J. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 678 Abstract:
Although employment at individual firms tends to be highly non-stationary, the employment size distribution of all firms in the United States appears to be stationary. It closely resembles a Pareto distribution. There is a lot of entry and exit, mostly of small firms. This paper surveys general equilibrium models that can be used to interpret these facts and explores the role of innovation by new and incumbent firms in determining aggregate growth. The existence of a balanced growth path with a stationary employment size distribution depends crucially on assumptions made about the cost of entry. Some type of labor must be an essential input in setting up new firms.
Parola chiave: Selection, Organization capital, Heterogeneous productivity, and Firm size distribution Soggetto: E10 - General Aggregative Models: General and O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
Creator: Chari, V. V., Kehoe, Patrick J., and McGrattan, Ellen R. Series: Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 625 Abstract:
This paper proposes a simple method for guiding researchers in developing quantitative models of economic fluctuations. We show that a large class of models, including models with various frictions, are equivalent to a prototype growth model with time-varying wedges that, at least at face value, look like time-varying productivity, labor taxes, and capital income taxes. We label the time-varying wedges as efficiency wedges, labor wedges, and investment wedges. We use data to measure these wedges and then feed them back into the prototype growth model. We then assess the fraction of fluctuations accounted for by these wedges during the great depressions of the 1930s in the United States, Germany, and Canada. We find that the efficiency and labor wedges in combination account for essentially all of the declines and subsequent recoveries. Investment wedges play, at best, a minor role.
Parola chiave: Financial frictions, Productivity decline, Capacity utilization, Equivalence theorems, Sticky wages, and Great Depression Soggetto: E10 - General Aggregative Models: General and E12 - General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
Creator: Williamson, Stephen D. and Wright, Randall D. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 443 Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to discuss some of the models used in New Monetarist Economics, which is our label for a body of recent work on money, banking, payments systems, asset markets, and related topics. A key principle in New Monetarism is that solid microfoundations are critical for understanding monetary issues. We survey recent papers on monetary theory, showing how they build on common foundations. We then lay out a tractable benchmark version of the model that allows us to address a variety of issues. We use it to analyze some classic economic topics, like the welfare effects of inflation, the relationship between money and capital accumulation, and the Phillips curve. We also extend the benchmark model in new ways, and show how it can be used to generate new insights in the study of payments, banking, and asset markets.
Parola chiave: New Monetarism, Monetary Theory, and Monetary Policy Soggetto: E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics: General, E50 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General, E10 - General Aggregative Models: General, and E40 - Money and Interest Rates: General
Creator: Williamson, Stephen D. and Wright, Randall D. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 442 Abstract:
This essay articulates the principles and practices of New Monetarism, our label for a recent body of work on money, banking, payments, and asset markets. We first discuss methodological issues distinguishing our approach from others: New Monetarism has something in common with Old Monetarism, but there are also important differences; it has little in common with Keynesianism. We describe the principles of these schools and contrast them with our approach. To show how it works, in practice, we build a benchmark New Monetarist model, and use it to study several issues, including the cost of inflation, liquidity and asset trading. We also develop a new model of banking.
Soggetto: E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics: General, E50 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General, E10 - General Aggregative Models: General, and E40 - Money and Interest Rates: General
Creator: Boldrin, Michele, De Nardi, Mariacristina, and Jones, Larry E. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 359 Abstract:
The data show that an increase in government provided old-age pensions is strongly correlated with a reduction in fertility. What type of model is consistent with this finding? We explore this question using two models of fertility: one by Barro and Becker (1989), and one inspired by Caldwell (1978, 1982) and developed by Boldrin and Jones (2002). In Barro and Becker’s model parents have children because they perceive their children’s lives as a continuation of their own. In Boldrin and Jones’ framework parents procreate because children care about their parents’ utility, and thus provide them with old-age transfers. The effect of increases in government provided pensions on fertility in the Barro and Becker model is very small, whereas the effect on fertility in the Boldrin and Jones model is sizeable and accounts for between 55 and 65% of the observed Europe-U.S. fertility differences both across countries and across time.
Parola chiave: Intra-family transfers, Financial Markets, Fertility, and Social Security Soggetto: O10 - Economic Development: General, J10 - Demographic Economics: General, E10 - General Aggregative Models: General, and J13 - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
Creator: Chari, V. V., Kehoe, Patrick J., and McGrattan, Ellen R. Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 328 Abstract:
We propose a simple method to help researchers develop quantitative models of economic fluctuations. The method rests on the insight that many models are equivalent to a prototype growth model with time-varying wedges which resemble productivity, labor and investment taxes, and government consumption. Wedges corresponding to these variables—efficiency, labor, investment, and government consumption wedges—are measured and then fed back into the model in order to assess the fraction of various fluctuations they account for. Applying this method to U.S. data for the Great Depression and the 1982 recession reveals that the efficiency and labor wedges together account for essentially all of the fluctuations; the investment wedge plays a decidedly tertiary role, and the government consumption wedge, none. Analyses of the entire postwar period and alternative model specifications support these results. Models with frictions manifested primarily as investment wedges are thus not promising for the study of business cycles. (See Additional Material for a response to Christiano and Davis (2006).)
Parola chiave: Sticky wages, Sticky prices, Great Depression , Productivity decline, Equivalence theorems, Financial frictions, and Capacity utilization Soggetto: E12 - General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian and E10 - General Aggregative Models: General
Creator: King, Robert G. (Robert Graham) and Thomas, Julia Series: Staff report (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research Department) Number: 327 Abstract:
Many kinds of economic behavior involve discrete and occasional individual choices. Despite this, econometric partial adjustment models perform relatively well at the aggregate level. Analyzing the classic employment adjustment problem, we show how such microeconomic adjustment is well described by a new form of partial adjustment model that aggregates the actions of heterogeneous producers.
We develop a model where individual establishments infrequently alter the sizes of their workforces because such adjustments involve fixed costs. In the market equilibrium, employment responses to aggregate disturbances include changes both in target employments selected by individual establishments and in the measure of establishments actively undertaking adjustment. Yet the model retains a partial adjustment flavor in its aggregate responses. Moreover, in contrast to existing discrete adjustment models, our generalized partial adjustment model is sufficiently tractable to allow general equilibrium analysis, and it naturally extends to accommodate persistent differences in productivity across establishments in general equilibrium.
Parola chiave: Employment Dynamics, Partial Adjustment, and (S,s) Adjustment Soggetto: E20 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy: General (includes Measurement and Data) and E10 - General Aggregative Models: General